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Cold 4bet AKo or flat?
DaKid
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September 12, 2014 - 4:48 am
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Poker Stars $50+$5 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t800/t1600 Blinds + t150 – 9 players – View hand 2576842
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

BTN: BB = 7.6, t12113
SB: BB = 13.5, t21609
BB: BB = 8.2, t13054
UTG: BB = 8.9, t14210
UTG+1: BB = 25.1, t40239
UTG+2: BB = 24.0, t38455
MP1: BB = 19.5, t31128
Hero (MP2): BB = 40.4, t64670
CO: BB = 39.1, t62616

Pre Flop: (t3750) Hero is MP2 with K of clubs A of spades
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to t3520, MP1 raises to t8375, Hero raises to t64520 all in, 5 folds, MP1 calls t22603 all in

Flop: (t69226) 3 of clubs 6 of diamonds 4 of spades (2 players – 2 are all in)

Turn: (t69226) 5 of spades (2 players – 2 are all in)

River: (t69226) J of hearts (2 players – 2 are all in)

 

There is about 40 left in the 'Nightly $25k', villian has just being moved to the table so no stats on him at that point. The oringinal raiser was playing about 20/19, hadn't done too much out of the ordinary playing a decent solid game.

I feel the 3bettor has a pretty strong range 3betting an early position opener AQ+, TT-AA. AKo is about 50/50 with this range. The original raiser could also have a strong hand.

So should I just flat call here instead of shoving? I have a 40bb stack, with the average being about 20bb. There is marginal gain from winning a 60bb stack but a huge loss going back to a 20bb stack. So should I just take a flop and fold if no Ace or King comes on it?

 

Another question, before a few players got moved on to the table I was in a situation where I have 54bbs and everyone else at the table had 10bbs or less, What is my strategy in this case?

OneTime1Time
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September 12, 2014 - 8:16 am
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Nothing wrong with a 4 bet shove here, also nothing really wrong with taking a flop and playing post. The deciding factors for which route to take are going to depend on villain image and how comfortable you are playing post. 

Judging by your comment about folding if no A or K shows up, I'm guessing you are not super comfortable playing this hand post, so I'd elect to shove. This is not a bad flop at all for AK. It's a great spot to float and see what the villain does on turn. If he double barrels we have to decide if we think he's doing that with hands other than pairs, as he isn't likely 3b pre with that stack with anything that contains a 3/4/6. 

 

The 2nd question requires a lot more info and table dynamics, but a general guideline would be to put pressure on everyone. Study Push/Fold ranges and get some info on the kinds of hands you need to call off for 10BB when you raise pre. You would be suprised at just how much you can profitably open up your range. The one dynamic that is playing a factor here is that your opponents have 10BB, which means they seem to be nitting it up quite a bit. You should be able to open up and steal enough to cover the times you open and get shoved on.

Foucault

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September 12, 2014 - 11:31 am
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If you really think the 3bet is that strong, I'd fold. Otherwise I'd shove. I can't see calling ever being correct here.

IDontLookLikeTO
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September 12, 2014 - 1:30 pm
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Foucault said:

If you really think the 3bet is that strong, I'd fold. Otherwise I'd shove. I can't see calling ever being correct here.

Yea flatting seems leaky to me particularly if you plan on just folding if you dont hit an A or K. However, I do think that a flat can be profitable if you're confident in your post flop ability as Onetime said. Given the fact that we have no read, so-so confidence in our ability to win the pot if we don't hit and the high risk of ruin as you described, a fold is not a horrible play. 

theginger45

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September 13, 2014 - 5:58 am
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I don't think cold-flatting a 3bet is really ever an option when you're 24bb deep like this, unless the villains were both huge fish and you had AA. I think shoving is the play, and I think flatting would be pretty awful.

As regards your second question, if everyone else has 10bb, it doesn't really matter if you have 15bb or 54bb. You're playing 10bb poker.

OneTime1Time
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September 14, 2014 - 12:53 am
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Can you please explain how it doesn't matter if we have 15bb or 54bb when everyone else has 10bb? I think I'm missing something valuable. I'm assuming you will also say if we had 100bb it wouldn't matter then either?

