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Curious about an ICM spot with 17 left in the Sunday Storm

ScotFish

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June 2, 2017 - 7:04 am

Hey guys,

I’m curious about a spot I played in my recent deep run in the Sunday Storm. I’m pretty confident that chip equity wise I should be ok against his range, but how much should I be tightening my shoving range to take into account how many villains will over adjust their own range for fear of busting?

PokerStars Hand #170111819797: Tournament #1897346370, $10+$1 USD Hold’em No Limit – Level LII (400000/800000) – 2017/05/08 3:32:30 WET [2017/05/07 22:32:30 ET]
Table ‘1897346370 1222’ 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: garyknife (27832012 in chips)
Seat 2: JJoker-999- (4920060 in chips)
Seat 3: ScotLib (12269664 in chips)
Seat 4: NorbertasP (33419233 in chips)
Seat 5: who_next421 (6887595 in chips)
Seat 6: Synalka (11907202 in chips)
Seat 7: dr4gosak47 (54095692 in chips)
Seat 8: billy pow! (21397527 in chips)
garyknife: posts the ante 80000
JJoker-999-: posts the ante 80000
ScotLib: posts the ante 80000
NorbertasP: posts the ante 80000
who_next421: posts the ante 80000
Synalka: posts the ante 80000
dr4gosak47: posts the ante 80000
billy pow!: posts the ante 80000
ScotLib: posts small blind 400000
NorbertasP: posts big blind 800000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ScotLib [8h 8d]
who_next421: raises 800000 to 1600000
Synalka: folds
dr4gosak47: folds
billy pow!: folds
garyknife: folds
JJoker-999-: folds
ScotLib: raises 10589664 to 12189664 and is all-in
NorbertasP: folds
who_next421: calls 5207595 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (5382069) returned to ScotLib
*** FLOP *** [2c 5s 3c]
*** TURN *** [2c 5s 3c] [Td]
*** RIVER *** [2c 5s 3c Td] [Ah]
*** SHOW DOWN ***

Reveal Spoiler

ScotLib: shows [8h 8d] (a pair of Eights)
who_next421: shows [Ac Ad] (three of a kind, Aces)
who_next421 collected 15055190 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 15055190 | Rake 0
Board [2c 5s 3c Td Ah]
Seat 1: garyknife folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 2: JJoker-999- (button) folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 3: ScotLib (small blind) showed [8h 8d] and lost with a pair of Eights
Seat 4: NorbertasP (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: who_next421 showed [Ac Ad] and won (15055190) with three of a kind, Aces
Seat 6: Synalka folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 7: dr4gosak47 folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 8: billy pow! folded before Flop (didn’t bet)

By my memory I was roughly the 10th largest stack left, and it was the usual storm payout structure, so I was guaranteed $1k for 17th, jumping by around $300 for the next couple of payjumps before FT beginning to really ramp up to a $27k first prize.

To summarise – would you take this spot? Is his min raise UTG too fishy? If he’d shoved would you fold? What would the bottom of your rnage be in this spot?

Thanks!

almofadinhas

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June 6, 2017 - 11:23 am

V have less than 9bb, when I see short stacks opening for a mini raise I usually give then a stronger range (close to 88+,AQs+,AQo+) , unless I have seen them doing it before, I play micro stakes, so usually they don´t do that to represent a strong range.

I would GII with TT+, AQs, AK … 99 will be close given that strong range

ScotFish

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June 6, 2017 - 1:52 pm

Thanks almofadinhas – In my experience it’s either a much stronger range, or a complete fish who doesn’t understand their stack size.

In retrospect, the fact we were so deep in the tournament should have clued me to the fact they were much less likely to be clueless.

theginger45

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June 9, 2017 - 2:20 pm

ScotFish said
Thanks almofadinhas – In my experience it’s either a much stronger range, or a complete fish who doesn’t understand their stack size.

In retrospect, the fact we were so deep in the tournament should have clued me to the fact they were much less likely to be clueless.

The underlined is not good logic. It’s the Sunday Storm – 99% of players in the tournament are mostly clueless. The fact that you’re deep just means this guy ran good.

There’s very little chance villain is any good if they’re doing this at this stage – they should be playing push-fold with ICM concerns. That said, if they’re ever raise-folding here, or if they’re raise-calling worse hands, you’re probably fine in chipEV terms. The question is whether ICM supports the shove, and I think there’s a decent chance it doesn’t.

If villain was raise-folding a lot and you were only going to get called something like 30-50% of the time here, this would likely be fine in ICM terms. As it is, it’s marginal – you’re probably getting called for 9bb 80-100% of the time, which means that around 50-55% of the time you’re going to be down to 6bb here after losing the all-in, and that’s not accounting for players behind you waking up with strong hands.

If villain shoves preflop it’s very close – it should be a call against good villains but some low stakes fish will be absurdly tight shoving 9bb in this spot. I think with the raise, I probably go with 99+ AQs+ in the expectation of some small amount of fold equity (and in recognition that building a stack at this stage and going into the FT with better equity helps us a lot) but I think I would fold 88. It’s definitely close though, and unlikely to be a huge mistake unless villain is super tight or their range is exclusively strong pairs.

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