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July 21, 2015
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Hi,
I’ve always used “Bubble Factor” (is this the correct term? In Spain we normally say “confrontation cost”) but more in a sense of “here there is a lot of bubble factor” more than in a more mathematically sense. I know people apply a % to the odds they would need to make a cEV call, to see if it would also be a $EV call (or push). I would like to know where this percentage exactly comes from (normally I’ve seen it as a “1.2” type number, but that’s just a 20% increase), after calculating the ICM distribution of stacks.
Thanks!
P.D: I know software already does this for us, I have and use ICMizer2 for this, but I think it’s always helpful to know exactly how it’s done, as I do for ICM distributions for example.
September 29, 2012
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Bubble factor is a term used in Kill Everyone. It is measured by using your ICM effects of playing against each opponent at the final table. For instance if your equity before the hand is $100. If you go all in against player A and your equity would be $130 if you double up, but you will be out of the MTT and cash for $50 if you lose the hand. So a loss costs you $50 in equity while winning will gain you $30 in equity. 50/30 = 1.66. Therefore your Bubble factor (ICM factor is a better term) against this player on this hand is 1.66:1.
July 21, 2015
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Hi jjpregler, thanks for the reply!
So it’s just the ratio of the value of your stack when you loose over the value of your stack when you win?
Pretty simple then 🙂
July 21, 2015
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Hi again,
There’s something I don’t get here. Imagine a guy pushes from the sb and you are on bb, and you need a 45% equity with your hand vs his range to make a correct cEV call. How would you apply this 1,66:1 to know how much equity your hand should have vs his range to make a correct $EV call?
It can’t be a direct 45*1,66 as it doesn’t make that much sense.
Thanks!
September 29, 2012
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If the SB pushes 7 BBs on the BB and the BB ICM factor against this player is 1.66:1.
The pot has about 9 BBs, The BB needs to call 6 BBs. The pot odds are 1.5:1. Direct pot odds indicate he needs 40% equity to call.
However, using ICM factor you rewrite the adjusted pot odds as 1.5:1.66. In this case the BB needs 47.4% equity to make the call.
July 21, 2015
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Thanks again 🙂
Just one last question, are you sure it’s 47,4% equity and not 53,54% (1.66/3.16)? 1.5:1.66 should be over 50% right?
And just to summarize, what I got from your first post with the example was this formula:
(Value of our stack when we win – Initial value) / (Value when we lose – Initial value)
This will give us the odds we need to substitute in our original pot odds to find the minimun equity our hands needs to be an $EV+ call.
Does all this seem correct?
September 29, 2012
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Yes, you are correct. I got dyslexic with the numbers. I did 1.5/3.16, when it should have been 1.66/3.16.
You formula seems dyslexic though. (Initial value – value lost)/(value won – initial value) = ICM factor. The value lost will be higher in ICM calculations.
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