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May 26, 2013
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All,
I played a hand recently and I would like some input on my bustout hand. Was it an awful play? Should it have been a shove or a call? Any input, thoughts and criticism is welcome. Here goes:
I’m at my local casino playing in a $100 deepstack turbo. Starting stacks are 25000 and the blinds levels are 15 minutes. I’m extremely short with about 5500 with blinds 300/600/75. We are nine handed and it folds to UTG+3 who raises to 1500. In my mind he’s a pretty basic player so a raise it probably somewhere around QJ+, KTs, A8o+ or a pair. He gets four callers before it gets to me in the big blind.
Now, I don’t think I have any fold equity here at all and I’m looking down at Ah3c. With so much in the pot (9*75+5*1500+300+600 = 9075) I decided to call the additional 900 with the intention to push if I got the smallest piece of the flop. The flow is 347 with two harts and I stick to my plan and go all-in.
Any thought on that play? Am I completely wrong or does the play have any merit?
Best regards
Daniel
February 5, 2015
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Hey Daniel…
I am no expert on equity but I have a couple of observations. Well actually, I was about to write the first, then realised this is a live tourney. Online at least, 15 min levels with 9bb is certainly not my definition of “extremely short”.
I just feel that with so many villains in the hand already, and with minimal FE, bottom pair TK with backdoor flush draw is just never in great shape. I see its a deepstack; I don’t know the average stack, but I would imagine with so many other players in the hand who presumably have on average a significantly deeper stack than yours…you’re going to get called here most of the time, and most of the time you will be behind.
Hopefully an equity wizard will come on and break it down, but for me, at least online? I’m looking for a better spot, and folding pre. I have never played live, except against my Grandma when I was about 8, so I don’t know how the level time/ stack size dynamic alters live vs online. I can’t imagine 15 min. levels with a 9 bb stack online or live could ever be considered desperately short, even if the average stack is way above yours.
I am currently playing War Thunder and am in my M46 Patton tank in Germany in WW2 right now…I think I have understood the dynamics in your hand, but forgive me if I have missed something. It is tough analysing a complicated poker hand whilst being dive bombed by a Stuka whilst trying to free occupied Europe.
What was the average stack?
May 26, 2013
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Sounds like you have your hands full, Riceman. 🙂
Average stack at this point is about 37K but only one or two of the players at my table come close to that. At the point where the hand takes place the level has about three minutes left and the next level will be 400/800/100.
My thought was that precisely because I did not have any fold equity the better play was to call the bet pre and more or less hope to hit a board that others did not hit.
May 22, 2016
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I agree that it sounds like a tough spot Samouflage – I struggle with multi-way flops pre when I’m short. However, due to the amount of players who called pre what kind of flop are you happy with?
If the flop comes A high then chances are someone will have a better A out of the other options, so the only time you feel great about the flop is when you get 2 pair, trips or to flop the wheel. Given this I might narrow it down to shoving pre, to guarantee your equity if you think you have any, or folding. It’s just very hard to call profitably with that little behind, and leaves you even shorter when you miss. In some siutations there is a small chance that you accidentally fold out a significant amount of equity, which given the size of your stack vs the size of the pot is pretty disasterous for you.
If you think you have absolutely 0 fold equity, you are maybe best to fold and wait for a better spot, where you can shove into an unopened pot.
Given this is my first strategy response I would very much like to hear other people’s points of view though!
June 2, 2013
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It is a hard spot to play, on one hand is hard to flop a good hand and play for stacks after the flop, and on the other hand you have such great odds to call. If this was a HU pot will be better, with smaller odds on the call, because multiway you will need to have stonger hands to win.
On that flop you can assume that you will have to improve to win, with almost no fold equity, you can count 6 outs to improve (3 aces, 2 3, and 1 for backdoor flush) for about 26% of the time.
With soo much money in the pot pre flop, I want to GII pre flop, online I actually raise ~5k, with 500 behind, and hope to someone to isolate and play heads up, but A3o will be behind. Live I think you can move all in, i dont play live yet.
Pot will be ~15k, so you need about ~30% equity, on that range you put V on, 22+, A8s+, KTs+, QJs, A8o+, KJo+, QJo, if they call with that you have 36.79%
Edit: From another post:
I get some percentages here, not sure how reliable they are.
To hit a pair 32.4%
Two pairs 2%
Flush OTF 0.842%
Flush draw OTF 10.9%
Straight 1.31%
Set 1.35%
Full house 0.10%
Four of a kind 0,24%
May 26, 2013
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Thank you all for your input.
One reason why i didn’t push pre was that I did not think that the initial raiser would isolate. He was not the type of player to think in those terms. Had I thought that he would isolate I would have moved in and would hopefully have had about 30% eq. But who know, perhaps moving in pre is still the better option even if all callers end up calling. The pot would be huge and A3 would still have some chance of winning. Like Jim Carrey put it “so you’re saying there’s a chance”. 🙂
Thanks again
Daniel
September 29, 2014
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My 2c, just off the top of my head, I don’t have much of a problem folding pre. odds are great but the odds of you flopping a winning hand are pretty low. I’d rather find a spot to GII first, you do have a bit of FE, you’ll be in the SB next and maybe you can nab that pot by shoving. I consider 9bb short stacked. As played, it’s an interesting spot. If you think you could get it checked around and hit an A on turn you are going to get paid big. But checkaround not likely so I guess ya gotta check the ranges for all 4 plyrs and see how many are flopping hands that will call your shove. I’d say you are getting called by almost any piece: pairs+, pkt pairs, draws, etc. But still its a low flop missing a lot of ranges so maybe a shove is ok- the pot is big too. Really curious as to the answer to this one, might be surprising..gonna check some numbers..
September 29, 2014
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Ok I messed around and got 11.43% for A3o on this flop against the four ranges I put in for the other guys. My ranges were pretty tight for the first guy but getting wider and more capped near the end, like: all pairs up to TT, suited 2 gappers up, etc. My flopzilla isn’t working rt now so can’t check there. You do have a bit of FE/ squeeze dynamics.. still curious..
December 30, 2015
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Radriguez said
Ok I messed around and got 11.43% for A3o on this flop against the four ranges I put in for the other guys. My ranges were pretty tight for the first guy but getting wider and more capped near the end, like: all pairs up to TT, suited 2 gappers up, etc. My flopzilla isn’t working rt now so can’t check there. You do have a bit of FE/ squeeze dynamics.. still curious..
Yeah I was going to say…4-way you have much less equity because it is shared.
I check the flop and probably give up unless it checks through and I improve on the turn. Anyone with 2 hearts and overs is ahead and should be calling.
February 20, 2015
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Great odds to call, but with a short stack doesn’t it mean your implied odds are capped? In other words are you playing this when deeper because of the implied odds or for some other reason?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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It’s like Radriguez said: calculate your pot odds and then see what your equity looks like against a variety of shoving ranges. You might find this helpful: …..os-part-1/.
Why on earth would you hate people putting money into the pot blind? If you don’t want your seat in that game, I’ll take it!
Edit: Wrong thread 🙁
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