Mnpuck…..

1010 would never be in ur flatting range, 4 ball all day. What range should villain have? Aa, kk, or he is bad. With no read should we assume he has the nuts fckcoolers? If he is a fish he is def gonna bet checked to twice with air and maybe bets on flop checked too.
To answer Andrew I am betting to win the pot.
I’m looking for more input on this hand as I’ve lost hrs of sleep about this exact spot with exAct stacks.
Am I crazy?

florianm1 said:

this is a really interesting spot which can lead to a lots of discussions about general strategy and the hand itself

 

first some general thoughts:

 

1.) importance of a good HUD

this and many other hands are a prime example why a HUD at all and a good HUD can prevent you from putting money in bad.

what i mean with this is the following:

if we have VPIP/PFR we have a first classifier for villain. even if its over a small sample size we can use bayesian inference to perform the right actions. additionally to VPIP/PFR we should also have stats that look at steal % or as i have it in my HUD the pop up grouped based on position. this allows as to draw a very clear picture from which seats a villian is stealing or raising light. I have seen nits who are running 13/10 but raising 18-20% UTG and stuff like this. Furthermore, we need to have villains fold to 3bet stat and best also with different position combinations in the pop up. If villain has a high fold to 3bet(ft3b short) stat combined with high PFR we can basically make our 3bets small and profit everytime we do so. Additionally, we can 3bet him very wide and only 5bet(or in this hand 3bet/call) with a very narrow strong range. If ft3b is low we have to adapt in two ways. first, we have to tighten up our 3betting range and second we have to make our 3bets bigger. the reason for the second is to get as much money into the pot when we are ahead. This especially OOP allows us to lower the SPR and therefore reduce the positional disadvantage.

for postflop play our HUD should also be very well prepared to get most of it. It should at least contain fold to Cbet %. Again best with pop up that shows the stat for different scenarios such as fold to Cbet in 3bet pot. On my HUD i also have the stat included in the pop up which gives me the information how often villain bets vs missed Cbet. To further get a clearer picture we should have the fold to Cbet split into flop and turn. Same for villains Cbet stat in general. This allows us to plan ahead on the flop. We can basically already on the flop make the decision if we call one or two barrel. 

for example: MP raise, we have 99 OTB and flat, flop comes Q4T. Villain Cbets 1/2PSB. What to do? Well, without HUD we are basically flying blind and do not know how often he Cbets. So we make a call without knowing how often we are good. Now lets put the Cbet% on to the HUD. We have that stat and it says Cbet 100%. Now, we clearly have to call to make villain indiferent of Cbetting any2 on that flop. You see the logics? same for turn. we need to have turn cbetting FQ for much the same reason. 

in the example if villain has fCbet 100% and tCbet 20% (stats you see very often) then we can safely fold 99 if he bets again. 

 

to summarize my very long first point: In poker a game of incomplete information we need to take every advantage we have to get as much information as possible. Clearly, not using a HUD is prevents us from getting the most information and is therefore loosing money.

 

2.) know your opponents.

this goes a bit in a similar direction as the point 1. Whenever we sit down at a table we should try to get as much information as possible. there is plenty out ther (ofpr, p5s,…) to see if a villain is a reg or not. I basically use the color code on the sides to color regs(winning/loosing), fishes, 1time luckboxes with huge winnings (1SM ship). I also try to do this everytime i sit down at a table. This really helps me to adjust my style to the table as quick as possible. Like one day i sat down at the Big55 table when i was multitabling. The first hand i get dealt and i have to focus on the table i see 5 red circles to my left. GG me all good regs. i better tighten up my game on this table vs them OOP. Without my color code i would prolly miss that and play my normal LAG style.

 

3.) putting it all together off the table

most people in here really like the game of poker and are here because they want to get better and seek advice how to play a hand. what lots of them do not understand that actually by combining nr1 and nr2 together with all the tools available they can get a much clearer answer. But, the main problem that most people have is that they do play to much because they like to play and do not study the game enough. I know studying and sitting infront of a computer to run calculations is boring. But, i helps you to get better faster then just learning by trial and error. You can run so many situations with different variables in a very short time period and gain knowledge you can then apply.

Therefore to all serious grinder i would advise a very balanced palying to study ratio. For me at the moment it is 70:30.

If i am studying it try to use as many tools as possible. propokertools, flopzilla,cardrunners ev, pokerstove, ICM trainer and so on. All these tools are of tremendous help and every serious grinder should get them

 

now lets face the actual hand:

as others said i like the 3bet sizing smaller here. If i have no information i would generally make it 2.8-3.2x the open raise OOP and 2.2-2.5IP depending on deepness.

In this hand we also have no information about villain. The only thing we know is that we are playing a 10$ tournament on stars with shallow stacks. CO min raises post ante. Combining this information it is likely that villain knows a bit about poker and raise size. So i would prob classify him as an above average 10$ player.

hero 3bets rather big with the expectation to not get flatted i guess. Heros perceived 3betting range might be something like TT+,ATs+,AJo and some random bluff combos. I would prob discount AA,KK because with that hero would make the 3bet slightly smaller to induce or keep worse hands in.

surprisingly, villain flats our big 3bet. so this either means he is good and has the nuts here or he is just bad. i tend to assign people being bad unless they prooved me wrong. Therefore, vs a general 10$ player i dont really give a f… because they do it with all kind of hands.

 

the flop comes AK8r

this flop smashes our perceived 3betting range. Without any ready i would almost always bet about 1/3 here and give up if we are called without information.

 

but again actions might completley change if we have other and more information available

 

hope you didnt get to borred about the longest post i have ever written 

 

cheers

you should write some articles for TPE, I appreciate posts like this as I feel I just got better at mtts after this read.

so tytyty

AZN