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Calling shove with JJ with 23BB on final table bubble in a $4.50/180 mans
AsoylaErruy
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October 12, 2015 - 7:17 am
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Hello to all,

 

I am playing 180 man with 12 player left. I have an average stack, in last few orbits I have open and folded from from late position to 3bet shove 3 times, once to the villain in the question. The villain is LAG-ish: 28/22 over 60 hands, his 3Bet is 50 (but only 1/2, so I guess not reliable). All in all he has done nothing too much out of the order.

I open with JJ from UTG, action is folded to the villian in BB, who 3B shoves with same stack as me (~23BB).

Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter
No Limit Holdem Tournament PokerStars
6 Players
$4.10+$0.40

Blinds 400/800 6
UTG Hero 18,669
UTG+1 cataloniya 4,992
CO majastv 45,861
D kyo416 8,011
SB 12urb07 18,273
BB G4MB1T77 18,449

Preflop
6 1,650 Hero is UTG J J
Hero raises to 1,696, 4 folds, G4MB1T77 goes all-in 18,374
Final Pot 20,920

 

I think he is not doing this with AA or KK, but even with his full range according to Holdem Resources call is 9BB+ EV positive.

However, I was wondering if I could find a fold here this being on the FT bubble and I think I have an edge over the field?

Foucault

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October 12, 2015 - 11:46 am
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How big do you think your edge over the remaining field is, measured in BB/100?

BadAstronaut
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October 12, 2015 - 4:21 pm
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How does one go about measuring or estimating an edge in BB/100.

AsoylaErruy
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October 12, 2015 - 6:32 pm
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Honestly, I do not have a clue how to calculate that. But people do make weird plays at these stakes, i.e. calling off J7s for 2/3 of their stack or  showing with A2o from early position being middle stack with 3-4 really short stacks at the table. Usually if I make FT with app. 15BB, I am able to crawl up to 5-6th place or even better if I get a bit lucky in the process. However, if I am right and make a call (and hold) I get a very good stack giving myself a fair chance to win the tourney. I presume that in this case I should stick to try-to-win mentality, make a high EV+ play and stop second guessing it?

However I could also be wrong in my assumptions about V range. Since I am opening from UTG, he might correctly assume I have a pretty good hand and he would get paid even if he/she shoves over my raise with premiums? At the end I did make the call, and I would typically do it with 99+.

joelshitshow
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October 12, 2015 - 10:46 pm
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You’re on the right track. I think this is an easy call. Someone who is 28/22 over 60 hands is unlikely to play tightly enough to your EP raise.

Foucault

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October 12, 2015 - 10:50 pm
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AsoylaErruy
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October 13, 2015 - 5:16 am
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Thanks Foucault, this article really makes it clear for me. Even more if I take into the account that my edge over field should be much smaller than theginger45’s. 

jjpregler
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October 13, 2015 - 7:59 am
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When you pass up edges it actually makes it harder to use any skill advantage that one may have.  First it is a skill to know when and where your edges are and second good players don’t pass up edges.  They embrace them.  

Sure if your cEV in a tournament situation is something like 0.03 BBs, then this is one of those close situations that one can pass up.  But in general, if a play is over 1 BBs profit in early stages and over 0.3 BBs in later stages, you are supposed to take those edges.  

Also as shown in Matthew Hunt’s article that Andrew posted above, that as stacks shrink so does your edge.  In general this is because most of the bad players make their biggest mistakes when they have the most chips.  If a bad player has 200 BBs, his capability of error is as much as his stack.  Additionally, each error is not 100% of the chips he puts in.  Imagine if a bad player invests 100 BBs on a bet when he only has 85 BBs equity, his error is 15 BBs in that spot.  

When the stacks shrink to 20 BBs and a bad player invests his 20 BBs in a spot where he has 15 BBs equity, his error is only 5 BBs.  That partly explains why it is harder to “create” an edge in later spots.  The error margins are smaller as stack shrink.  

Your edges do not come from your superior play, but in capitalizing on your opponents errors.  Poker is a zero sum game, therefore, you cannot create profit.  If two perfect players play each other, theoretically with enough hands, they should each break even.  Your profit is not created by you, it is the result of your opponents making errors and you being able to capitalize on the error.  

SSSMforlife

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October 13, 2015 - 2:57 pm
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I don’t think this spot is very close at all and would be a big mistake to pass this up. 

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