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Check raising/check shoving OESD on flop
BadAstronaut
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September 16, 2015 - 8:09 am
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Hey guys,

So here’s a thing that has happened to me three times in the last three live tournaments I have played (in three consecutive days). Three different villains check raise my flop c-bet either all in or a pretty considerable size. I have a good holding and call the shove and he flips the naked open ender. I’m guessing with 31% equity and potential fold equity this move can have its place.

Here are the three scenarios:

1. $80 buy in, early stages. Button is unknown but seems competent. BB is in a few pots but has not shown to get out of line. It’s less than 2 hours into the tournament so no real reads. I limp 22 after being folded to in CO. Button makes 3x, SB folds, BB calls, I flat. 
Flop is 24Kr. BB checks, I check, button bets 50% pot, BB calls, I make a raise (which is to almost 50% of the my and BB’s almost identical stack sizes), button folds, BB ships, I call. 
BB was never getting a fold here, so is he making a mathematically correct shove with his 35 against whatever hands I am check raising here on a 3-handed flop?

 

2. $40 buy in, early stages. SB is new to the table and short-stacked. Has flatted AJ for 1/4 of his stack from BB in previous hand, so I’m not thinking he’s too good. I am on button, raise with AQ, SB calls, all others fold. Q46r flop, SB checks, my c-bet is for 2/3 his stack, he c/r me all in and I call. He’s never getting a fold here, so is this mathematically correct/justifiable with 57?

 

3. $40 buy in, mid to late stages. Just moved to new table and against all unknowns. Third hand I am button with QJ, raise. UTG was the only limper and the only one to call after my raise. QT3 flop, I c bet, he check raises me big. He is deep, as am I, so I flat. 5 turn, he bets again, I call. River brings the 8, he bets very small in relation to pot size and I think if he had two pair or a little set I can rep the straight by making a big raise that actually puts him all in. Of course, you can’t bluff against the nuts here and I lose a huge pot.

 

So is there something about the flop c/r with the open ender I don’t understand where competent players are ‘adding’ fold equity to their actual hand equity on rainbow boards (none of the above had backdoor flush draws so we can’t count that). Other than hand 3 which I think I played terribly, what are your thoughts not so much on my play but on the various villains’ check-raise OESD play in general?

 

Thanks

Foucault

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September 16, 2015 - 3:15 pm
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“31% equity and potential fold equity ” That sums it up nicely. Why do you think this is a bad play?

BadAstronaut
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September 17, 2015 - 5:42 am
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I don’t think this is bad play – I am trying to understand it 🙂

 

So that’s basically what it comes down to – thinking “I could get the guy to fold, but if not I will still win 1/3 of the time”? 

folding_aces_pre_yo
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September 17, 2015 - 10:31 am
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hand 3 , I’d just call river , i don’tthink bluffing river is a good idea as i doubt worse is folding also it’s rather unlikely you’ve called a flop raise with J9s and then called turn with it , so it’s quite difficult to represent the straight OTR. You do have STD so i’d just call , v could be betting  with their missed draw perhaps like KJ/K9/89 and stuff like that.

 

as for my thoughts on v raising open ended straight draws on dry flops i think that’s a decent play in certain spots depending on how wide your bluffing range should be. Your bluffing range should be wider against looser opponents i.e. if you know your opponent c-bets a ton and has a wide flop betting range , you’ll get them to fold more often then not.

BadAstronaut
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September 17, 2015 - 10:46 am
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Thanks – what is STD?

folding_aces_pre_yo
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September 17, 2015 - 1:01 pm
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STD – showdown value

 

your welcome:)

jacobsharktank
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September 17, 2015 - 3:17 pm
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the additional equity that this concept has (not that I think either of the first two hands show it well) is that players don’t just bet the flop with top pair+ with no intention of folding to further aggression. if youre cbetting a high frequency (which you should since you yourself will have a profitable bet here a lot of the time, ie betting 1/3 pot with no chance of winning at showdown needs to get folds 25% of the time to break even, if they fold when they whiff its around 60%, netting like 40% of the flop’s pot size in profit), youll have a lot of air, some pieces that hit the board, and some that hit really well. competent villains should know this, or at least have a rough idea of this. if your flop bet includes say half hands that can withstand a raise and half that immediately fold, it is very easy to adjust and counter this with a ck/shove or ck/raise.

however, in the first two hands you posted, yes villains should not expect to have fold equity at all and are likely making a mathematically unsound play. it’s not possible to know without stacks (like i can see the total pot and the villain with 53’s contribution being ~25-35% of the pot, so idk for sure, but yah).

if you’re not opposed to math, i’d read the first few chapters of mathematics of poker.

flop is P. you bet (1/3)P and villain continues only 40% of the time. so (4/3)P * .6 = .8P, you bet .333P, so profit is .8-.333 =~ .47p

 

and i had no idea std meant showdown value. i thought it was a poor abbreviation of standard lol.

GunnJD
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September 18, 2015 - 8:40 am
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STD=Standard 

SDV=Showdown Value

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