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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy Caesars 1k Bustout Hand. Money Bubb…

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Caesars 1k Bustout Hand. Money Bubble. Easy Fold Preflop or take the spot?

kingten102

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July 18, 2011 - 4:14 am

blinds 6000-12000-1000

Stacks in the Hand.

Cutoff: 410k
me on button: 180k (15BBs)
SB: 210k
BB: 450k

on the money bubble. 149 left. 143 pay

Table Dynamics:

Cutoff: is basebaldy. He has been opening 80% of the pots that have been folded to him
Button: Me. My image is solid/tight. I have been card dead and am glad they think I am tight
SB: super nitty since he has been at the table
BB: Has been opening a fair amount, but not getting too out of line.

My hand: Qc8c(though my hand shouldn't really matter in this spot)

folded to basebaldy who makes it 27,000. I tank for 70 seconds and Jam in my 15BBs.

SB snaps with AK. I lose the race.

My thought process on the hand was this:
1) I haven't been too out of line
2) Basebaldy is opening light here a lot of the time
3) I have all kinds of fold equity
4) It's the bubble. I know that he knows, no one wants to bubble. In his eyes, Myself or the SB have to wake up
with a monster to 3 bet jam him, and the BB is normally folding. So he can profitably open any 2 here.
I think I get a lot of credit for a big hand in this spot, all factors considered
5) I think I'm getting folds a lot of the time here and it will increase my stack by 30%

Blinds: 18,000
Antes: 10,000
his open: 27,000

18,000+10,000+27,000/180,000= 30%

My question is this. The spot is there. Should I be folding to the money, or taking this spot every time?

I'm trying to get back to the 30BB comfort zone without showdown. Taking this spot gets me back to 20 BBs.

side note: if i win this flip I have 415k and am ready to make a deep run.(sorry, hard not to be results oriented)

brooksea

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Guests

July 18, 2011 - 11:34 am

It sounds like your reads were correct, and you just ran into a monster. Having said that, I usually fold here and wait for a better spot w 15 bb. I am on the tighter side, though. If called you are always crushed w a hand like that. It also depends on how tough the table is, and how much I need the cash. Interested to hear more opinions on this. Thanks for the interesting spot and good luck!

FkCoolers

Cambridge, Ma (Central Square)

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July 3, 2010

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July 18, 2011 - 7:58 pm

It sucks that he’s opening so many pots because I’d rather open jam ATC in this scenario than jam over an open with just 15 bb but the hand you chose is perfectly fine in this spot. Just sucks he had a hand here and you lost flip.

hawkeyeK9

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Guests

July 20, 2011 - 12:27 pm

I fold pre but your play seems fine. 3bet shoving 15bbs live is like doing it with 20bb's online and it seems like you had good reads. Reason I fold pre is that you are on the money bubble and you can find better spots to just open shove with monsters in the next few orbits. Even if you got down to 10bbs looking for your spot that is not a big deal live (not ideal but not a big deal).

hapetimes

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Guests

July 24, 2011 - 8:05 am

I have to agree with hawkeye here

I've been dabbling lately with folding more hands that i would normally shove or 3bet shove with certain stack sizes and situations (but only online though)

It just seems that whether i have 9or10 bb's or 17bb's people just decide they want to call and do it

Not the best way to build a stack but in situations like this it can mean the difference between a min cash and a donut

Also lowers the overall variance by risking all of our chips a less number of times when we aren't clear favourites

i'd prefer to fold and wait for a spot to open shove but your play seems fine

bennymacca

Adelaide Australia

Road Gambling with Doyle

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July 24, 2011 - 9:10 am

i agree with the above – sometimes i get too spewy aggro with 17bb stacks when i could just as easily fold down to 12-13bb and get it in in a much better spot. over the course of a tournament, that means you could be all in several times less, which is obviously lower variance

My Personal Blog: .....ymacca.com

kingten102

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Guests

July 24, 2011 - 11:22 am

thanks all for the feedback. If this wasn't the Bubble, I think I am still taking the spot. Basebaldy is opening super light here, alot of the time. I guess I was being results oriented when it is all said and done. If I think I have fold equity and a decent image, I am shipping his open, in that spot, every time, regardless of hand strength.

Some may call it spewy, but we are always looking for “spots” to accumulate chips. This seemed like the perfect spot at the time.

If the SB didn't wake up with a premium, Basebaldy snap folds, and we take our 30% stack increase onto the next hand.

Side Note: Because it was the bubble, my image was super tight, and it was my first 3 bet since the SB had been at the table….I would have seriously considered folding the AK if I was the SB. He beats nothing and I am representing a Monster made hand. I think people seriously overvalue AK, but that is a whole other thread.

thanks again all

—-HUNSUCKER

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