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January 10, 2017
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So having a debate with a couple friends about this hand. Playing a live $200 tournament. 176 players and we are down to 100 with blinds at 500/1000. Starting stack is 30k. UTG has just lost a big pot and is down to 10.4k. He goes all in. HJ has about 65k and calls as does the button with about 60k. I look down at AKoff and retailers all in for 31k. HJ tanks for about a minute and calls of with AQoff. Flop is Q107ddd but brick the turn and river. My friend felt that this was an ok call if villain assumes I am a competent player capable of a squeeze play in that spot but I disagree. I think considering utg has jammed and two callers my range is capped to basically JJ, QQ, AK, AA, and KK. I think jamming anything outside of that range would be somewhat suicical. Curious to know what others think.
July 24, 2018
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Hero should be shipping wider than the range you suggest. I would certainly jam 99+ and AQ+. This is a great spot for a squeeze. If you can get it heads up with UTG, you are only risking 9.4 (I assume you are BB) to win a 42K pot. Looking at those numbers, even my initial range is too tight, maybe 66+, AJ.
With all of the dead money in the pot, AQo is a good call.
July 24, 2018
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Against your suggested range, AQ has about 28%, so, using round numbers, he gets about 11.5 of his 20.6 from the side pot. This would mean he would need about 9.1K back in equity from the main pot, which has about 43K in it, or about 21.1%. That probably makes it fairly close, but a fold.
Against 99+, AQ+, AQ has 35.1%, so Villain gets 14.4 back, and only needs 14.4% from the main pot.
Against 66+, AJ+, AQ is up to 42.7%, so Villain gets back 17.6, and only needs 7% from the main pot.
If you are ever getting fancy with some AWs, SCs or whatever, then AQ has a trivial call.
February 5, 2015
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Have to agree with Danny re: squeeze range being wider than you suggest. It’s an ok spot to squeeze, but it would be better if you were deeper.
January 10, 2017
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Yeah, my stack size was part of the reason I thought my range was so capped. For both of them to commit 10k already, I doubted that another 20k was going to get folds from both of them and that was why in my mind I needed to have such a strong range. Probably a bit too narrow though and if that is the case the numbers clearly say he should call with AQ.
July 24, 2018
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I think you are using capped differently than the rest of the poker world. Capped usually indicates a range that doesn’t have the strongest hands.
There is a logical fallacy in your thinking. If you don’t think you are getting many folds, why would AQ fold?
January 10, 2017
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Lol, typo and lack of sleep on the capped range comment. The very top end of my range is what I meant. Not sure where the fallacy is though. My point was that I don’t want to jam with any marginal hands there due to the lack of fold equity I think I have. With both of them committing 10k and fact that I can’t put them at risk for their tournament lives with a jam, they may look me up a bit light. Add in that this is live poker and many players simply don’t like to fold strongish hands (i.e. AQo). I personally would be reluctant to try a squeeze play with a weak/marginal hand there and was just thinking that maybe villain would see it the same way. It didn’t surprise me that he called with AQ I was just trying to figure out if his call was correct.
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