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Brokos Hand Reading, its the new craze
Gareth Chantler
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April 13, 2013 - 4:13 am
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We are well past the bubble but not close to the final table. 

 

Poker Stars $50+$5 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t1600/t3200 Blinds + t400 – 9 players – View hand 2175240
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

BB: BB = 44.5, t142533
UTG: BB = 6.8, t21691
UTG+1: BB = 12.7, t40593
UTG+2: BB = 15.7, t50208
MP1: BB = 12.2, t39132
MP2: BB = 50.0, t160012
CO: BB = 44.0, t140878
BTN: BB = 56.6, t180975
Hero (SB): BB = 35.9, t115034

Pre Flop: (t8400) Hero is SB with 9 of clubs 2 of spades
7 folds, Hero raises to t7777, BB calls t4577

Flop: (t19154) 8 of hearts 5 of diamonds K of clubs (2 players)
Hero bets t11855, BB calls t11855

Turn: (t42864) 2 of diamonds (2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks

River: (t42864) 5 of spades (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets t27555, Hero

 

Villain is playing around 12/12/7 over 40 hands and has a low AF. Hasn't showndown any hands of note (or that I can remember). A quick OPR search suggested he was a winning player mostly playing 3r, 8$-11$ buy in level, something like 1500 tourneys a year. So I assumed he was shot taking on a Friday night or was riding high after a 4k score in a 8$ tourney 2 nights ago. 

 

Pre Flop: (t8400) Hero is SB with 9 of clubs 2 of spades
7 folds, Hero raises to t7777, BB calls t4577

Preflop range: Villain has been playing nitty/tight as you would expect someone who grinds micros for profit would. I expect to turn an nice, immediate +cEV profit on my raise and since my stack is 35bb and we are not near bubble or final table this is sufficiently close to $EV. Villain probably doesn't 3b wide enough in this spot to get it in, meaning KQ could even be in their flatting range. So I would discount AQ+ 99+ entirely but after that it becomes more hazy. Bottom of their flatting range is probably 45s-68s type hands, K7o, KXs, Q8o. Though could be even tighter given I have stolen their blind in bvb twice previously and they don't seem interested in defending/restealing or stealing themselves. 

Flop: (t19154) 8 of hearts 5 of diamonds K of clubs (2 players)
Hero bets t11855, BB calls t11855

Flop calling range: I flop no equity on a dry board and decided against this villain to make a bigger c-bet in order to go one and done. I don't know if this is a good play: since I made it I suspect it isn't. But I thought I had lots of reasons to not barrel here and that he would call all small bets with all ace high, so my plan was one and done and bigger. Villain might not have a raising range here (which figured into my river decision). Villain's calling range is probably any pair, the good ace highs like AT/A9, 67s, 79s. His pairs can be lots of KX, decent number of 8x, and some 5x. 

Turn: (t42864) 2 of diamonds (2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks

Yay I beat some (most?)of his checking down range. His check back range really miffs me here. I think because of preflop and flop we can rule out most of AB's “Monster” category, though in this spot KQ is a pretty huge monster. If he just flatted flop with 55 would he check back? I have been playing 25/22 or something, nothing wild. I just have a strong propensity to believe that he would bet a lot of KX on the turn. So when he checks back, given that he should bet 67s/79s type hands as well, I put his range in the AB “showdown hand” category. 

River: (t42864) 5 of spades (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets t27555, Hero 

So why would a show down hand bet so big on the river? Does he always have 5X here? He can't have 8x and I thought he would bet KX on the turn. I also think after his flop call his range is so heavily KX because he calls so many offsuit and suited combos of KX compared to the rest of the deck and is by no means a lock to three-bet KQ. Would a player like this even be capable of betting big with A8 or K3?

On the other hand, if he has no raising range on the flop, he doesn't have to check back turn with KX that often to have enough of it for me to not seriously consider calling here. 

signed, rusty at MTTs

markconkle
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April 13, 2013 - 10:07 am
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I think you are giving this guy too much credit based on limited information.  Winning at the levels he's playing is not exactly a guarantee he's playing perfectly.  Given that he's been 12/12 with a low AF, you have some extra data saying he's probably not playing well.  As a frequent player at this level, I think a lot of higher-stakes players are too willing to remove hands from someone's range.  Sure, there's a chance he plays just like you describe, but there's a chance he plays very differently too.

