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January 15, 2014
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Hey guys
Just a theory question based on a few hands I have played lately. I have found myself in good positions in the mid to late stages of a tourney, let’s say with about 45bb’s. An early position player shoves for say 18bbs and I have called every time and lost to a mid pocket pair. My theory has been that I know they most likely have a made hand and that I am flipping, but if I win the flip I am in a great position to win. If I lose I am still ok to carry on.
However now I am just tossing up whether there is any logic to avoiding certain flips and trying to find better spots given I am reasonably deep. But folding AK just seems incorrect.
Any thoughts?
August 4, 2014
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Hey I was just gonna post something like that. happened to me multiple times recently where I was able to detect I was not dominated by AA or KK. So I took it knowing that its a coinflip and lost.
Things to note: I am never eager to get it in in mid stages. LEts say I raise from early position, a couple of flats from loose guys and a squeeze all in from a shorter stack. Then knowing what he is doing, I called and lost.
And my thought process was just like yours. However, I would never push all in myself with AK without seeing the flop in early-mid stages.
So yeah Im also looking forward to hearing others on this.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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I wouldn’t generally be looking to get it in if I knew for sure my opponent had 55, unless I were in the BB at which point I’m getting quite a good price and don’t have to worry about someone behind me waking up with KK+. However, against a range consisting of pairs and also AQ, you are a solid favorite with AK, and then it’s a mistake to fold. I don’t know how you’d ever rule out someone playing AQ or even AJ this way, which is why you wouldn’t generally fold AK.
August 4, 2014
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Thanks for the response Andrew. I guess that makes it more clear now. No folding heads up and when we are getting a discount to call. But never risking our own stack either. Doing it only when forced to.
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December 6, 2012
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NeverAA said:
But never risking our own stack either. Doing it only when forced to.
That's definitely not what I said. Against a range of {AJ+,22+}, folding is a mistake barring some sort of really signficant ICM spot. It becomes a disaster if you take KK+ out of Villain's range. This is true whether or not it means risking the last of your chips. My point is that if you actually knew you were against 55 (against which you have 45% equity), it would be a fold, but that you can't usually be sure your opponent has 55 and not AQ, and that's why it's almost always a mistake to fold.
January 15, 2014
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Hey guys, thanks for the comments. Andrew I play on 888 for buy ins ranging from $7 to $15. The players in this game rarely consider themselves in push fold mode until about 12BB’s. So I have noticed that is when you are likely to see AQ and AJ and maybe ATs. When players in these games shove 15+BBs they almost always have 77-JJ. So based on that logic, if I am say 90% sure they have a made hand it wouldn’t be the worst play in the world to fold AK pre if I think I can wait for a better spot to get my chips in. Not sure if that last sentence is a statement or a question. Let’s go with question…
August 4, 2014
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Hey Andrew,
Thanks for the clarification. What I was saying was, Lets say you make a raise, and the guy pushes you all in. And lets say the money you already raised is significant to your stack. And you know the guy pushed you with 55. So what I was trying to say was that, I understood you as this is a call. But when the action starts from the villain and we have a good read he has 55, then it is a fold as we didnt invest any money yet and we know we are behind.
Could you please clarify if this is the correct attitude? Because this happens a loooot like manxmann mentioned. And it happens a lot on 888.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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AKo has 45% equity against 55, so if the shove is large relative to the pot then you would fold IF YOU KNEW HE HAD 55. The most important point I am trying to make is that you can’t generally know he has 55, and once you start putting hands like AQo into his range then your equity goes way up and folding becomes a mistake. So the point about folding to 55 is largely a theoretical one. In practice, most ranges are too wide to make it correct to fold AK to a shove, even though it can feel yucky to take what turns out to be a big flip.
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