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(2 votes) 
April 30, 2015
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Hi guys, this is a hand in a $200 re-entry daily live tournament in my casino. We start with 10k chips and blinds are 20 mins. We are in the middle of the tournament, not ITM yet. I have been moved to a new table and have played 3 hands in the table, so I have not so many reads. Here is the hand at 400-800 with 100 ante, 9 handed.
UTG folds
Hero with 33400 (UTG+1) A
Q
: raise to 1800
MP1, MP2 fold
CO: with 40000 Calls 1800
BB: with 37000 Calls 1000
Pot 6700 going to the flop
Flop is the best I could hope for – K Q 10
BB checks to me, I lead for 3000. CO goes all in over the top, and BB goes all in as well.
Here is my thinking –
I am putting either of them on a 2 pair or KJ with J here. What is the line I should take? I have 9 nut flush outs and 3 nut straight outs. Mathematically, I have 40%+ equity, but it is very likely I am behind here, and potentially calling a shove for a high variance for tournament life, with just 2nd pair and some good draws.
What should I be doing here? Call shove and hope to triple up?
May 20, 2013
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I cant see you winning this hand w/o making the flush. It's really nice for payoff in that there are two shoves, so let's guess at least 1 villain has the Jh. You have 8 outs (or 7 if the other guy has Th) twice. 32% getting about 3-1 which is about right. But if there is a set out there, you can still be outdrawn, so its slightly less I am guessing, closer to 30%. Did you run it through an equity calc to get 40%+. Seem like 40% is high? I dont think your against AK here. (I would put BB on SET of Jh, not 2 pair.)
But based on the ranges you assign the two players, the math should give you an answer.
May 12, 2015
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Let's say that one player has Kc and Jh (top pair and a straight flush draw) and the other player has Kd and 10d (2 pair). You are in fact ahead in this scenario with 42.3% equity or 1.38 to 1 to win. The pot is giving you over 3 to 1 which makes this an easy call. If one one the players has a set you are behind but at 2.09 to 1 to win and getting favorable pot odds, you should still call.
AGVocalist
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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This is really just a math problem. Don't think too much about your 'tournament life' – it's not an ICM spot, and unless you have a huge edge against the field, you're probably not in a position to be folding here if the math tells you you have enough equity versus the ranges of the players in question. You might want to leave a small margin for error, but if you have the equity, then calling it off makes sense.
April 30, 2015
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Thanks guys. I didn't put anyone on a set here since KK or QQ or 1010 is going to mostly 3-bet preflop. I ended up calling off my chips and was drawing against K
Q and J
9. Needless to say, I didn't catch my magic cards and I busted out. When I called my chips off, it felt like it was the right decision. Just wanted to know from the experts here that more often, the flop looks beautiful that you are most certain you gotta win the hand, do you just screw the math for a little bit and auto call?
August 25, 2014
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I'm check calling this flop. There aren't many bad turn cards and we keep dominated flush draws and pairs in. We're ahead of villains range on flop but once we bet and they both shove, we're not thrilled so I wouldn't make that situation happen mroe often by starting the betting.
You shouldnt ever bet or raise without having a plan for getting raised or called. Obv this situation is rare as both players are all in
November 24, 2013
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navinbits said:
Just wanted to know from the experts here that more often, the flop looks beautiful that you are most certain you gotta win the hand, do you just screw the math for a little bit and auto call?
Um, not sure whether I'm an expert, but the flop looks most beautiful to me, when it looks like I clearly have the best hand, not when I have royal draw or whatever. Its like the old AA on an AAx board. May look beautiful at first sight, but on second sight it's unlikely that others will put any money into this pot.
February 20, 2015
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michaeldi11on said:
I'm check calling this flop. There aren't many bad turn cards and we keep dominated flush draws and pairs in. We're ahead of villains range on flop but once we bet and they both shove, we're not thrilled so I wouldn't make that situation happen mroe often by starting the betting.
I agree with this. It's a good example of playing against your opponents instead of the hand you have. And to be honest, I would have bet out, too, but I think I'd have been wrong to do so.
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