Scot,

You’re right that these blind vs blind spots can be quite tricky. I’d recommend at the very least starting with something like Flopzilla and just getting a sense of what your range will look like on the flop (note that this doesn’t require making any assumptions about the opponent’s range). The goal should be to have some hands that call and some that fold at each decision point, and the proportions of these ranges should be determined by the size of your opponent’s bet. The bigger he bets, the larger your folding range should be.

Your flop range should include most if not all pairs (some pocket pairs, especially 22 – 44, could be folds) plus the obvious draws and some floats that would mostly be backdoor draws like 76dd. Your folds will be all the hands that just whiffed entirely.

When you face another bet on the turn, your range is much stronger than it was on the flop, so you need to find the “new bottom”. This will mostly be the worst pairs you called the flop with and backdoor draws that didn’t improve. Some of these could be bluff raises as well, depending on how many value raises you could have.

On the river, it will be the same process again, folding the “new bottom” of your range and calling everything else. So what you describe (call two streets with second pair, call three with top pair) is broadly correct, though the details matter a lot depending on the board, whether draws get there, etc. Keep in mind that you’ll often be raising your stronger hands, so it will be hard for you to have stuff like sets and two pair on the river. That means any top pair will probably be close enough to the top of your rnage to call, at least if you’re trying to play unexploitably.

Now, you may believe that the typical small stakes player drastically underbluffs this spot, but that’s a judgment call for you to make. I think it’s good to have an idea of what your default would be and also how much of a deviation from the default it would be to fold this particular hand. It would be a pretty big deviation IMO, which doesn’t make it wrong necessarily but does mean that you need a lot of confidence in your read.