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bvb , shove bottom pair ott?
folding_aces_pre_yo
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May 30, 2015 - 3:26 pm
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#Game No : 700325902
***** 888poker Hand History for Game 700325902 *****
$500/$1,000 Blinds No Limit Holdem - *** 
Tournament #69384113 $9 + $1 - Table #6 9 Max (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: EAbyw ( $14,548 )
Seat 2: classone ( $33,560 )
Seat 3: mac42688 ( $19,966 )
Seat 5: london_ace ( $13,380 )
Seat 6: fooolbook ( $9,750 )
Seat 7: icakinen ( $24,345 )
Seat 9: GrindYourMum ( $106,160 )
Seat 10: FISH_MONGER1 ( $28,716 )
mac42688 posts ante [$125]
FISH_MONGER1 posts ante [$125]
GrindYourMum posts ante [$125]
classone posts ante [$125]
EAbyw posts ante [$125]
icakinen posts ante [$125]
london_ace posts ante [$125]
fooolbook posts ante [$125]
mac42688 posts small blind [$500]
london_ace posts big blind [$1,000]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to london_ace [ 2heart, Qclub ]
fooolbook folds
icakinen folds
GrindYourMum folds
FISH_MONGER1 folds
EAbyw folds
classone folds
mac42688 raises [$1,750]
london_ace calls [$1,250]
** Dealing flop ** [ 7heart, Tclub, 9heart ]
mac42688 checks
london_ace checks
** Dealing turn ** [ 2club ]
mac42688 checks
london_ace ???
 
heey!
 
 
No reads.
 
Thoughts on shoving turn? 
 
i was wondering if anyone likes shoving turn here to get maybe folds from 7x 9x ?, i would argue
though that villan should be betting those hands so when he checks flop and then checks turn their range just seems very weak and i'm likely to have the best hand.
if anything if i shove here it would be for thin value/protection against a hand like 8x Jx or any other hand that has decent equity and also we may be 
able to get villian to fold better hands too which include 7x 9x , though again i'm not too sure if v will fold a hand like 2ed pair bvb. 
 
All in all though i think shoving turn is OK imo I think our hand does have SDV but getting villian to fold those hands that have decent equity is good for us.
 
 
cheers.
Fire
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May 30, 2015 - 6:22 pm
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The problem is you're not repping anything here, the flop is full of draws and you check and now you shove. Tbh, pretty sure also that your preflop call is -EV. Are you calling with any two here 13BB deep against a larger stack?

folding_aces_pre_yo
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May 30, 2015 - 7:58 pm
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the call pre is fine , we are getting good odds on the call pre 🙂

 

I'm not calling here with any two though , hands like T2o im folding. Yeah i agree i'm not repping anything if i shove turn.

 

so you're happy to go to showdown?

joelshitshow
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May 31, 2015 - 12:29 pm
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You're odds preflop are good, but your implied odds aren't. Someone please correct if I'm wrong, but implied odds don't only matter for connected cards and set mining. You're basically two-pair-or-better mining when you flat a preflop raise with a hand like this.

 

Having said that, if I see an otherwise experienced player flat with 13 BBs, even out of the BB, I expect him to be very strong, the problem here is the board doesn't connect with AK/JJ+. When the villain checks behind, he has a big ace (not suited in hearts).

 

If you're trying to win the hand, you have to treat this like a stop and go, I think, and shove on the flop or turn. Depending on your image, you could probably take it down with a bet on the turn, as played. If it were bigdog I wouldn't believe you, though, because he loves to take pots away.

 

Hope this all makes sense or can be corrected if wrong.

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June 1, 2015 - 6:54 pm
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joelshitshow said:

You're odds preflop are good, but your implied odds aren't. Someone please correct if I'm wrong, but implied odds don't only matter for connected cards and set mining. You're basically two-pair-or-better mining when you flat a preflop raise with a hand like this.

 

Having said that, if I see an otherwise experienced player flat with 13 BBs, even out of the BB, I expect him to be very strong, the problem here is the board doesn't connect with AK/JJ+. When the villain checks behind, he has a big ace (not suited in hearts).

 

If you're trying to win the hand, you have to treat this like a stop and go, I think, and shove on the flop or turn. Depending on your image, you could probably take it down with a bet on the turn, as played. If it were bigdog I wouldn't believe you, though, because he loves to take pots away.

Hope this all makes sense or can be corrected if wrong.

