July 31, 2012
Hi everyone. New to TPE and I figured I'd start off with an odd hand I ran into in a live $300 event at The Bike in L.A.
Blinds are 100/200 with no ante. MP2 limps, I limp in the Hijack with 78, SB limps, and the BB checks.
Flop is 577. SB leads out for 450 into the 800 pot (SB has about 5.5k behind), and BB shoves for 24k pretty quickly. MP2 folds, and it's on me. I have about 18k, and my read on the BB so far has been a fairly tight passive player. I've rarely seen her bet, content to check-call hands like AQ on an A high board. And when I have seen her bet, it was in the “normal” betting range. There haven't been any crazy plays like this at the table, and it is definitely the biggest pot at the table at this point by far. Here's my thought process:
If she has a 7 here, she can have any kicker since she just checked in the BB. With my 78, I beat 76-72 (minus 75 of course), lose to 79+ and 55, and tie 78. From a purely mathematical standpoint, I should fold here since there are more hands that beat me than I beat. However, I can't assume the BB has either a 7 or 55 here 100% of the time, which may tip the scales toward calling. On the other hand, I only have 200 invested in this pot and could easily fold, leaving myself 90 BBs. But why would someone with a 7 or 55 take this line in a small 4-way limped pot? 99% of the time, the BB will just rake in the measly 1250 pot. With the crazy all-in on the flop, I find it difficult to put the BB on a hand or even a range of hands because it's impossible to go through the thought process of someone who isn't thinking. The only real conclusion I could draw was that the BB was a bad player…I just didn't know to what degree.
Thoughts/perspectives are appreciated. Also, I don't know what the protocol is for revealing my decision, so I'll hold off and possibly post it later.
Thanks.
June 2, 2012
Wow crazy spot. If you haven't seen her really get out of line then I think she's doing this with flush draws or good 7x's. 86cc comes to mind where we are a 55% fave. I either think she has a big draw or you are crushed a majority of the time. A smaller percentage of the time you will have her crushed when she has a weaker 7x. I honeslty think I just fold because I know I have a huge edge on the field and don't necessarily need to take this spot. I have been in simliar situations before where I have a pretty solid read and have folded monsters and made the correct decision. Another thing to keep in mind is that when she shoves there are 3 people to act behind her (MP, You, and SB) so that makes her shove stronger as well. Would she really do this with 72-74, maybe but I think it's unlikely. Sigh fold and move onto the next hand.
May 30, 2012
Spew fold.. this is too much to call with live when it seems like you have a good idea about the other players at the table..
As soon as she shoved i thought of a big combo draw like 98 or 86 or 64 which we arent that far ahead of..
and lets face it, even if she does have a weaker 7 than us we chop around 20% of the time anyway!
I hate these situations especially live because its such a shame to fold a good hand due to it being so close..
Move on to the next hand as jlude says and log that bet sizing tell for future reference
July 20, 2012
This overjam stinks of a big draw to me. Sometimes it will be 7x, less often (but still sometimes 75 or 55), and could even be 88-10 10 or 5x from some players though probably not her based on your reads. So against her likely range you are often racing and sometimes way behind, you are never far ahead (even if she is jamming eg 72 then you are chopping a fair amount). Overall I just sigh fold.
One other thing though is that I don't like the overlimp pre here, the hand just isn't strong enough to bother, if there were antes then iso could be an option.
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