A A A

Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy Call this 12 BB shove

Topic Rating: 0 (0 votes)

Call this 12 BB shove

ltcolumbo

the D

High Stakes Shark

Members

Forum Posts: 161

Member Since:
May 20, 2013

Offline

March 10, 2015 - 1:22 pm

I am playing in a $20 buy-in, $10k with 18 places paid and 50 runners left. The level is 250/500 with antes.

I have a stack of $15,500 after some c-bets got check raised in the last level but healthy with 31 BB.

I open UTG+2 with QdJd (ok so far?)

UTG+3 had a hair under $6k so lets just call it $6k. He shoves.

Folds back around to me, I have to call 10BB here.

Is this a call or fold?

BionicApe

Grinding Micros

Members

Forum Posts: 63

Member Since:
January 16, 2015

Offline

March 10, 2015 - 5:38 pm

Seems like the villain should be pretty strong here most of the time. By my estimation you're getting close to 2-1 on your money so it's unlikely that the villain is shoving with any expectation of fold equity. Against a top 6.5% type of hand you have like 34.5% equity so calling is probably going to be marginally profitable; the wider the villain's shoving range the more profitable calling will be. If you have reason to believe that the villain actually expects to have some fold equity then it's an easier call.

I'd think calling is almost always going to be better here than folding, but it's not difficult to make an argument for folding. These sorts of decisions inevitably break down to a judgment call based on personal risk aversion. Give up two big blinds outright or risk ten more bbs for a marginally profitable call?

I think the deciding factor for myself would be the size of my chip stack. The difference in the playability of a 20bb stack as opposed to a 30bb stack isn't as big as the difference between a 30bb stack and a 40bb stack. I'm really no worse off at 20bbs than I am at 30bbs, but at 40bbs a lot more options become available.

I really don't like putting myself in such spots and wouldn't have gone into this hand without a plan based on the size of the chip stacks behind me. I'm actually probably going to fold QJs preflop in EP most of the time when the stacks are this size because I'm just not super-stoked to call 10bb shoves with QJs.

folding_aces_pre_yo

High Stakes Mario Kart Propping

Members

Forum Posts: 1133

Member Since:
September 14, 2014

Offline

March 10, 2015 - 7:13 pm

Pretty much what BionicApe said above apart from folding this pre , seems a bit to strong to fold imo.

theginger45

TPE Pro

Members

Forum Posts: 924

Member Since:
August 25, 2012

Offline

March 11, 2015 - 9:24 am

Opening preflop seems fine. As far as the call goes, it's just a math problem – assuming you minraised and the antes are 100 at a 9-handed table, there's 4400 in the pot before he shoves and 10400 after. You have to call 5000, so you're getting slightly better than 2 to 1. Even if his range is 99+ AQ+, you have 33% equity, so it doesn't look like you can fold.

If it were a really thin spot in a tournament where you had a huge edge, perhaps you could pass it up. But generally a 10bb call doesn't represent a huge change in your edge, so it's not going to be a great idea to pass up edges with only 10bb at risk. I think it's a call, especially since his range could be wider.

Probably the biggest learning point here is that in order for you/us to establish whether this is a call or not, we need the exact info on your raise size, pot size, his stack size, etc. Tough to do a math problem without the right numbers.

Forum Timezone: America/New_York

Most Users Ever Online: 2780

Currently Online:
69 Guest(s)

Currently Browsing this Page:
1 Guest(s)