This is $215 $8,000 Gtd nighlty high roller on Lock (Merge). Won a sat to this mtt. This is the final table, starting to pay at 5th place – there were only around 40 players.
I wasn't that concerned with the bb having a monster or anything. He has shown a tendency to flat from the blinds with a wrong stack size just becuase he was getting good odds.
If he has a set or two pairs, he most certainly would ch/shove I would think. Just have to worry about Axs. MP1 was failrly tight.
Merge No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t500.00/t1000.00 Blinds – 10 players – View hand 1306364
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
BTN: t38710.00 38.71 BBs
SB: t30131.00 30.13 BBs
BB: t15728.00 15.73 BBs
UTG: t22883.00 22.88 BBs
UTG+1: t49636.00 49.64 BBs
Hero (UTG+2): t48220.00 48.22 BBs
MP1: t33760.00 33.76 BBs
MP2: t20088.00 20.09 BBs
MP3: t20744.00 20.74 BBs
CO: t35100.00 35.10 BBs
Pre Flop: (t1500) Hero is UTG+2 with K J
2 folds, Hero raises to t2200, MP1 calls t2200, 5 folds, BB calls t1200
Flop: (t7100) 8 5 2 (3 players)
BB raises to t13428, Hero calls t13428, MP1 raises to t31460, Hero…
I think that with the odds you are getting after the jam it is a call. If I am doing the math right you are getting over 3.5-1 on a call (correct me if I am wrong). You have the 2nd nut flush draw and 2 overs. I think you will be drawing and the jammer has 10-QQ or a set. The donk jam can be really anything….I think when you decide to call the donk jam you need to be ready for the player to act and have a plan for it. In saying that I think it is a crying call with the price you are getting. You hit your draw, or over you are in great shape…what happened?
Folding pre is certainly fine, but opening KJs fr ep with 50bbs is ok too I think.
The first thing I thought of after the donk bet is wether I should iso or not. I thought calling was just as strong as raising, but as an afterthought, I guess if I was ready to call a shove by MP, then I was prob better off shoving myself.
But I think its pretty rare that my flatting and not iso'ing is going to influence a desicion by the player after me, with his stack being about 30bbs . Either he's going with it or not.
I called the shove and I was pretty surprised to see MP1 holding KK, no clubs, and I wasnt surprised to see the bb holding a silly 57 of hearts. Idk how the hell MP1 doesn't 3 bet with KK from that position. I can see him just flatting from the blinds. That would be a nice spot to disguise the strength of his hand by flatting while not having to worry about weak or semi-weak Ace coming in after him, but doing that from MP1 at a full table is pretty risky imo.
I wasn't lucky enough to catch a club and MP1 won a monster pot. In retrospect, I think folding to the donk bet on the flop cant be a big mistake because we lost the ability to be the aggressor and also lost our leverage – no fe to go with our good draw.
I agree with all the math as stated,as played though, MP1 never shows up with less than he did here so you are basically drawing to the flush which if you put the range of the MP1 on Axcc 88+ and maybe some 85s weird play puts you around a 60-40 Dog best case.
So again after you called the donk shove you do have the odds but there is something to be said for folding since you are in the final table of a larger buyin and fold your 30bbs which still allows me to play for 1st but put your money in when at least you arent sure you are a dog and going against 2 players. Yes I know this might be -EV but hell if that was all that mattered skalnsky would be winning a lot more tourneys 🙂
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