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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy Calculating a good/bad Push/Fold

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Calculating a good/bad Push/Fold

ShootingGallery

Windsor, ON

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August 10, 2013 - 4:03 pm

Hi All,

First let me appologize if I'm spamming this forum. I just have a lot of basic questions and don't know where else to put them. It's very important to me to make sure I have all the fundimentals in place so that I can play to the best of potential.

I've decided that since I'm playing the MTTSNGs where Push/Fold is so important, that that is where I should focus my learning. One of the ways I've decided to do this is by review my own HHs. I've set up my PokerTracker to give me a report on hands where I've gone All In preflop with BBs between 5 and 20.

Ok, now I have about 600 hands to review from over the last couple of weeks. Great!

But now that I have those hands, how do I know if the push was good or not?

Here's an Example:

Poker Stars $0.45+$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t100/t200 Blinds + t25 – 7 players – View hand 2279670
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

MP: BB = 7.9, t1582
CO: BB = 15.7, t3145
BTN: BB = 15.3, t3061
SB: BB = 8.7, t1745
Hero (BB): BB = 13.5, t2705
UTG: BB = 6.5, t1310
UTG+1: BB = 14.8, t2955

Pre Flop: (t475) Hero is BB with K of hearts 8
4 folds, BTN raises to t400, 1 fold, Hero raises to t2680 all in,

Now, I have stats on Villan over 55 hands of: 15/17 (yea, I know, it's a weird annomily in PT4 that allows for the PFR to be higher than VPIP in certain instances.) but the only notes I have on him a regarding his 3Bet range.

Now, I'm not asking if this is a good Push/Fold. I'm asking how I would determine on my own if this is a good push/fold.

I've run the equity calculator and it tells me I'm a 58% favorite against and RANDOM hand. But is somethig like that even what I need to be looking at?

Thanks for your time and patience with me in advance.

"Remember, play tight. Nothing less than 83 suited."
Play Good, Run Good.

florianm1

Playing The Prelims

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August 11, 2013 - 6:15 pm

not a pro but its a simple calculation

you need to know several things:

1.) what % of hands is he opening

2.) what percentage is he calling your shove

3.) whats your equity when called

so lets say villain raises 20%(1) and calls 10%(2) of the hands. this means he folds 50% of the time when he raises

point 3 you can determine with stove or any other program like that

from there its just a simple calculation:

EV=p(villain folds)*pot size+p(villain calls)*(equity*amount you win if called

cheers

ShootingGallery

Windsor, ON

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August 11, 2013 - 6:52 pm

Ok, First, thank you for your response, I ask that you please bare with me a little, as, I'm kind of a math tard.

So, my first question is how we determine some of these numbers (maybe this is simplistic, but I want to make sure I have it right.)

1) I assume that his opening % is the same as his VPIP, so I use that for this number.

2) I assume there may be a stat for this somewhere in my PT4, but I also assume it's going to be an almost useless stat for any villians who I do not have more than say 1000 hands on. Since most of the villains I face at the mircos are one timers, what would be a good way to determine this amount (Remember also, that at these stakes you run into spots where you get 3bet, then you 4 bet your AA, and they SNAP call your 4 bet with J4o and hit two pair! <-new I could get a bad beat story in here somewhere! :P)

3) This one I got! 😀

Then for the calcuation you left, just to clarify, p=% right?

Thanks in advance for your patience.

"Remember, play tight. Nothing less than 83 suited."
Play Good, Run Good.

florianm1

Playing The Prelims

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August 11, 2013 - 7:04 pm