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(3 votes) 
Hey guys, I´m really thinking that the villain has the nuts on this hand.
Is my read ok? Can a call be justified?
NeiteNe (UTG+1): t2305 23.05 BBs
Hero (UTG+2): t8670 86.70 BBs
kennymen2013 (MP1): t5580 55.80 BBs
Pasha713 (MP2): t1205 12.05 BBs
Glock2012 (CO): t1204 12.04 BBs
mantzou5555 (BTN): t2545 25.45 BBs
Zheksan (SB): t970 9.70 BBs
Xep901 (BB): t4356 43.56 BBs
ebbi111 (UTG): t456 4.56 BBs
Pre Flop: (t150) Hero is UTG+2 with A
A
2 folds, Hero raises to t250, 3 folds, mantzou5555 calls t250, 1 fold, Xep901 calls t150
Flop: (t800) K
K J (3 players)
Xep901 bets t200, Hero calls t200, mantzou5555 calls t200
Turn: (t1400) 9
(3 players)
Xep901 bets t500, Hero calls t500, mantzou5555 calls t500
River: (t2900) K (3 players)
Xep901 bets t3406 all in, Hero folds, mantzou5555 folds
Final Pot: t2900
Xep901 wins t2900
Thanks a lot
May 20, 2013
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50/100 so early and deep, right? starting stacks $3k? Level 2 or 3?
Really looks like a Jack to me… But this early, I might not even call the turn bet? 1350 ish in the pot when he best 500. When 3 call, its 2850 and a shove of 3400 is possibly a value river shove. If you call this turn bet, you had better be calling the river. The final K is a blank as far and changing anything (expect for a QT).
August 23, 2012
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Never folding flop or turn with that sizing. Flop is a close raise because he bet so small. Turn is a clear call with one draw getting there and a player behind us. Never folding river because this is a jack so often. You will run into a K now and again, but that doesn't mean you should ever fold here. Don't be results oriented if you ran into Kx here.
June 1, 2012
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Your opponent is only repping Kx and as sad as it is i could see myself folding. You only invested 1000 in the pot and will have 76bbs remaining which you can use to wait for better spots. He 3.6x overbets the pot so in order to call here you need to be right over 60% of the time and think you are good here like 20%. Given the fact that MTT players are ubalnced in their overbetting ranges grosely towards the nuts, it is early, pot odds are bad, and he has done this into 3 people i coulden't see myself calling. I think a Jx 9x or Qx would go for a more standard sizing. Heads up i would hardly ever be folding for 45bbs.
February 18, 2013
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Played as is I’m calling here, if he has a K would he donk bet the flop when he could check raise? The fact he is in the BB and was priced in to call with a wide range I think you’ll be good here enough of the time to warrant a call – unless any of his stats suggest he only bets with the nuts.
August 23, 2012
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redvulture61 said:
Your opponent is only repping Kx and as sad as it is i could see myself folding. You only invested 1000 in the pot and will have 76bbs remaining which you can use to wait for better spots. He 3.6x overbets the pot so in order to call here you need to be right over 60% of the time and think you are good here like 20%. Given the fact that MTT players are ubalnced in their overbetting ranges grosely towards the nuts, it is early, pot odds are bad, and he has done this into 3 people i coulden't see myself calling. I think a Jx 9x or Qx would go for a more standard sizing. Heads up i would hardly ever be folding for 45bbs.
3406 into 2900 is a 1.175x pot sized bet.
November 14, 2012
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This screams Jx or QT to me. If he had JJ, I imagine he would have been raising pre, if he had Kx and actually knew something he would have bet more on the flop because its hard to give anyone credit for trips on a paired flop, and also to ensure AQ and QT didn’t come along with their open enders.
Call and shrug it off if he has it I say. You’d still be well placed to do well.
I think that with Jack he could check/call or make a value bet instead of shoving since he has so much showdown value.
When he overbets the river it just looks really strong to me, since he was not affraid of the K in any of hte strets.
But I can definitely see that some % of the time he could have a J in this spot but since I was so deep and didn´t have the odds to call I chose fold.
August 23, 2012
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I wouldn't give villain too much credit for being a thinking player after he min-bets the flop. I think a lot of amateur players will over-value Jx and shove it for value. Only one card in the deck beats you so call.
TPE Pro
June 14, 2012
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redvulture61 said:
Given the fact that MTT players are ubalnced in their overbetting ranges grosely towards the nuts
Totally agree with this, but don't think I can find a fold here.
June 1, 2012
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rivermen123 said:
redvulture61 said:
Given the fact that MTT players are ubalnced in their overbetting ranges grosely towards the nuts
Totally agree with this, but don't think I can find a fold here.
And that is never a mistake from GTO standpoin.
May 1, 2013
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if i call turn im calling river u have essentially second nuts only one card beats u, i maybe worried on turn but if i get to river im calling all day if he has aquads gl
February 3, 2013
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River is a blank card imo. With AA i would have loved this river and def. calling. 95% of all time he had the J, def a call for me
January 27, 2013
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would it be bad to raise the flop since he bet so small?
May 30, 2012
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redvulture61 said:
rivermen123 said:
redvulture61 said:
Given the fact that MTT players are ubalnced in their overbetting ranges grosely towards the nuts
Totally agree with this, but don't think I can find a fold here.
And that is never a mistake from GTO standpoin.
+1 to all of this and i dont think i can fold
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