I come from an approach where we can call off a lot lighter with 54bb than we can with 15bb purely because our stack can take the hit. Essentially, our Risk of Ruin chances are a lot lower, allowing us to gamble a lot more. It comes from the same perspective that allows us to raise with a larger range when we have 50bb than we do when we have 20bb. If this is wrong, could you please explain to me why, and what it is that is correct?

I do understand from a basic mathmaticaly standpoint that we are effectively only able to win 12bb/lose 10 bb in any given 1v1 hand. I'm more concerened from a meta game/game theory approach than the straight mathmatical approach.

theginger45

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September 14, 2014 - 4:31 am
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Essentially what it boils down to is that a profitable decision is a profitable decision, no matter how many chips you have when you make it. The mathematical profitability of the play is unchanged because the chips left in your stack aren’t in play. ‘Calling off a lot lighter’ or ‘gambling a lot more’ when you have a bigger stack is just another way of saying you’re giving yourself permission to make unprofitable plays.

However, what you’re talking about with regard to risk of ruin is somewhat valid, because it changes our level of certainty about the profitability of the plays we make, and our stack changes our future edge in the tournament. It’s just not as pronounced a difference as you might think, and it applies in more specific situations. Here’s an article I wrote about it:

https://www.tournamentpokeredge.com/profitability-thresholds-why-icm-isnt-just-for-final-tables/

So basically, there are times when our stack size influences our decisions and changes the plays we want to make, but this isn’t because of changes in the profitability of the play. It’s because of small nuances in the level of profit we demand from a play in order to justify the variance it subjects us to. When only 10bb is at stake, that doesn’t often have a massive impact on our future edge no matter what our current stack, because it’s hard to create that much extra edge with only a 10bb change in your stack. If 50bb were at stake, it’d be a different matter.

OneTime1Time
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September 15, 2014 - 4:26 am
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Thanks for the reply. I was doing some number crunching today and I'm likely calling off slightly too light when I'm faced with situations like this. It's double bad by me calling too light with suited connectors, but not calling off light enough with pocket pairs. 

I'll have to make some changes to my calling ranges, and spend some more time running the math. While I don't fully base every choice I make on the math, I do take to heart when I'm making huge equity loss choices. Sometimes I just have to have a bit of gamble in my game. 

Douggyfr3sh
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September 15, 2014 - 11:58 am
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Haven't read any of the other replies but: 

 

-Do you think villain folds AQ to a cold 4bet?  Seems like most villains are probably never 3bet/folding here

-Are blinds the type of villains that will 4bet rip when you flat the 3b but will fold when you 4bet with some hands?

 

Both of these cases would be a reason to flat instead, but I think both are probably very uncommon.  The latter situation happens sometimes on Bovada but probably not as often on stars.  I think if we DO flat the 3bet our plan can't be to just give up when no A or K comes.  Without considering our blockers, given the range you put villain on, there are 32 combos of AQ,AK in their range and only 30 combos of TT+.  Removing our AK V has 12 combos of AQ, 9 combos of AK (21 total combos AQ+) and 18 TT-QQ and 6 combos of KK,AA for total of 24 combos of TT+.  If we flat the 3bet and everyone else folds (which should happen fairly often), here is what we have on the flop: 

 

POT: 23600

EFF STACK: 22500

 

Villain acts first, and if villain is shoving any flop (which is reasonable to assume) than on any flop with an A or K we are happily getting it in  If villain checks an A or K hi flop we can check back and get it in on later streets, or bet/call the flop.  When the flop is 9 hi, we have to call 22500 to win about 69k.  We need 22.5/69= 32.5%.  On a flop of like 447, 953, we have like 41-43% equity and can call a shove profitably (assuming villain is shoving his AQ,AK as well as all pairs on these flops).  On dry T and J hi flops we still have 42%+ equity and can profitably call a shove.  When the flop is TJx we have even more equity and can call a shove.  If we are facing  a shove on a Q hi board we have to fold, but of course on an K or A hi we love to call.  Basically, I think that calling the 3bet is the better option, and we can profitably call villain's flop shoves on MOST flops IF they are capable of shoving AQ,AK when they brick the flop.

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