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columbo's One Minute Mystery
ltcolumbo
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May 31, 2015 - 1:46 pm
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I am doing pretty well in the $6k guaranteed and its the 400/800/80 level.  I am in the top 25 in chips, 156 remaining…

I have 30k in chips I am dealt QdQs UTG+3.  I make it 1634 and the Dealer with just 5400 flats.  Ok so far.

Suddenly the BB with $42k in chips, makes a strange raise to $10358.

Back to Hero with their QQ.  Call, Raise, or Fold?  (I tank, so take the full 60 seconds to decide)

TheClubber
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May 31, 2015 - 3:44 pm
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It takes a lot for me to fold QQ pre flop. Without a compelling reason I just jam and hope.

emb
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June 1, 2015 - 4:05 pm
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I'd say this is AK or JJ far more often than it is AA or KK so I'd just get it in.  Of course, depending on the villain, that may be just what he wants you to think 🙂  No other reads based on prior hands?

 

emb

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Killingbird
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June 1, 2015 - 4:36 pm
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I assume we made it 1634 pre?  Gross spot.  Any reads or HUD stats on the villain?  In a vacuum i probably get it in, but frankly im not very exicted about it to be honest.  That sizing is super nutty.

Fire
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June 1, 2015 - 6:57 pm
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I agree. That raise represents a range that youre probably only slightly ahead of, so if villain has been tight you might consider folding, but your hand hand is so strong that normally you just gotta stick it in.

ltcolumbo
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June 1, 2015 - 7:53 pm
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No Hud stats as it was Bovada.  Right after a table break also.  So not much of a contextual read…

I literally tanked my entire time bank.  In the end I had his range as AA, KK, AKs/o, JJ.  Not even AQs. 

Based on that range, I figure this is about 41% Villain, 39% Hero, 10% Button/misc. 

Which I think puts it at right on the borderline? 

 

In the end, I folded to see TT and AKs.  QQ would have held. 

I did end up finishing 27th, so I played well…  I want to be sure not to be results oriented, so I dont want to beat myself up.  I think I snap call with KK and I rest easier laying down JJ, so I really struggle with what would be the best thing to do in this situation in the future. 

That sizing was so sick though, seriously!

theginger45

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June 1, 2015 - 8:51 pm
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Disagree with those saying the raise looks nutted. Think it looks anything but. It looks like a raise designed to cover the short-stack who flatted the initial raise, but also prevent too much future action or difficult decisions from you.

I think villain is going to have 99-JJ or AQ/AK here way, way more often than AA or KK. You're less than 40bb deep, so you'd need an extremely reliable read to fold QQ here.

When it comes to considering how much equity you need to get it in, it's about a lot more than just “do I have more equity than villain”. Leaving aside the fact that 41% + 39% + 10% only equals 90%, having 39% equity in a pot where there's more than 15k already in the pot is really not that bad at all, and QQ actually has around 47% equity versus a range of JJ+/AK. 

I think this is an unnecessarily tight fold if I'm honest. You need more evidence than just a big 3-bet sizing to justify folding in this spot. If villain were a super-nit I might be more reluctant to get it in, but versus an anonymous villain I'm never even thinking about folding here.

ltcolumbo
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June 2, 2015 - 4:24 pm
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that is what I was looking for ginger

michaeldi11on
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June 2, 2015 - 5:51 pm
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theginger45 absolutely nailed it. I think 99, TT, AQo, AJs would be interesting spots but I'm never folding QQ here and probably not JJ either. If you fold here, you're essentially waiting around for KK, AK+ and that's not coming very often

Fire
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June 2, 2015 - 8:18 pm
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I tend more towards Killingbird here, you run into AA/KK/AK here more often than you would think. Its something that you really learn the hard way.

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