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Bounty builder $7.50 stars, Mid stages, Re-jam spot with AJo

Nas47

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February 7, 2018 - 7:12 pm

PokerStars – 3500/7000 Ante 1100 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 6.16 BB (VPIP: 49.30, PFR: 2.86, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 71)
UTG+1: 17.8 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
MP: 43.79 BB (VPIP: 21.82, PFR: 15.09, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 55)
MP+1: 41.74 BB (VPIP: 20.83, PFR: 15.91, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 48)
MP+2: 84.57 BB (VPIP: 36.00, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 50)
CO: 46.09 BB (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
BTN: 18.84 BB (VPIP: 17.14, PFR: 13.69, 3Bet Preflop: 10.13, Hands: 176)
SB: 21.43 BB (VPIP: 13.89, PFR: 9.86, 3Bet Preflop: 2.94, Hands: 72)
Hero (BB): 29.23 BB

9 players post ante of 0 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.91 BB) Hero has J club A heart

fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 2.1 BB, fold, CO calls 2.1 BB, BTN raises to 18.68 BB and is all-in, fold,

Hero?

I ran the spot in HRC ignoring the CO call and we can gii AJo for +1.45BB and HRC assumes OR opens 32% and BTN shoves 18%. I adjusted the ranges to 20% and 13% and AJo becomes a fold. There is a bounty in play. I don’t remember the exact amount unfortunately but it is about $20. What would you do and what criteria would you use to make your decision? Thanks for feedback in advance.

theginger45

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February 9, 2018 - 8:07 pm

Nas47 said

I ran the spot in HRC ignoring the CO call

Unfortunately this isn’t something that we can do with any reliability. We’re going to fundamentally change the math of the spot if we remove the CO call, so we have to run a version of it that includes the call, even if we assume the CO folds to the shove(s) 100% of the time.

The exact amount of the bounty also matters. In fact, at this stage of the tournament, a $20 bounty is worth a lot, since that’s close to 3 buyins. I think when we have the BTN covered and a chance to pick up the bounty, with a couple of blockers to hands the original raiser might overcall with, we’re in a decent spot.

We have a hand that can dominate some hands in the BTN’s shoving range, indicating that our equity is likely to be at least somewhere in the 35% region. It’s very difficult to do an exact calculation about the ICM value of the bounty compared to the potential negative cEV value of getting it in, but I think there’s a good chance the $EV outweighs the -cEV. I think we can get it in.

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