 

Regardless, I don't think Kx is an automatic bet on the turn, if he has something like K7 I don't think he's expecting to get three streets of value from a pair of 8s, so we might he not check hope to get one more bet on the river?  He can't really assume you are drawing here and shouldn't think a free card is particularly damaging.

 

On the other hand, given how tight passive he's been so far, why isn't he sometimes flatting 67 here?  Remember, you have no evidence he's great, just decent.  

 

I could also see him calling flop with A high, especially with a backdoor flush, but even A9-AJo I think is in a lot of villain flop calling range.  Given the blind v blind situation, I think he could easily consider these hands to have showdown value.  

 

My range for him after the turn is any 5 or 8 he saw the flop with, any king below KT, 67, some A highs.

 

I think he checks back hoping to win with his 8s and Ahigh, bets Ks, 5s, and 67.  You have shown enough weakness I don't think he's bluffing with A high.  Since we're not even sure if he plays 67 this way, I really think he has something 95% of the time.  I doubt he's betting this big and planning to fold a king.  Not that I think bet/calling with K3 here is correct, but just that it's still compatible with being a winning player.   Bet/folding away so much equity seems much less compatible.

 

I feel confident in a fold here.

markconkle
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April 13, 2013 - 10:08 am
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Oh, and by the way, love your material on the Thinking Poker Podcast.  Glad to see you here!

Gareth Chantler
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April 14, 2013 - 5:22 am
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Thanks for the post Mark. I agree with you for the most part and we shouldn't assume too much about how he plays KX esp on the turn. I'm just sort of lost against an opponent in a spot like this being pretty rusty at MTTs (read: I suck). I was pretty confident in check-fold on the river but his bet size made me hesitate a little bit. We'll never know since I did fold. 

 

re: TPP, thanks much, awesome to hear

Foucault

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April 14, 2013 - 9:19 am
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You could also ask yourself, “If he has a hand that needs to bluff, why did he check the turn?” This is a kinda sophisticated line for a bluff, not something I'd expect from a micro grinder nit. Seems to me the flop bet is a lot more clearly profitable than the PFR, though I suppose they are inversely correlated (ie the less he calls pre the more profitable the PFR but the less profitable the flop bet).

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April 14, 2013 - 9:48 am
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From your description and his stats, I think he fits closest to the TAGfish profile.  A TAG fish is sort of a TAG preflop and tight passive post flop.  

Preflop: I think we can pretty much assume he's 3 betting 99+ and AJ+ (with the possible exception he may be slow playing AA or KK.  This is a good spot and stack size to flat with AA here).  His most likely hands are broadway hands, pocket pairs, suited connectors and suited Aces.  I can't see his flatting much else as tight as he is, unless you have a totally crappy image here.  

Flop:

Monsters: AA, AK, KK, 88, 55, and 85s

Marginal: 99 – QQ, Kx, AQ, 8x, 33, 44, 66, and 77.  He may peel with all one pair hands BvB to the c-bet.

Draws and air: 76s, random floats.

Notes: Some of these hands are not in his range as often as others, for instance, hands like QQ and AK 3 bet pre.

 

Turn: 

Monsters: Nothing really changes here, except that he may fire the turn with the second diamond hitting unless he puts you on total air and is hoping to allow you to bluff off on the river.  22 gets promoted to monsters if he peeled one off with a small pair.  

Marginal: check behind for pot control would be typical here so nothing changes.

Draws and air:  I think we can remove the complete air floats here as he misses his spot.  But there is a possibility of a float with two diamonds and he picked up a flush draw and checked behind here for the free card.  

 

River:

Monsters: AA*, AK* KK*, 88, 55, 22*, 8s5s, potentially 5x if he peeled the c-bet with this.

