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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy Bottom 2 pair on draw heavy board

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Bottom 2 pair on draw heavy board

kardi31

Grinding Micros

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April 9, 2018 - 1:38 pm

Bounty $44 on Pokerstars. It’s a Saturday PSKO on Pokerstars, so bounties are bigger than normal.

PokerStars – 60/120 Ante 18 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 34.74 BB (VPIP: 15.53, PFR: 11.00, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 107)
Hero (UTG+1): 110.98 BB
MP: 22.9 BB (VPIP: 23.81, PFR: 7.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 42)
MP+1: 65.06 BB (VPIP: 35.71, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 42)
MP+2: 32.82 BB (VPIP: 20.24, PFR: 11.84, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 85)
CO: 24.07 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 40)
BTN: 41.77 BB (VPIP: 14.40, PFR: 10.48, 3Bet Preflop: 6.12, Hands: 125)
SB: 89.12 BB (VPIP: 25.93, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 5.41, Hands: 81)
BB: 78.54 BB (VPIP: 16.36, PFR: 7.27, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 55)

9 players post ante of 0.15 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.85 BB) Hero has J club Q spade

fold, Hero raises to 2.22 BB, fold, MP+1 calls 2.22 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 1.72 BB, BB calls 1.22 BB

Flop: (10.25 BB, 4 players) A spade J diamond Q diamond
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 9 BB, fold, fold, BB raises to 20.36 BB, Hero calls 11.36 BB

Reveal Spoiler

Turn: (50.97 BB, 2 players) 2 spade
BB bets 37.15 BB, fold

BB wins 50.97 BB

On such a draw heavy board I decided to bet big to protect my bottom 2 pair, especially in 4way pot. BB decided to raise me on the flop. Now here are the questions:

1. Is it correct to assume that BB has very few, if any bluffs in his range in that spot? I don’t really see him bluffing anything else than a very strong draw. Given that I bet really big into 3 other people, that would require huge balls to pull out a bluff with complete air.

2. If I assume that BB has very few, if any bluffs in his range, should I fold the flop?

I’m curious what are your thoughts on this hand. Few hours after this hand I had a similar one (I posted it in other thread) where big stack V flopped bottom 2pair, and couldn’t fold to my straight, which resulted in me having 350BBs .

DuckinDaDeck

Hunting Max EV

Sunday Major

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April 9, 2018 - 7:48 pm

I wouldn’t normally open QJo UTG+1 but with the table covered in a PKO I think its probably fine. If you’re going to bet, this is a good flop to size up on, but I still think your flop sizing is too large. There are pros and cons to any sizing, and I will say that erring on the side of large bets is good in PKOs.

On a Broadway board multi-way, you have almost the most marginal two pair you can flop in Holdem. I slightly prefer checking here. There are a lot of free cards we don’t want to see, but our hand is so vulnerable we may prefer getting closer to showdown than whatever value or protection we get from betting. Our range is very strong on this board, so decent players that give us action are going to hold strong ranges too.

I never assume anyone has 0 bluffs in their range, but this is about as close as it gets. Other than some combo draws I don’t expect many worse hands to raise, maybe overplayed Ax diamond . Aggro villains might use a naked K or T of diamonds to bluff. After betting so large any raise is very scary, but with the price we’re getting I think we need to peel. After betting smaller I’m not folding to any reasonable raise (maybe folding to certain players in MP), but proceeding with extreme caution on any turn that isn’t a Q or J.

theginger45

TPE Pro

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April 10, 2018 - 11:47 am

I’m perfectly happy assuming villain has zero bluffs when you make it this sizing on flop. The only question is where does their value check-raising threshold lie?

Given that we’re getting good odds to peel and we block AQ/AJ, I don’t think it’s out of the question to call with the expectation of some implied odds if we boat up – villain’s range is weighted towards combos of KT, given that they’re in the BB and therefore have all 16 combos in their range.

All of our boat outs are non-diamond, which is significant – it makes us more likely to get paid by KT in the event that we do bink a Q or J. You also cover villain, which incentivizes you to speculate for the possibility of picking up a bounty.

Having said that, I do think folding on the flop is entirely reasonable if you expect villain to be good enough to avoid paying you off for stacks when they do have KT and you boat up. I really think villain has KT here a huge frequency, given their preflop stats.

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