I just watched this hand on a TPE training video and I wanted to get people’s opinions.

SB 120, BB 240, ante 25
UTG $5960
UTG+1 $3,288
UTG+2 $4,620
LJ (hero) $14,505 (2h, 2c)
HJ (villain) $3,987
CO $9,505
BTN $4,630
SB $7,050
BB $3,155

Hero says villain has been playing tight in the video.

3 folds, LJ (hero) bets $480, HJ all-in $3,987, 4 folds, LJ calls $3,507

I think hero called the 3bet shove too light. Yes, he can afford the chips, but he is calling off 25% of his stack with just 22. There is no hand he dominates (OK, 2-3, but villain is not going all-in with 2-3). Hero is flipping at best and dominated at worst. True, there are more hands he is flipping against than dominated against but it just doesn’t seem like a good spot.

If villain was first to act and shoved all-in his range with 16BBs is probably 33+, A9s+, AJo+, K9s+, KQo, Q10s+, JTs, T9s. Calling with 22 does not seem profitable, although it doesn’t seem horribly -EV, especially when you factor in the fact that besides villain’s stack you are also playing for the blinds and antes.

In reality, however, villain was not first to act. Hero opened with a min raise. Hero is the big stack at the table so let’s say he may be doing it with a wider range than others at the table would. So I plugged the hand into snapshove assigning hero a loose opening and calling range, and villain can profitably 3-bet shove with 77+, ATs+, AJo+, KQs. I get the same range if I give hero a normal opening and calling range. When I tried to tweak things a bit for villain, I gave hero a loose opening range and a normal calling range and the answer remained the same (77+, ATs+, AJo+, KQs). Based upon this I think hero calling the 3bet shove was a mistake. The fact that hero min raised seems to narrow the range for what villain should be reshoving with. Had hero opened with a 3.0x raise, then Snapshove says villain can profitably shove with 44+, A2s+, A9o+, K7s+, KTo+, Q9s+, QJo, J9s+, T9s. Against this range I think hero’s call of the 3bet shove is getting close, but I still don’t love it. It seems weird that Snapshove results change so dramatically when hero min raises 2.0x versus a 3.0x raise. Given that min raising first to open is so common, maybe this is a flaw in Snapshove’s reshove calculator.

Now I plugged in the most extreme case into Snapshove in which I gave hero a loose opening range (30%) and a tight calling range (7%), which gives villain the widest range possible to shove profitably. In this case villain can 3bet shove profitably with 22+, A2s+, A2o, K2s+, K4o+, Q2s+, Q8o+, J3s+, J8o+, T6s+, T8o+, 95s+, 98o+, 85s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s. In this case you can make a case for hero calling the 3bet shove, but I really doubt many villains are shoving with this wide a range. So this doesn’t change my opinion that hero’s call of the 3bet shove was a bit too ambitious. 

What does everyone else think?