I agree. Well two pair mining is a bit extreme. I mean if you call there, and you hit a Q you pretty much gotta go with it for the remaining 11 BB or so. Yes, implied odds are the reason why the call is bad, if it was just for pot odds you would need to call almost every PF 3bet, but pot odds are of limited significance when you have many streets to play and much behind relative to the pot.

Yes, the big dog is good on these things but here it doesnt take a genius to figure out that the 2 OTT couldnt have really helped any legitimate hand that would shove except 22. Yes, if you want to shove the flop is much better, as played I would check the turn.

folding_aces_pre_yo
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June 2, 2015 - 10:14 am
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I think folding pre here would be a big mistake given the good odds we are getting , villians range is going to be very wide here from the sb and we don't nessercerly need to hit a Q or 2 to win the pot either and if we do hit a Q the reletive strength of our hand is going to be strong given how wide villian's range is going to be from the sb plus V is going to fail to connect with the flop like 2/3 of the time so thats around 65%, meaning a bet of 1/3 only needs to suceed 33% of the time to break even 😉

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June 2, 2015 - 7:54 pm
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folding_aces_pre_yo said:

I think folding pre here would be a big mistake given the good odds we are getting , villians range is going to be very wide here from the sb and we don't nessercerly need to hit a Q or 2 to win the pot either and if we do hit a Q the reletive strength of our hand is going to be strong given how wide villian's range is going to be from the sb plus V is going to fail to connect with the flop like 2/3 of the time so thats around 65%, meaning a bet of 1/3 only needs to suceed 33% of the time to break even 😉

Do what you must but all of what you said is true for villain as well plus even if his range is wide even the bottom of his range is probably much better than Q2 and with suited and/or connected cards you dont necessarily need to make a pair OTF. Plus he can just stop and go.

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June 3, 2015 - 12:26 am
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Fire said:

Plus he can just stop and go.

I assume what you mean by this is that Villain can shove any flop, but that's incorrect. He can't do so profitably, anyway. He doesn't know your cards, and like you, he's going to miss more often than not. It's OK for Hero to fold more than half the time postflop, because he's getting a great price preflop. If Villain literally shoves his stack on every flop, then your implied odds will be pretty good when you hit any pair. Even a pair of 2s will be ahead of Villain's range on most boards. As evidenced here, Villain is not necessarily going to fire every flop. Sometimes, you'll get to showdown a winner with a pair of 2s or even Q-high.

You're basically ignoring pot odds and position and just saying “Q2 is a bad hand, better fold”.

All of that said, Hero might show an even larger profit by making a small 3bet preflop rather than calling, because Q2o does in fact play pretty poorly after the flop.

folding_aces_pre_yo
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June 3, 2015 - 2:00 pm
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@focuault

yeah the reverse implied odds are terrible which makes me want to 3-bet. The stacks are awkward though, if we 3-bet small , say 4900-5000 and then V shoves we’re going to be need around 30% equity on the call, which Q2o does have, unless of course you’re going to take a marginally ev+ spot and fold to the 4bet? i mean most players are not really going to 4-bet shove too wide here at these stakes , right?

also are you checking down with your pair of 2s , and if so why?

Player Equity Win Hi Tie Hi Range

1 69.2 68.6 1.2 22-AA, A”K-2″{RB}, K”Q-J”{RB}, [Q]J, [A”K-2″], [K”Q-T”], [Q”J-T”], [JT]
2 30.8 30.2 1.2 [Q]2

That’s the 4-bet shove range i gave villain.

Fire
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June 3, 2015 - 8:51 pm
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Foucault said:

Fire said:

Plus he can just stop and go.

I assume what you mean by this is that Villain can shove any flop, but that's incorrect. He can't do so profitably, anyway.

Well, I basically meant he may stop and go, perhaps a language issue (is that correct?). Obviously it depends on his range with how much of it he may profitably do that.

Foucault said:

You're basically ignoring pot odds and position and just saying “Q2 is a bad hand, better fold”.

 

Well, I mean there some reasons why a bad hand is a bad hand and I listed some to counter the OPs argument that pot odds make it profitable to call. So you're advocating a VPIP of 75% here? Or 100%? Yes, I know we're in position, that's a valid point, but given that stacks are quite shallow that loses some of its strength, that's also why I mentioned the stop and go. Hmm, maybe you can do that, but frankly I doubt many can play such a wide range profitably here, myself included. I had a look at my DB I'm 43/14 when open raised from the SB, and actually thought that was quite loose. Obv, this includes a lot of shoves and large raises / deeper stacks etc.

