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Check call the river with AA?
iball83
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May 14, 2013 - 6:00 am
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Poker Stars $24.55+$2.45 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t700/t1400 Blinds + t175 – 9 players – View hand 2207471
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

ArtemovAl (MP1): BB = 90.2, t126296
Hero (MP2): BB = 34.6, t48427
Creg_Allenki (CO): BB = 30.4, t42594
gork111 (BTN): BB = 16.0, t22339
bgorilla007 (SB): BB = 25.2, t35322
vernicci (BB): BB = 58.5, t81969
dozerTM (UTG): BB = 17.2, t24087
VILAVICENCIO (UTG+1): BB = 21.1, t29492
hobbemian (UTG+2): BB = 3.4, t4706

Pre Flop: (t3675) Hero is MP2 with A of clubs A of diamonds
4 folds, Hero raises to t2800, Creg_Allenki calls t2800, 3 folds

Flop: (t9275) 9 of spades Q of diamonds 6 of spades (2 players)
Hero bets t5600, Creg_Allenki calls t5600

Turn: (t20475) 6 of diamonds (2 players)
Hero bets t8400, Creg_Allenki calls t8400

River: (t37275) J of hearts (2 players)
Hero checks,

 

I've been pretty active in the last few hands doubling up twice in the last orbit showing down QJ after a shove and then KK after a 3bet shove. The villain seems to be competent and is running 16/15 over the last hour or so at the table, I haven’t seen him showdown many hands.

No spade on the river and the J only makes a fairly unlikely straight. So my plan is to check call to give him a chance to bluff off chips if he missed his draw and maybe even look for value from his paired Q hands. Is this a reasonable plan? What do we put him on? Do you call a shove on the river? Any other thoughts on the hand?

Sen
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May 14, 2013 - 9:06 am
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Quite interesting spot. For me your line looks very good. I guess a value bet of 1/4 – 1/3 pot on the river with fold to reraise might be plausible, too. But honestly I don't see me folding, there are a too many pairs and draws we beat. QJ and KT straight and very unlikely A6 are just too rare.

I'm interested in what the pros think!

danrose29
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May 14, 2013 - 9:11 am
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id prob fire for value river and just hope he doesnt shove, if he has queen he may check behind on river and so u may lose value checking river if hes called turn i guess decent chance he has queen rather than j10 so betting river may get called.

danrose29
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May 14, 2013 - 9:12 am
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did he check behind what did he have?

redvulture61
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May 15, 2013 - 3:26 am
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I would just bet fold the river. I don't expect the average  player in the big $27 to be turning made hands into bluffs or bluff raising the river in genral if you do it will come from a expectionally good player. If you get shoved on the river i would get really upset about this hand and probaly fold. As a genral rule if you get raised on the river overpairs are a easy fold against most players without reads.

iball83
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May 15, 2013 - 7:48 am
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He did seem like a decent player and i thought he would be capable of shoving with a missed draw. I don't think I can bet fold even if I make it small say 10K which is just bigger than my turn bet then if he shoves the pot will be 72K and the call would only be another 15K. Even if I check and he shoves there is 62K in the pot and it's 25K to call. Another hand I think he might jam is QJ which has just made two pair and now beats hands like AQ and KQ which he has to think are a big part of my range. With the paired board we can beat that. Of course there are full houses in his range but would he flat with QQ preflop and would he call the flop and turn bets with JJ? Maybe but not that likely which only leaves 99 as a likely holding (66 for quads seems a long shot).

 

As it happened I did check and he shoved.

kingten102
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May 15, 2013 - 11:49 am
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Maybe Try Diff Bet Sizing.

Flop:1/3 Pot
Turn: 1/2-60% Pot
With Intention Of The River Shove.

iball83
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May 15, 2013 - 4:19 pm
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That's a good point. I did wonder about my bet size on the turn. I guess that makes it easier to get it in on the river and that's a better way to get vaule from hands with a Q.

Juxie
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May 16, 2013 - 9:23 am
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I don't think we should ever be bet-folding here. The pot is 37275 and villain has 25794 chips left. You can't really bet like 12K and then fold to a shove. I'm shoving for value a fair bit here and hope to be called by a Q. If he has us beat then nh. Check-folding is also pretty weak and if we check he might check behind hands that we could get value from by shoving.

mategott
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May 16, 2013 - 2:14 pm
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shove river. He will call you with KQ, AQ, QJ. 

And he will also herocall sometimes. AJs J10s and some more. 

 

A shove CAN also be you shoving AK to make him fold. And if he had K10 or a 6. GG, on the the next one.

 

I think he will call you down more often then he will make a big bet with air. Your line doesnt really look like you are folding to a bet. Looks more like = oh, the draw didnt get there. Lets see if he wants to bluff me. 

And if he is calling you down with something like Qx and the draw didnt get there, then there are more hands in your range that is Air = shoving can get called lighter.

And if you been active, i even like shoving more! Then he will for sure call you down with any Q.

mategott
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May 16, 2013 - 2:17 pm
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kingten102 said:

Maybe Try Diff Bet Sizing.

Flop:1/3 Pot
Turn: 1/2-60% Pot
With Intention Of The River Shove.

Good point! And to bring on this post into your game: “Think about the stack – to – pot – ratio”

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