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Call off with gutshot?
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December 28, 2015 - 9:33 pm
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Hi there, 

I am very curious about this hand:

…..g/?6774241

Final Table, Big stack has been very active, 3 betting a lot with marginal hands. I have been playing with him a couple of hours and he’s shoved on me a few times and has been aggressive. 

I am wondering if his call is correct because I am put in situations like this a lot when I have a lot of chips and I flop a gut-shot and my opponent shoves, Depending on the stack sizes I sometimes fold for sake of chip preservation. He makes the call and I’m wondering if it’s a correct call? And why it is or is not correct? I would appreciate the input.

Thank you

joelshitshow
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December 28, 2015 - 10:06 pm
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In other hands did he shove on you post flop or pre?

In this hand he clicks it back from the small blind pre. Does he often minraise when he 3-bets or does he 3-bet for more?

This is an awkward situation because he donk-leads 22k into 38k and your stack is down to 22 bigs when you have to act here. I guess call and reevaluate on the turn. If he leads into you again with that ace, I guess you have to fold because you’re not beating anything but draws, and I wouldn’t expect a double barrel with a draw unless he’s exploiting your stack.

Foucault

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December 29, 2015 - 8:46 am
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I suspect that your real motive for posting here was that you were salty about getting drawn out on and want us to join you in berating your opponent’s play. If you really are interested in how to play the spot he’s in, put yourself on a shoving range. What hands could you have in this spot? Then look at how much equity AJ has against those hands and compare them to the pot odds Villain is getting. 

“Chip preservation” isn’t really a useful way of thinking. It’s always good to avoid losing chips. It’s always good to win chips. Equity and pot odds is a way of quantifying and comparing these two things to each other so that we can decide which play will give us the most chips, on average.

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December 29, 2015 - 11:20 am
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Thanks for the reply. Sorry if I made it seem like a bad beat story. I don’t want to berate the opponent. I did work out the equity and pot odds. My conclusion was no, I would not make this call, but I honestly don’t know if I should be. 

To give a little background, I am a tight player and I final table often, I am also a newer player. I feel like I am exploited a lot, I know I am. I’ve had regs float me with 82o for the opportunity to take advantage of my tight stats. So, this scenario happens a lot where I’m in the opponent’s shoes in my hand example.  It seems like one of those places where I don’t know what to do, so I end up folding, which is not going to work in the long run. Sometimes I think I should have made the call off even though I wasn’t getting the odds because of the dynamics. I believe that this barrier might get me from 4th place finishes to more first place finishes and will also make me less exploitable. 

I don’t think this is a case of math or ranges. I think I am getting outplayed. 

Foucault

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December 29, 2015 - 1:34 pm
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Everything is math and ranges. If you call with a hand that does not have enough equity to call, then you got outplayed. If you fold when you did have enough equity to call, then you got outplayed. In this case, you got your opponent to call your shove with a hand that was well behind yours. You outplayed him, and he got lucky.

If you’re worried about getting outplayed in a certain spot, ask yourself: “If my opponent knew that I were going to fold this hand, how could he exploit that information?” Generally the answer is that he could bet more often as a bluff, because he has more fold equity. So the question then becomes whether there are enough other hands you could have that would continue to a bet such that even if you are folding this one, bluffing still is not profitable for your opponent. 

I think it would be more helpful for you to post a hand where you folded and worried that it was a bad fold, rather than one where your opponent called but you don’t think you would have. Among other things, it’s possible that you wouldn’t end up in this spot in the first place because you wouldn’t (I hope) have made that tiny out of position 3bet.

In my experience, when people worry that their opponents are making hugely exploitive plays against them, it is mostly in their heads. Many of your opponents are just playing their own cards and not thinking much about you or how you play. Many do not use HUDs. Many wouldn’t know how to take advantage of that information even if they had it. Don’t worry so much about what your opponents are doing and whether or not is correct, and certainly don’t assume that just because they won the pot they must have played correctly. Most of them, even if they are slightly better than you are right now, are overall quite bad at poker and not people you should be trying to learn from.

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