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July 15, 2015
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After satelliting into the Bovada Sunday major yesterday, I made an epic run to the final table. I had a massive chip lead for at least 2 or 3 full hours heading into the final table, I think I only lost 1 significant pot that entire time. Final Table bubble burst with 2nd place winning a massive pot, so I entered FT basically tied for first. Sadly, this epic run to the FT was matched by an epic collapse on it, where I found a way to bounce in 8th, failing to win even a single pot. I lost biggish pots the first two hands in pretty standard spots (I might have made a small mistake or two but nothing huge). Then went into a shell for awhile until the following hand came up, which could have been pulled straight from an example hand in Mathematics of Poker:
Blinds 15k/30k/3k
UTG has 450k (15 blinds). There are 2 shorter stacks then UTG at the table.
HJ has 1mil (33 blinds).
Hero (BB) has 600k (20 blinds).
Hero dealt Kd Tc in BB.
UTG opens to 60k.
HJ calls 60k.
Hero (BB) calls 30k.
Thoughts? Folding not an option getting this good a price right?
Flop (225k): 2s 2h Ts
Hero checks.
UTG cbets to 80k.
HJ folds.
Hero calls 80k.
-Feel like we have to peel 1 when we flop top pair.
Turn (385k): 2d 2s Ts As
Hero checks.
UTG checks.
This is a very interesting card. Bad for our specific hand, but our range consists exclusively of 2s (we have plenty because we are calling wide out of the BBlind getting 6.5-1) flushes, and Ts (as well as AT, 22, and TT). Villain now has almost exclusively 1 pair hands bigger than Ts (overpairs and big As with a few odd worse hands and a very occasional full house or flush).
River (385k): 2d 2s Ts As 4c
UTG has 310 left in his stack.
Hero?
May 20, 2013
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If your read is right, this is a really hard shove for him to call… but it is clearly a bluff as your pair is rarely (never) good here. Let's reverse it… If you had QQ here, would you call off your stack? What if one of the Queens was a spade?
TPE Pro
August 4, 2015
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Even though youre getting a great price to flat in the big blind, I think you should be particularly tight in this spot with your flatting range preflop. This is mainly because of icm considerations and the fact that both of your opponents should have strong ranges. Someone raising UTG on 15bb with two shorter stacks at it's widest is probably something like 77+, AJ+, ATs, KQ, KJs. A lot of people may have tighter ranges then that as theyre going to shove some of those hands. The flatter in the h/j probably has a similar range and isnt capped at all with shove stacks behind. I think flatting KTo is probably fine, but the only deuces I would flat are ones with suited aces or maybe kings.
On the flop we're in a tricky spot. When the action gets to you there's 305k in the pot and the villian has 310k left behind. Given that our hand is decently strong but somewhat vulnerable (ie spades and overcards hitting) and the stack-to-pot ratio, I think we need to just get our hand in. We're not fist-pumping and we're in rough shape when he calls us, but i do think on this board he can cbet/fold most of his big aces, can call with the ones that have flush draws and potentially call us with 77-99 along with the overpairs that beat us.
When he checks the As turn, I would expect him to have AA, TT, an A with K, Q, or J of spades and 77-KK. If your opponent is somewhat compotent I don't think I would advise turning our hand into a bluff. It's hard to rep flushes, because at this stack depth, we would be expected to get them in on the flop. The only deuces we should have are ones with suited aces or kings and the only other ace we could have is AT. We shouldn't have TT (shove pre) or 22 (fold pre) either. So our value shoving range would be super thin. Versus a button-clicker I think it's a good spot to jam the river as he's going to fold a bunch of the underpairs to the ace in his range.
July 15, 2015
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Hmm, interesting point about calling range pre-flop, perhaps we should be a little tighter than I was thinking, I was thinking I should be calling all suited Qs and Js as well as 24s type hands. Surely we are calling all pocket pairs right? We are getting 6.5-1 direct odds, we need very little implied odds to get to 8-1 needed to setmine. I'm also not sure I'm ripping TT here, as you said HJ can have the top of his range, I think he will be calling perfectly when we shove so I don't think I want to get 20 bigs all in against a nutted (UTG) + an uncapped (HJ) range.