Marginal: 99, TT, JJ*, QQ*, Kx, 8xs, 33, 44, 66, 77.  The way the hand played out, it is possible he could be betting marginal hands for value on this river.  But I think he checks back the bottom of this range on the river, so in the final analysis, I will assume he checks back the bottom hands in this range, which is more consistent with his profile than trying to get thin value.  (33 – 77).

Draws and air: 76s and backdoor flush draws he picked up on turn.  

 

Considering the few possibilities for draws and his player profile, I think we can eliminate draws and air from his range for the most part  In my final analysis, I will only add a small % of a bluff possibility.  If we reduce all of the hands with an asterisk 50% we have the following distribution:

Monsters: AA(3), AK(6), KK(1), 88(3), 55(1), 22(3), and 8s5s(1) – for a total of 18 hands in this distribution.

Marginal: 99(6), TT(6), JJ(3), QQ(3), KQ(12), KJ(12), KT(12), J8s(3), T8s(3), 98s(3), 87s(3), and 86s(3) – for a total of 69 hands in this distribution.  (Let's add 5 hands just to account for random bluffs as everybody bluffs and there realistically never a 0% chance of a bluff.

 

Now we have to ask whether he will fold marginal hands to a raise here and if so how many of them?  And if so, how much do we have to bet.  

We have t95k left behind.  The pot currently has t70,419 and the bet facing us is 27,555.  A small raise may fold out any hand worse than Kx.  Hands like KX or better will at least call and if we are raised we are done.  So in 54 of a total 92 he will probably call or raise.  Now we can pretty safely assume his bluff range to 3b this river is near 0%.  It may happen but the results now may be so small that it is safe to ignore them.  38 of 92 times we can potentially pick up the pot with a small raise.  If we raise to t65k we are betting t65k to win t70k.  We need him to fold 48% of the time and we are not getting this unless he starts folding out Kx.  If he folds all his marginal hands to a small raise, then it is profitable.  But what are you representing?  You checked the turn and checked the river after he checked back the turn.  Good players might sniff this out as a desperation bluff and call with all their marginal hands.  

 

If we raise to t80k and somehow get hims to fold 1/2 of his Kx range now we are folding out 56 of 92 hands.  We are betting 80k to win 70k so we need 53% FE to break even, and we might be getting 60% here.  If this is a true assumption and you do get this much FE for the 80k bet, then the profit for this move is: t10k.  Small profit.

So now we look to ICM/Stack size considerations.  If you fold, your current stack is t95k.  Still just under 30 BBs and competitive considering stack sizes.  If you win your stack would be t166k, over 50BBs and the second biggest stack at the table.  However, ICM considerations, I have to assume that the chip loss here hurts ICM more than it helps you to win these chips, so making a bluff with a small edge here may not be wrorth the chips at risk.  

I might assume that the chips lost are worth at least 1.5x the value of chips won (see Kill Everyone for Bubble factors for more info in this).  Which would turn this into a cEV positive to a $EV negative move.  

rivermen123

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April 15, 2013 - 4:58 pm
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There’s no reason to try to steal with this hand.Gareth Chantler said:

We are well past the bubble but not close to the final table. 

 

Poker Stars $50+$5 No Limit Hold’em Tournament – t1600/t3200 Blinds + t400 – 9 players – View hand 2175240
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

BB: BB = 44.5, t142533
UTG: BB = 6.8, t21691
UTG+1: BB = 12.7, t40593
UTG+2: BB = 15.7, t50208
MP1: BB = 12.2, t39132
MP2: BB = 50.0, t160012
CO: BB = 44.0, t140878
BTN: BB = 56.6, t180975
Hero (SB): BB = 35.9, t115034

Pre Flop: (t8400) Hero is SB with 9 of clubs 2 of spades
7 folds, Hero raises to t7777, BB calls t4577

Flop: (t19154) 8 of hearts 5 of diamonds K of clubs (2 players)
Hero bets t11855, BB calls t11855

Turn: (t42864) 2 of diamonds (2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks

River: (t42864) 5 of spades (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets t27555, Hero

 

Villain is playing around 12/12/7 over 40 hands and has a low AF. Hasn’t showndown any hands of note (or that I can remember). A quick OPR search suggested he was a winning player mostly playing 3r, 8$-11$ buy in level, something like 1500 tourneys a year. So I assumed he was shot taking on a Friday night or was riding high after a 4k score in a 8$ tourney 2 nights ago. 

