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call or fold river?
folding_aces_pre_yo
High Stakes Mario Kart Propping
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September 3, 2019 - 2:53 pm
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#Game No : 967368073
***** 888poker Hand History for Game 967368073 *****
125/250 Blinds No Limit Holdem – ***
Tournament #143126976 $30 + $3 – Table #10 9 Max (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 1: Bosyak1981 ( 47,930 )
Seat 2: london_ace ( 49,715 )
Seat 3: Mikael591a ( 52,377 )
Seat 6: PAULEDJN ( 51,140 )
Seat 7: SloanWall ( 49,910 )
Seat 9: usainzeus25 ( 49,880 )
Seat 10: ludofart ( 49,880 )
usainzeus25 posts ante [30]
ludofart posts ante [30]
Bosyak1981 posts ante [30]
london_ace posts ante [30]
Mikael591a posts ante [30]
PAULEDJN posts ante [30]
SloanWall posts ante [30]
PAULEDJN posts small blind [125]
SloanWall posts big blind [250]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to london_ace [ 7s, 9s ]
usainzeus25 folds
ludofart folds
Bosyak1981 folds
london_ace raises [500]
Mikael591a folds
PAULEDJN folds
SloanWall calls [250]
** Dealing flop ** [ Ks, 5d, Kd ]
SloanWall checks
london_ace bets [667]
SloanWall calls [667]
** Dealing turn ** [ 6s ]
SloanWall checks
london_ace checks
** Dealing river ** [ 7h ]
SloanWall bets [1,500]
london_ace calls [1,500]

 

hey all

 

I found this hand rather interesting , like when V leads river I was thinking does he ever do that with KX , I decided to look him up because he could have some draws which he is betting that he missed.

also do we double barrel turn here? I guess I was worried v may c/r , I took the free card option 🙂

 

thoughts ?

Foucault

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September 3, 2019 - 3:35 pm
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This is just about the nut turn card for you and you should definitely bet. Yes, the risk of getting raised is a downside to betting, but that doesn’t make the decision for you. What about the risks of checking (that would be letting your opponent get to showdown with hands that would have folded to a turn bet)? Think of it this way: you are going to have plenty of Kx and other strong hands in your value range that you’d like to bet again. That means you want to do some bluffing as well. And what could be a better bluffing candidate than this? Against trips, you aren’t losing that much by getting raised, and it’s hard for your opponent to raise without trips, because how does he know that you don’t have trips?

folding_aces_pre_yo
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September 3, 2019 - 6:46 pm
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that’s a very good point Andrew, I think I am more concerned that he has trips! can u discount trips from in range in this hand by the way he has played?

Foucault

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September 4, 2019 - 8:33 am
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No, it’s entirely possible he has trips, it’s just that he has many other hands as well. Betting is the best play against most of his range, and it isn’t *that* bad against trips.

It seems like a lot of your thinking is centered around picking one thing that you want or dont’ want to happen (Villain might be bluffing so I call, Villain might have trips so I check). I’d suggest watching or re-watching my Getting Off on the Right Foot series, which makes the case for thinking in terms of options, all of which have advantages and disadvantages, and comparing them to each other to find the best one.

DuckinDaDeck
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September 4, 2019 - 9:45 am
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Foucault said
It seems like a lot of your thinking is centered around picking one thing that you want or dont’ want to happen (Villain might be bluffing so I call, Villain might have trips so I check). I’d suggest watching or re-watching my Getting Off on the Right Foot series, which makes the case for thinking in terms of options, all of which have advantages and disadvantages, and comparing them to each other to find the best one.  

This is great advice and a reminder that I needed atm. While reviewing sessions, I’ve noticed myself missing some turn bets, especially bluffs when I’m holding 8+ outs. Not that I’m making none, but my turn bet frequency has dropped over my last ~30k hands. I’m conscious of in-game thoughts like “I don’t want to get check-raised and forced to fold my equity.”

Not that it’s dominating my thought process (and I’m mostly only thinking that way when the SPR is much lower) but I’m definitely thinking too much about what could go wrong after betting, and undervaluing what can go right.

Layers upon layers upon layers, am I right?

 

OP: As played, the river is close but probably a fold. In addition to Kings, the villain can value bet any of the QQ-88 that didn’t 3bet preflop (likely only has TT-88, but still). Not to mention stronger 7x, which isn’t even that thin after we check the turn. What draws do you expect villain to call on the flop? I don’t think missed diamonds are enough.

Villain can have some other flop floats, but likely less OOP than they would IP. Do we expect ace-highs to start bluffing? What other hands? Does villain ever value bet a 6?

folding_aces_pre_yo
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September 5, 2019 - 12:30 pm
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@ Andrew , is it free to watch the series? I don’t think I have watched it…

 

@deck, perhaps he has hands which has two spades (BDFD) that he floated OTF.His range must be pretty wide for calling from the BB right? I’m not sure if v should be betting ace high as a bluff otr…

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