A couple more thoughts….

Your hand is seriously underrepped throughout.  Definitely does not look like an overpair.

This is a flop that hardly ever hits anyone.  Nobody is folding any pair on this flop IMO.  Villains' ranges are still fairly wide based on flop action.

My analysis in the previous post might be dead wrong, because I think I'm conveniently overlooking the fact that Xlang could very well have been checking a jack on the turn, given that he's a nit (slowplaying?), and then on the river he leads into two opponents (wouldn't seem like he'd do this with ace high or a pocket pair…maybe a flush?).  He leaves himself 10bb behind.

So I guess it might be a fold, since Brolto can't assume Xlang is bad enough to bet/fold the river with that many chips in the middle.

However, if Xlang had a jack, why wouldn't he either check the river, or open ship?

OK my head hurts.

Man this really is a great hand.  My one question is don't you think hes squeezing quite a few of his pairs here preflop?  I'm also very inclined to call but if he flatted with a hand like J9 or JT what line would he have taken here?  I also agree 44 could be in his range as it would make sense on all streets.  I think what it comes down to is the fact he is so hyper aggro and this looks like a perfect spot to bluff with so much in the middle already.  I really don't see him turning a flush into a bluff on the river here very often either.  I'm def. leaning towards call here as well.

I agree hawk, I’d put dude on JT+.

I think you should post this hand on HSMTT on 2 plus 2.  Would love to see what they say. 

Still think this is a mighty juicy bluff spot for him, looking at a pot of 384k on the river with 321k left.  Maybe a little reckless on his part, but like I said before, hero's range is capped.  He knows we don't have a jack. It's six handed and pay jumps are about to get significant.  It's a great spot for him to put us to the test.

Xlang's river lead looks like a stab at a pot nobody really wants.  He has shown no strength.  His hand looks like a medium pair.  He has left himself exactly 10 big blinds, which looks sort of suspicious to me.  (This line of thought regarding Xlang might be problematic, I admit.)

Our hand looks a lot like AK/AQ or a medium pair.  Something with showdown value given our flop and turn check on a board that's good to cbet.  Something that will not be able to call this shove.

(I'd call and get shown quad deuces probably.)

rivermen123 said:

I think you should post this hand on HSMTT on 2 plus 2.  Would love to see what they say. 

Still think this is a mighty juicy bluff spot for him, looking at a pot of 384k on the river with 321k left.  Maybe a little reckless on his part, but like I said before, hero's range is capped.  He knows we don't have a jack. It's six handed and pay jumps are about to get significant.  It's a great spot for him to put us to the test.

Xlang's river lead looks like a stab at a pot nobody really wants.  He has shown no strength.  His hand looks like a medium pair.  He has left himself exactly 10 big blinds, which looks sort of suspicious to me.  (This line of thought regarding Xlang might be problematic, I admit.)

Our hand looks a lot like AK/AQ or a medium pair.  Something with showdown value given our flop and turn check on a board that's good to cbet.  Something that will not be able to call this shove.

(I'd call and get shown quad deuces probably.)

I would agree with you if it was heads up. It is a multi-way pot and we cant forget how the BB played it. Changes the whole dynamic and makes this one close to impossible to think he is bluffing.

I disagree with the premise of checking to trap, too.  Cbetting doesn't mean he's going to fold.  He might raise as a bluff.  Checking twice….I think it's quite bad tbh.

(But I don't play 109s on Stars…..I play a $30 abi on Bodog….lol.)

And personally, if I'm in villain's shoes on the river, last to act, holding a hand with little or no showdown value (specifically at a final table with ICM implications, not at other stages of the tournament), I'm shoving also.  I've busted a lot of tournaments in 5th or 6th place with dumb ass plays like this, though.

FkCoolers said:

Yeah – I think I hero too much because I've read every reply on both sites and I'd still be shocked if villain shows up with a better hand more than half the time. 

I guess one thing that wasn't mentioned, though, is how Brolto had been playing postflop which is the thing that matters most. He can open 50% of pots but if he plays postflop weak-passive it becomes a clear fold. 

 

Here's the thing : I 4bet him 3 or 4 times at the final table bubble ( couple times light too, but he doesnt know that ) and all of times he folded, where he easily couldve 5bet bluffed, but he never was really aggro when we played a pot, he hardly ever called oop, which suggested to me, he was aggro yes, but also knew what he was doing. With the shorter stacks he was really aggro postflop on the bubble as well.

I came to the final table with the chiplead, but had to fold a couple times to a reship and to a c/r after flop, so I had been bleeding chips before this hand occurred.

Something which I can quite put my finger on, was the timing for the ship on the river, I felt like he was thinking: he lets look at this hand again, this might be a perfect bluff spot. But since I never had seen him bluff and he wasnt very agressive in pots with me I timebanked and convinced myself he had it, although my instincts said I should call. 

im pretty much with rivermen and ttwist on this one, i dont like checkin on that flop, if he's hyperaggro and a little spewy you want to get it in in this flop, like rivermen said, betting doesnt mean he's going to fold, he's going to semi bluff raise all his flush draws, pairs and even stone cold bluff you, so im betting and jamming over a raise against brolto. The history between you 2 even makes it more clear for me, he knows that you know he hasnt played aggro against you, so he knows that you dont have a J and you are not going to hero call him down as he hasnt shown resistance against you in the pots youve been playing. Bet and get it in on the flop, and avoid being put to the test in that gross river situation, but the way it was played, im calling him down. I think you'll be shown more than 50% of the times a mid pair or a bluff than a J