I don’t think shove is an option, since villain is unlikely to raise a worse value hand like KJ, and there are really only two combos of KJ in villain’s range (KJcc and KJhh). I also don’t really think folding is an option, since villain can very easily raise hands like KQss and AQss here.

As long as we’re comfortable that villain’s cold-calling frequency in this spot is high enough that they can have more than just a couple of combos of flush/straight draws in addition to their 6 combos of sets, then I think calling and planning to call it off on any blank turn is probably a good way to go.

joelshitshow said
With 50K left and 59K in the pot, a check-shove won’t have any fold equity on the turn. Would you open-shove any turn? Would you check/fold any spade?

I think check-folding a spade is reasonable. I strongly dislike the idea of open-shoving turn though, that just gets villain to call with all their sets and fold their flush draws.

The more I think about it, the less I like this spot. Do we think villain can flat QQ-AA preflop here? What’s their frequency of flatting 88/55? 55 would probably be a not-great flat here.

They have very few bluff combos in their range, but very few value combos too. If we had AhJh and the ability to turn a flush draw, I think calling becomes better, but the more I think about it, the less I like the spot. If they can have QQ-AA some % then all of a sudden value hands are starting to overtake bluffs in their range pretty significantly – it’s still tough to put more than about 3-4 combos of spades in their range, and most of those have extra equity on top of the naked flush draw.

We don’t have to worry too much about being exploitable here since we have plenty of non-folding hands versus this raise (spades+overcards, sets, overpairs), but I’m starting to think AdJd is a hand that might actually end up being best used as the top of our bet-folding range on this flop. The more villain starts to flat QQ-AA, the more I think checking the flop is an option, too.