Foucault said:

All of that said, Hero might show an even larger profit by making a small 3bet preflop rather than calling, because Q2o does in fact play pretty poorly after the flop.

I agree that a raise is better than a call, but again that's a damn wide raising range, I fail to see how that is profitable.

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June 4, 2015 - 10:24 pm
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Fire,

I think VPIPing 100% against a small raise from the SB is reasonable. I’m still not clear on what you mean by “stop and go” in this context or why that should cause Hero to fold pre-flop.

Surely you agree that if V were jamming this would be an easy call with any two? The question, then, is only whether the post-flop action will be so unfavorable for Hero as to turn an otherwise profitable call into a fold. Given that Hero has position, I find that hard to believe. You’re right that shallower stacks cause position to be less valuable, but they also make questions of domination less of a concern.

Fire
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June 5, 2015 - 10:02 am
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Foucault said:

Surely you agree that if V were jamming this would be an easy call with any two? The question, then, is only whether the post-flop action will be so unfavorable for Hero as to turn an otherwise profitable call into a fold.

Uh, no? Why should you call with any two here?? Hero has over 12 BB left, I calculated it, even if V was jamming any two (which is obv quite unrealistic) calling with any of the bottom 45% is -EV.

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June 5, 2015 - 11:44 am
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Fire said:

Foucault said:

Surely you agree that if V were jamming this would be an easy call with any two? The question, then, is only whether the post-flop action will be so unfavorable for Hero as to turn an otherwise profitable call into a fold.

Uh, no? Why should you call with any two here?? Hero has over 12 BB left, I calculated it, even if V was jamming any two (which is obv quite unrealistic) calling with any of the bottom 45% is -EV.

Sorry, I meant if his raise to 2250 were all in you'd call any two.

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June 9, 2015 - 8:06 pm
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Ok, that makes sense. I did not deny that the immediate price is good, but only considering that, one would need to call in a lot of situations where one actually shouldn't (like pretty much every non-3-bet pot). What I like least about the call is that it's just not gonna go like in this hand a lot. I'd guess at least 80 % of time you will face a bet on the flop or turn or even a shove (hence stop and go) and my approach was always to consider future action in whether I want to get involved, especially as stack preservation should be important with under 20 BB. If you 3bet you would need to do this essentially with all the 70 % of hands that are better than Q2o. Maybe ok for some villains, but is highly exploitable.

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June 9, 2015 - 11:35 pm
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Fire said:

Ok, that makes sense. I did not deny that the immediate price is good, but only considering that, one would need to call in a lot of situations where one actually shouldn't (like pretty much every non-3-bet pot). What I like least about the call is that it's just not gonna go like in this hand a lot. I'd guess at least 80 % of time you will face a bet on the flop or turn or even a shove (hence stop and go) and my approach was always to consider future action in whether I want to get involved, especially as stack preservation should be important with under 20 BB. If you 3bet you would need to do this essentially with all the 70 % of hands that are better than Q2o. Maybe ok for some villains, but is highly exploitable.

Well, I do think a lot of people overfold when they are getting good odds to call, especially out of the big blind or when facing a small 3- or 4-bet. However, you're right that you have to consider not just your immediate equity but rather your expected value, or how well you will realize that equity. When you are out of position, you are at a big disadvantage, and virtually all of your hands will have trouble realizing anywhere near their full equity.

When you are in position, though, it shouldn't be as hard. There will be more opportunitities to pick off bluffs, pot control, bluff, and even make good folds, all of which will improve your ability to realize your equity.

It's true that Q2o is still the sort of hand that has trouble realizing its equity, because a lot of that equity is wrapped up in weak hands like no-pair or bottom pair. Position helps with this, but also when you are getting such great odds pre-flop you don't have to realize anywhere near 100% of your equity.

Think about what you are saying here. You are suggesting, perhaps correctly, that Villain will bet most flops. But then you are also suggesting that Hero will somehow lose money when he flops a Queen. How is this possible? How can your opponent bet so often and yet still have your hand beat more often than not when a Queen flops?

Also, you don't have to 3-bet all hands better than Q2o to warrant 3-betting Q2o. Many of those hands will play better as a call. You're that it would make no sense to fold T7s but three-bet Q2o. However, it may well make sense to call T7s but three-bet Q2o.

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