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On the true bubble of this $109, my stack is slightly below average.
OR is running 20/20 over 20 hands.
Cake Poker, $100 Buy-in (1,500/3,000 blinds, 300 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools by CardRunners – Hand Details
MP2: 99,630 (33.2 bb)
MP3: 28,870 (9.6 bb)
Hero (CO): 52,209 (17.4 bb)
BTN: 163,686 (54.6 bb)
SB: 114,891 (38.3 bb)
BB: 48,983 (16.3 bb)
UTG+1: 74,011 (24.7 bb)
UTG+2: 90,579 (30.2 bb)
MP1: 24,180 (8.1 bb)
Preflop: Hero is CO with Q
K
3 folds, MP2 raises to 6,099, MP3 folds,
Hero:????
I am good with jam or fold. No good answer since the stats mean nothing over 20 hands. On the money bubble so is truly up to you. To nit or not to nit, that is the question.
If he's opened that many pots that means he's probably trying to abuse the bubble…I think I fistpump get it in and feel pretty good about it.
To answer the question I think its an excellent resteal spot, unless he shows up with a QQ+, AK, AQ hand you are in good shape. And since he has opened 4 hands out of 20 (even though I agree with Hawkeye this is too small of a sample, it is what we have), he is unlikely to be nitting it up. the only problem is that it is kind of early position wise, as he is opening with 5 players to go, and you still have to go through a big stack and 2 other stacks.
Has the Opener folded to a 3bet yet? has he shown down any hands? has he been challenged by anyone yet? Have you been active since he has been at the table? has the big stack behind you been aggresive? I think based on all these I would be in better shape to make a decision.
I dont think going either way is a mistake though.
What is the BB's stats? It's only a small part of my decision, but I guess I'm curious wondering if OR is abusing bubble and picking on this particular player in the BB.
Personally I fold here based on the information you have given. But that might just be the nit in me. Wait for a bit more information, some bet sizing tells. I dunno I just have a bad feeling. I don’t really want to be flipping on the bubble if I can avoid it.
I wish we had more hands with him. But im not folding i think. If mincash is a big deal to you go ahead and fold if you need. I think we should go ahead and shove and feel good about it.
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