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This is slightly tough decision at the FT since I have such a good chip stack and could likely find really good spots and get top 2. It is a shove fest at this point for most of the stacks. Villian is 15/15 over 20 hands. I was figuring his range to be 55+ or AJ+. I feel like I am doing good vs his range but it is likely a flip with AQ or AK. Think I am always calling here. Does anyone else find a fold?
Merge No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t4000.00/t8000.00 Blinds – 6 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
mrclean1945 (SB): t64608.00 8.08 BBs
JhonnyQ (BB): t82147.00 10.27 BBs
777deuced (UTG): t7985.00 1.00 BBs
RANDYB21 (MP): t81130.00 10.14 BBs
Hero (CO): t237960.00 29.75 BBs
lSuzzyl (BTN): t156545.00 19.57 BBs
Pre Flop: (t12000) Hero is CO with J
J
2 folds, Hero raises to t16000, lSuzzyl raises to t155745
July 3, 2010
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Yeah, I don't think it's a snap since this player is 2nd in chips at a super shallow FT and can also easily get top 3.
If and only if you've been able to open a lot of pots and get folds from the shorties do I think we can fold and abuse the shit out of the table. If it's been an open shove fest and you've had to fold a ton (sounds like it) I probably get it in. 77-TT are most definitely in this shoving range. Unsure about smaller pairs – it's the FT and villain doesn't need to make a big shove.
CO to Button makes it a call, I think.
yeah i think that given he is 2nd in chips and as you rightly pointed out can fold a lot higher up the ladder, his range doesnt include smaller pairs.
I'd give him something like 77+,AJ maybe KQs, we're not smashing this range but given that it looks like he has FE, we are in the c/o and there are micro's around, he could easily be leveraging his stack against us
We are still alive with 10bb's should we lose so i'd make this call and win the flip
btw winning this hand pretty much guarantees us 1st place which makes it an easier call as opposed to folding and having this annoying stack behind us from now on!
June 22, 2010
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Just curious what his stats are and his play style. Has he been agressive on the button? I noticed the CO has become like the new button and that the player in the BTN will get frustrated with the CO and start shoving over them if they have not fought back for awhile. Not saying this is the case in your situation but, I like to play passive button nowadays to trap CO when I have a hand, they nearly always call thinking I am just frustrated and I easily double-up or knock em out. However, you could use the reciprocal of that logic and trap the BTN.
"Your either in Sheen's Korner or your with the trolls."
It is not black and white without more info. Where is he from?
What is his roi? Poker tracker stats? Etc.
What hands has he shown down? Has he 3 bet shoved on you before?
I think this is a call in a vacuum without tons of info.
I am playing to win and winning this pot pretty much locks
Up a win for you. He is shipping worse hands
Alot of the time.
With only a 20 hand sample size…def a call imo
We're not really sure about his tendencies since we only have the 20 hands on him, but I think it's a fair assumption to make that u can eliminate AA, and KK to a lesser degree, out of his range. Most decent players will make a 2x-3x raise here with those hands.
If he does this with 88+, AK we will be a big 3-1 favorite in the hand. Even if we add KK to his range, we're still 63% – 37%.
If we had AK here instead of JJ, I think most winning mtt'ers will insta call with the AK, but these are the type of situations w AK that I've been thinking about where u can possibly find a fold because of ICM reasons. There's a big difference being a 55-45 fave with a made hand than being a 45-55 dog with a drawing hand.
But I'm talking about possibly folding the AK to a 3bet shove only when we have a very gd stack in relation to the others at the final table. Is this train of thought being too riskaverse?
with only 20 hands on him and no specific read that he is a nit, i call his range (i would also say 55+, aj+ is common) here any time with JJ. i wouldnt hesitate much cause if we lose we are still 2nd in chips, and if we win we have a big advantage to take it down. i think its worth it.
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