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TPE Management
March 17, 2010
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The guy who bets on the river has super aggro stats, like 33/28 with a 5 post flop agg factor.
My thoughts on this line are to check the flop to try to get some showdown value. I call the CO bet because I think he bets there without a K and SB flatting adds value to the pot.
If the CO double barrels into 2 players i’m out of there but as thought he checks back.
Going to the river i’m ready to actually bet for value but the SB leads out with a large bet. Given that he flats the flop raise, I’m thinking he has a weak K but would he really lead out large like that with one? Or, given his stats is he more likely bluffing?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 11 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds (9 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP2 (t13460)
MP3 (t9090)
CO (t9600)
Button (t11890)
SB (t13230)
BB (t14420)
Hero (UTG) (t12705)
UTG+1 (t8225)
MP1 (t4695)
Hero’s M: 42.35
Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q
, Q
Hero bets t500, 4 folds, CO calls t500, 1 fold, SB calls t400, 1 fold
Flop: (t1700) 3
, K, 6 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO bets t600, SB calls t600, Hero calls t600
Turn: (t3500) 3 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks
River: (t3500) 2 (3 players)
SB bets t2000, Hero?
Total pot: t3500
Unless the SB is a complete spewtard I don’t think you can really call here profitably. We’ve got to call 2K to win 5.5K (have to be good 27%) with one player behind.
I don’t expect the CO to be very strong here often, unless he slow played 33, 66 or KK here which could be possible.
The SB however sees you overcalling the flop and if he is capable it puts your range pretty face up most % of the time like 88-QQ. Same goes for the SB he could easily have 33 or 66 here given the dry flop and not getting any value if he would check-raise. Once he donks into two players on the river after knowing (if he is capable) that we have SD value and the CO probably has air and stabbed or nuts. I think his range here is beating us more often then not.
I see him betting here with KTs+, KJo+, 45 and sets off course.
Also his bet sizing is closer to please call me/value with two players behind then.
The big question here would be how competent villain is and what his PF calling range would be.
Without reads I fold. if I’m a little suspicious because of some history or anything I might look him up here.
I also don’t like to get value here on the river. I’m a big fan of getting very slim value but unless villains are non believers I think checking it down is a great result here.
IMO I would raise more preflop due to the aggro SB that is calling us with a wide range, so I think that a full 3x its better to try to put more money in the pot while our hand is beating his range here, I think that those extra 100 chips will make a difference on the stack to pot ratio and planning the hand overall.
Also, on the flop CO here is just taking a stab here or betting a weak K due that he checks the turn, meaning that he has shut down or pot controlling with a weak K, on the SB point of view I think his hand is 45, 33 or 66 a huge % of the time, the call on the flop fits 45, and with 33 or 66 he is calling to try to keep you in the pot, he checks the turn cause he is on draw with 45 or because he just made a Full House or Quads and he thinks he can’t get value by betting, also the bet on the river fits perfectly with his range, he bets a little over half the pot to get value from a K or even 77-QQ.
On the river for me its a fold cause you are only beating here a complete bluff, cause I don’t think he is betting a weak K there.
Nevertheless, the CO bets the flop then shut downs the turn, so SB can assume he is weak and you have shown weakness through the entire hand making this river a good spot to bluff I guess. So that’s why I love poker!
Lol, but still I think its a fold.
TPE Management
March 17, 2010
Offline
I definintely agree that the SB’s range is polarized. I folded as well because i didn’t think he would call the CO bet on the flop OOP with me being PF aggressor with air. Just seems like such a great spot to bluff but I think in retrospect he had something.
It looks to me that he may have some sort of weak K. He wasnt sure where he was so he checked behind on turn but when you check to him on river he decideds he must value the K. I dont really see a drawing hand that he missed and is trying to now bluff the pot. I think this is a fold. Your only beating complete biscuits.
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