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Can I get away from a set here with my bluff blocker?

Carlos

Atlanta, Ga

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September 17, 2014 - 10:38 am

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I started the hand with about 55bbs at 150/300. Raised a bunch of limpers to 1500 and they all called. Flop SPR under 2. I bet small to induce because I’m never folding here. Also, it sets up a slight turn overbet that may get hero called.

My question is if I should reconsider my never folding stance given that I have a blocker to many of the bluffs in player 3’s range? On the flip side, he doesn’t have QQ or 99 in there often so maybe that would be putting him on exactly the 3 combos of 33 and all the broadway combo draws that dont contain the Ac.

1. Even still, I think I am getting a good price against that range. I think I absolutely have to go broke here, but I thought I’d ask anyway.

2. Also, is his preflop call bad given his position and the chance that I could be stealing and may not go broke with a ton of the hands in my range? I’m not sure he has the right implied odds given that I would make this raise with a lot of suited Ax and not go broke with one pair in position. I think he has to win like another 7K postflop on average which wont often come from me, but with so many fish, maybe he will stack one of them often? I dont know. Maybe he can reliably get that, but I am raising or folding 33 in his spot intead of limp calling.

MrPunty

Grinding Micros

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September 18, 2014 - 4:44 pm

I think that if you are going to reconsider your never folding stance, you should also reconsider your betting small stance. In a 5 way pot when it checks around to you on the BTN and you c-bet just over 25% pot, then your range doesn't look that strong and it will become quite tempting for someone with a wide variety of hands, some of which are crushing you and many of which are behind, to ship it – especially after one of the other limpers calls. So because your little inducing bet was successful in inducing, reconsidering would be a mistake. If you're going to reconsider, the starting point should be the beginning of that street, not the middle.

A larger c-bet will narrow the villain's x/shove range, and also give you a better price to call. I reckon there is an equilibrium bet size here where you would be indifferent to calling & folding, though I don't have enough fingers, toes or genitalia to count it up on the fly. Any math nerds / polydactyls / people with multiple sets of genitalia want to chime in?

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