On flop, I dont think I have a check-shoving range. My thought is that my range is so much more capped than my opponent. I feel like if I shove a T, my opponent will just play perfectly against me (perhaps he calls with 99/88 but that isn't guaranteed). Also, the most likely hand I am ahead of, AK, I have reverse-dominated. And If I'm not shoving my 1 pair hands, I dont want to shove my flush draws either or my shoving range will be all flush draws. Added to that, we are getting a great price to peel.
I agree villain can have AA, but I was willing to discount TT. I think he could play TT this way but I think many opponents will either check flop or continue on the turn. I think villain's range is 88-KK and AK/AQs, plus AA. I was hopeful that hands as strong as KK would fold, and thought there was even a tiny chance he might fold an A. I ripped, and he called with A and K
. Perhaps this was too ambitious to be ripping all Ts, but we should have some bluffing range to go with our 2s and flushes right? Just not sure how many to include and which Ts would be best.
April 5, 2014
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Taking ICM into consideration i doubt i call here against two players even with the odds we are getting. Its just to easy to get trapped by a better hand. But then again I am a nit. If im first into the pot I would raise with it but calling out of position with only 20bigs just feels wrong.
In the event that i did call I think you have to raise the flop. You can then evaluate how he reacts and if he goes nuts you can fold and still have 12ish big blinds to work with. Its not ideal but it is what it is.
As played I am check folding the river to any bet unless it is a min bet. He has a suited ace here way to many times for the 10 to be good that often.
October 21, 2013
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First post after a very long time so i might be a lil rusty…
I think the “stadard” line should be to check-fold, but i never liked “standard” things so…
what about shoving river ?
sure it might not the best bluff candidate cause technically we are not at the bottom of our range and we blocker a hand we want viallain to fold in this spot (KK) but there are many reasons that might induce us to do so anyay:
1- villain's check on the turn completely caps his range: by checking back that turn i believe his range is the usual JJ-KK AQ AK probably with one heart, (that or he has the nuts: AA – TT)
1.5- By having a T we reduce to 1 the remaining combos of TT
2- shoving river is consistent with a big part of our range, all FD turned a flush and by completing the BB we have many more 2s in our range than anyone else
3- we are at a final table, there are huge jumps and the usual vertical payout structure (i guess ? never played on bovada) so people might be wanting to ladder up.
4- You say at the beginning there are two stacks shorter than villain, we can apply a lot of ICM pressure.
5- Villain remains with 10bb (i think under a psychological point of view can make a difference)
Just food for thoughts…
June 11, 2012
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easy shove pre imho
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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I'm fine with action up to river. Definitely don't see a case for jamming flop. There's no prize for having the best hand when you win without showdown, and there is good reason not to jam hands that will perform very badly against V's calling range (the pair on the board means Hero's K outs aren't live against AA, and of course they aren't live against KK either). The fact that AK/KQ/KJ are drawing thin is more justification for calling.
Jamming river is an interesting idea and I like that people are discussing it, but I don't see V folding an A with a good kicker. I mean, if you think he might, go for it, because this is the bottom of your range, but I wouldn't recommend it. You do have showdown value vs small pairs and KQ/KJ, though V may bluff some of those, and I wouldn't recommend calling. Realize that ICM means that a bluff has to succeed much more often than usual in this spot.
July 15, 2015
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Yeah, I ended up jamming thinking I had a good shot at folding out JJ-KK (15 combos), and thinking it was unlikely but slightly possible to fold an A. I gave him all AA (3 combos) AK (9 combos) and AQs (3 combos), I suspected he didn't even have AQo or AJs in his range although I could have been wrong and this would have crushed the profitability of the bluff. So yeah its an awefully thin bluff spot already before even considering ICM.
So Andrew would you just have no bluffing range here? I was trying to decide best way to choose which Ts to bluff if we wanted to bluff a few but not all of them. Seems like KT would be best candidate as it blocks AK right?
December 11, 2013
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Definitely like the preflop call from BB and think it is the best option by far. Action up to river seems fine and I like the flop call. On river I think we should either check/fold or bet as a bluff, but if we are going to bluff I would advocate NOT SHOVING, betting a bit smaller like around 250k. I say this because I think it actually will be perceived to be stronger than a shove, and the times we do get called we still have some extra bb's to work with. I also think it is somewhat likely that villain will be calling this bet instead of shoving his extra 80k or so with any Ax hand. Having said all this, I probably go with a check/fold here somewhat often.
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