 

Pre Flop: (t8400) Hero is SB with 9 of clubs 2 of spades
7 folds, Hero raises to t7777, BB calls t4577

Preflop range: Villain has been playing nitty/tight as you would expect someone who grinds micros for profit would. I expect to turn an nice, immediate +cEV profit on my raise and since my stack is 35bb and we are not near bubble or final table this is sufficiently close to $EV. Villain probably doesn’t 3b wide enough in this spot to get it in, meaning KQ could even be in their flatting range. So I would discount AQ+ 99+ entirely but after that it becomes more hazy. Bottom of their flatting range is probably 45s-68s type hands, K7o, KXs, Q8o. Though could be even tighter given I have stolen their blind in bvb twice previously and they don’t seem interested in defending/restealing or stealing themselves. 

Flop: (t19154) 8 of hearts 5 of diamonds K of clubs (2 players)
Hero bets t11855, BB calls t11855

Flop calling range: I flop no equity on a dry board and decided against this villain to make a bigger c-bet in order to go one and done. I don’t know if this is a good play: since I made it I suspect it isn’t. But I thought I had lots of reasons to not barrel here and that he would call all small bets with all ace high, so my plan was one and done and bigger. Villain might not have a raising range here (which figured into my river decision). Villain’s calling range is probably any pair, the good ace highs like AT/A9, 67s, 79s. His pairs can be lots of KX, decent number of 8x, and some 5x. 

Turn: (t42864) 2 of diamonds (2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks

Yay I beat some (most?)of his checking down range. His check back range really miffs me here. I think because of preflop and flop we can rule out most of AB’s “Monster” category, though in this spot KQ is a pretty huge monster. If he just flatted flop with 55 would he check back? I have been playing 25/22 or something, nothing wild. I just have a strong propensity to believe that he would bet a lot of KX on the turn. So when he checks back, given that he should bet 67s/79s type hands as well, I put his range in the AB “showdown hand” category. 

River: (t42864) 5 of spades (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets t27555, Hero 

So why would a show down hand bet so big on the river? Does he always have 5X here? He can’t have 8x and I thought he would bet KX on the turn. I also think after his flop call his range is so heavily KX because he calls so many offsuit and suited combos of KX compared to the rest of the deck and is by no means a lock to three-bet KQ. Would a player like this even be capable of betting big with A8 or K3?

On the other hand, if he has no raising range on the flop, he doesn’t have to check back turn with KX that often to have enough of it for me to not seriously consider calling here. 

signed, rusty at MTTs

This reply is going to be really annoying, but the bottom line is fold pre. You'’re not under that much pressure yet. There’s no need to try to steal in every spot.

If you are going to steal, make it bigger blind vs blind. It's certainly still +EV to make it as big as 3x.

If you want to rep a king, barrel turn.

A lot of TAGfish will pot control on the turn for no good reason, then try to make it up with a bigger river bet. I think he has Kx a lot here.

Gareth Chantler
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April 15, 2013 - 6:17 pm
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I don't really feel like I am under any pressure at all, but if he is only defending like 35% of hands here shouldn't I be stealing with any two cards?

jjpregler
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April 16, 2013 - 1:29 pm
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Gareth Chantler said:

I don't really feel like I am under any pressure at all, but if he is only defending like 35% of hands here shouldn't I be stealing with any two cards?

To be honest, these are specifically the type of hands I fold to create an image that I'm not trying to steal every time I get the chance.  Folding the trash in steal spots gives you an image that you are selectively stealing based on card strength.  While you are still trying to attack the pot often, folding these while stealing may still be slightly +cEV helps make future attempts more +cEV.

