July 5, 2012
In the A7 vs. Milf Island, do you ever consider making a pot size bet on the turn when checked to? making it 30k to go on the turn, puts him in a super sticky spot, as it represents 30% of his stack. Think he has to jam the tip top of his range, or fold so often, that it’s profitable. You also save chips, bc he’s never flatting. If you bet 1/2 pot on turn, and then 3 barrel the river for 1/2-3/4 pot, it will prob cost you 15k turn + 35-45k on the river. if he has super nutted hands, and jams turn, you save 25-30k by never having to make the river bluff. If you make a pot size bet on the turn, it only has to work 30% (as a pure bluff) of the time to be profitable. thoughts?
i just wanna know if that bet size is spewy? profitable? expoitable? or good, if used in moderation?
July 5, 2012
time stamp: 9:30 into the HH
ty for the response. looking forward to hearing more.
apparently MilfIsland is and was a good reg before black friday. that being said, I still think we can(and should) own him on the turn in this spot.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
Thanks, kingten. I think the conversation in the video is actually quite good, I don't have a lot to add to it. Florian is right that a pot-sized bet would need to work 50% of the time if you had no equity when called and didn't anticipate a profitable river barrel. I don't think you'd need to bet pot, though – your objective would be to get him to fold less than top pair and good draws, so I think you'd benefit by giving yourself a better price and also repping a less polarized range by betting maybe 2/3 pot or something instead of pot.
I also wouldn't be so sure that BB, if a good player, has as many weak combos as they assume in the video. Weaker draws and gutshots ought to raise the flop a lot, and if they don't they ought to sometimes raise rather than fold turn. Also with the number of draws on the board I wouldn't be at all shocked for Villan to hero with a pair less than a J.
This is a good spot to fire, but Hero's range for raising Button and betting flop is so wide that if you bluff all air you're going to have a super-bluff-heavy range and good players will adjust accordingly for that. There are so many better bluffing hands you could have here (ie any draw) that you might not want to include hands with this little equity in your bluffing range.
I do agree with Daryl that you don't have to bet the river if you bet turn. Unless you're specifically exploiting a tendency of Villain's to call turns and fold rivers, you ought to have both a triple barreling and a double barreling range for all river cards. Else why would Villain ever call turn and fold river?
July 5, 2012
florianm1 said:
If you make a pot size bet on the turn, it only has to work 30% (as a pure bluff) of the time to be profitable. thoughts?
i just wanna know if that bet size is spewy? profitable? expoitable? or good, if used in moderation?
if i am not wrong the bluff has to work 50% of the time to be BE
my mistake on that. you are def correct florian.
Thanks for the response andrew. I am always looking for different lines, esp if I know that 2 small shells aren't going to work against a “sticky” reg as chris puts it. I agree, that if he calls turn, he is prob calling river. Just thought a larger bet gets him to fold the weaker part of his range, and smaller bets don't.
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