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combo draw , facing donk bet otf?
folding_aces_pre_yo
High Stakes Mario Kart Propping
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February 10, 2015 - 8:23 pm
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…..B8786027C2

Hey

No reads.

I decided to just call flop as i do have a very good hand for it and my plan was to bet almost any turn if v checks. When v leads out there range seemed strong maybe top pair hands like A8/K8 betting for value/protection maybe 55/88. The turn 7 was not a great card for me if v had a strong hand on the flop there range on the turn is likely going to have me crushed. I don’t think they have to much draws in there range since we block a few combo’s of that., they could have a hand like T9 which we are ahead of though.

I’m just wondering if anyone prefers semi bluffing flop? i’d consider the flop a number 1 or a number 2 spot , i must say their sizing otf seems pretty strong if we raise and v jams we’re likely going to have good odds to call as we have decent equity.

thoughts?

TheClubber
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February 11, 2015 - 12:08 pm
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This flop is an excellent candidate for a semi-bluff. You could not get a more perfect flop for your hand without hitting and you have great equity against even the top of his range should villain shove over your raise. Against top set you are 40%, against top two pair it's 50 / 50. Even against a flopped nut straight you have 48.5% with 12 outs to win and 3 to chop. If villain only has one pair right now, you have potentially 21 outs. On top of that, Jack high isn't beating much in his range, except potentially T9, so getting a fold would be a good outcome. 

While the turn card is one of the worst, I still think you have the odds to call getting over 3:1 in direct odds so you need just a little over 20% equity. It's true you could be drawing dead against a boat, but he doesn't need a boat to continue here. 

Jimmy2tymz
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February 11, 2015 - 12:19 pm
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What he said. 🙂

folding_aces_pre_yo
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February 11, 2015 - 12:26 pm
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Thanks clubber and nice post.

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