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April 16, 2013 - 8:30 pm
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Gareth Chantler said:

Flop: (t19154) 8 of hearts 5 of diamonds K of clubs (2 players)

Hero bets t11855, BB calls t11855

Flop calling range: I flop no equity on a dry board and decided against this villain to make a bigger c-bet in order to go one and done. 

Your reason for betting bigger on the flop seems like a good reason to bet smaller.  I always think that the drier the flop the less I need to bet to bluff.  Its nit picky, but i think 8000 gets the same thing done as 11855.
I probably fire again on the turn.  He might be sticky on the flop w/ any pair, any A, and you might even get him to fold a K if he is really nitty.  If he raises its an easy fold.  and once he calls flop and turn, you can check fold the river unimproved, as this guy is rarely bluffing, and probably happy to check it back.
NBG
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April 17, 2013 - 2:53 am
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Hey Gareth, good to have you on the forums, I really enjoy your appearances on TPP, and can relate to your experience with uni alot (unfortunately? haha).

 

Anyways, in relation to the discussion of pre-flop: one thing that Big Dog has said numerous times on podcasts/videos is that he doesn't find it necessary to take EVERY +cve spot, I think this is one of those spots.

I guess that a fold would be my option as i'm no where near the hand reader I would want to be to play 92o post flop. I feel like my posts should come with a disclaimer or something.

Gareth Chantler
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April 19, 2013 - 4:23 am
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Hey guys 

 

Thanks for all the great feedback. I was watching Big Dog's Million replayer series and its pretty interesting how he turns down spots to push edges in the early stages and plays pretty tight/straightforward. I mean, I am inclined to believe I made the wrong choices at every point in this hand (except the river) because of how bad I am at MTTs, so I agree with a lot of the posts. Was donking it up last night too so there will be plenty more coming :).  

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April 20, 2013 - 2:55 pm
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MotherFuggle said:

Gareth Chantler said:

Flop: (t19154) 8 of hearts 5 of diamonds K of clubs (2 players)

Hero bets t11855, BB calls t11855

Flop calling range: I flop no equity on a dry board and decided against this villain to make a bigger c-bet in order to go one and done. 

Your reason for betting bigger on the flop seems like a good reason to bet smaller.  I always think that the drier the flop the less I need to bet to bluff.  Its nit picky, but i think 8000 gets the same thing done as 11855.
I probably fire again on the turn.  He might be sticky on the flop w/ any pair, any A, and you might even get him to fold a K if he is really nitty.  If he raises its an easy fold.  and once he calls flop and turn, you can check fold the river unimproved, as this guy is rarely bluffing, and probably happy to check it back.

Dry flop -> bet less is a good general rule but there are a lot of variables. The fact that this is a wide range vs wide range spot is an important consideration. If Gareth is planning just one barrel, then I think it makes sense to size on the larger size (though still not as large I would if I were planning just one barrel on a wet board) to discourage floats/light peels. In BvB spots even players not generally inclined towards such things may seize the opportunity if your bet is small. If you're planning on firing twice, which barring a turned pair I don't think Hero should be, then you WANT Villain to peel flop light, and betting smaller makes sense.

 

jjpregler said:

Gareth Chantler said:

I don't really feel like I am under any pressure at all, but if he is only defending like 35% of hands here shouldn't I be stealing with any two cards?

To be honest, these are specifically the type of hands I fold to create an image that I'm not trying to steal every time I get the chance.  Folding the trash in steal spots gives you an image that you are selectively stealing based on card strength.  While you are still trying to attack the pot often, folding these while stealing may still be slightly +cEV helps make future attempts more +cEV.

Fair point but not a dispositive one. The less observant/adaptive your opponents are, the more inclined you should be to take spots like this one. Also it could be correct for the big dog to fold this and for Gareth to raise it for two reasons:

 

a) Bigdog is a better late game player than Gareth. There's more value for him in passing up marginal spots earlier.

b) Gareth has more experience in wide range vs wide range confrontations of this sort, making it less of a marginal spot for him. 

 

To be honest though if I somehow knew that the BB was going to fold 65% of the time to a raise (which could easily be a bad guess but that's a separate question), I seriously doubt it would be correct for anyone not to raise.

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