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Calling All-in With KK on Flop in 5$ Tourney

mike666

Lighting Money On Fire

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May 7, 2014 - 8:22 pm

Hi, guys! Wondering to know your thoughts on the actual hand. It is 5$ MTT.

MP2 is pretty loose player VPIP/PFR 32/5 and 0% 3bet (after 19 hands)

BB is actually kinda nitty VPIP/PFR 10/0 and 0% 3bet (after 9 hands)

t300/t600 Blinds ante t70

SB: t6780
BB: t14317
UTG: t15230
UTG+1: t15058
Hero (UTG+2): t15127
MP1: t18857
MP2: t79713
CO: t26270
BTN: t10310

Pre Flop: (t1530) Hero is UTG+2 with K heart K spade

2 folds, Hero raises to t1200, 1 fold, MP2 calls t1200, 3 folds, BB calls t600

Flop: (t4530) J diamond 2 heart 3 diamond (3 players)

BB checks, Hero bets t1600, MP2 raises to t3200, BB raises to t13047 all in, Hero?

Would you call or fold? And why?

peppergrinder

Grinding Micros

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May 7, 2014 - 10:11 pm

Hardly an expert but I would jump in. Someone could have a set but more likely TPGK or a flush draw. At this stage with the stacks the way they are an overpair is very good. There is over 22000 in the pot and you have just over 12000 left. You got the action you wanted and there is no reason for them to know how strong your hand is so i would go with it. If you fold your KK now you're just going to be looking for a good shove spot and it might not come until you've blinded off too far

Poking_Fun

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May 8, 2014 - 7:55 am

I think it is difficult to take much from the statistics of the villains here as they have played very few hands although 32/5 even over 19 hands may suggest some loose tendencies for one of them.

In this spot, both villains can have wide ranges so could be calling pre-flop speculatively. This leads me to think that there are a lot of small-mid pairs (probably 22-TT), suited connectors and broadway cards in their ranges.

The flop does hit the small pairs, J high type hands and flush draw hands here as I expect villains to just call with hands that have some showdown value (e.g. 77-TT).

The MP2 guys raise does not concern me too much and a lot of the time I think he has a flush draw or weakish J here as weak players love to small raise such hands. The BB is shoving 22bbs here post-flop so does not need to be hugely strong either so I think we have too much equity in the hand to fold an overpair and have the potential to double-triple our stack.

OneTime1Time

Sunday Major

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May 8, 2014 - 1:24 pm

Firstly, you can take absolutley nothing from the stats on the guy with 9 hands. I've had streaks where I fold for literally 60+ hands, and if had just joined my table you would think I was a super nit. You can't really take much from the guy with 19 hands either, other that he is showing some fishy tendencies. That could really just be a function of the cards or the gear he's in. He might have been getting lots of weak suited aces, and be unable to fold suited cards.

I'm never folding KK here. Ever. This is exactly the action you want. Are you going to run into sets? Yes. Are you going to run into flush draws? Yes. Are you going to run into situations where one gets it in with TPTK and the other a FD? Yes, and you will be doing a happy dance when your KK holds up.

CCuster 911

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May 14, 2014 - 10:37 pm

Those are not very substaintial sample sizes at all, so I would only use them for a very cursory overview(and not really much on B). We can make a safe assumption that MP2 is pretty loose/bad though. So I would not be toow orried about him being ahead of us, as I think he may be doing this with any jack.

BB is our main concern, and all things considered, this flop is really safe for us. Effectively 0 two pair hands in his rnge, so its relaly only 22 and 33 we are worreid about, and there are just not that many combos. Especially when you factor in th enumber of Jx's he can have and the number of flush draws.

So with that analysis done, it becomes pretty appernt I would get it in here, and be pretty happy with it. This is one of the safer flush draw boards for an over pair possible(since 2's and 3's are not relaly parts of peoples PFRs)

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