this is a re-entry tourney and 27 players cash. there are 45 left and I have an above avg stack of 160K (40bbs). I believe Blinds were 2000/4000 500 antes
Villain was moved to the table about 10 -15 hands ago and has been fairly aggresive. he has a stack of around 290K ( 72bbs). He has seen me 3bet once or at least.
I have JJ in UTG+1 (10 players) and open to 11100. everybody folds to him on the BB.
Villain on BB 3 bets to 40K.
I called.
Flop is 244
He shoves. Pot is 91K (40K + 40K +6000 +5000)
I have 130K left
What do I do?
consider that I could cruise to cashing (but min cash is only 657USD for a 300USD Tourney)
consider there were some smaller stacks and softer spots at the table but not many.
Your open size is way too big. The pot is gonna get bloated whenever you get played back at. I know it sounds silly but I slightly consider folding pre given you almost 4x'ed EP and this guy still 3bets you oop.
Given the situation post-flop, dont think you can fold. His shove on the flop makes me think you are in good shape because I feel like he would wanna just lead the flop kinda small if he had QQ+. I am getting it in at this point.
as you described villain as an agg player i would make the call most of the time
i wouldnt be surprised if he holds sth like 99,TT or also JJ. but QQ is definetly also possible.
AA,KK would surprise me cause the 4x 3b seems a lil high vs only 1 player when he normally wants to lure you in and also the shove looks more like a weaker hand.
Just a small correction as I did this from memory obv, I think the blinds were higher than originally, posted. I edited the original post. Sorry to Hawkeye and badbing since they already posted, but I dont think it changes much the analysis you made. I will post resutls etc… a little later on.
If blinds were higher, that makes the effective stacks smaller which creates a much different dynamic.
That being said, if the $ bubble is that important to you, it is probably a fold or a 4 bet preflop in my opinion.
YOU want to be the one putting him to the test, not the other way around. By flatting preflop, what boards are you
happy with when he shoves the flop and put you to the test.
Also, 10-15 hands isn't that big of a sample size to consider him aggro. He could have had a nice rush of cards.
my biggest factor with leaning towards a fold preflop, is his HUGE 3 bet from your early position open. I am giving him credit for AQ and QQ+
His flop shove is extremely abnormal, as he would want to extract value on such a safe board with hands that crush you.
I think after putting 25% of your stack in preflop, it's a call.(especially on a safe board, and especially because he could be abusing the bubble…but I don't like flatting preflop in this spot.
Side Note: Not crazy important, but I like to know small, meta game factors when reviewing live hands.
For Example:is he an older guy? young european? american? asian?. wearing a hoodie? have any patches on, or any indication that he is capable of being creative enough, to put in such a big 3 bet on top of your EP raise, then put in a more than pot size jam on the flop. without ALOT of info, I put him on QQ and fold preflop, and preserve my 37 BBs for a better spot, where YOU can be the aggressor.
interested to see the results…but his big 3 bet leads me to believe he had exactly QQ or AK, and that he was 35 or older….but i have been very wrong before.
—-hunsucker
July 3, 2010
Thanks for responses so far guys.
He was a younger kid with a hoodie. he looked kind of intense, adding to a generally aggresive image. I agree my open was kind of big but not out of line with the opens form the rest of the table. He looked competent.
This was my thought process:
After he 3 bet, His raise size seemed to discard AA and bluffs a lot, so I put him on this range:
AQs+ AKo, 99-KK worst case. so I did not see a reason to 4bet jam since I expected to make worst hands fold and flips and better hands to call. so it was flat or fold. I felt I could still win this pot enough of the time and could get away from bad flops enough to make the flatting worthwhile here, so I did flat in position (I expect to be done with the hand on flops with A, K and Qs, and wet boards with middle cards if he shows aggression but possibly take away if he doesn't). so I thought this flop was very good for me.
When he jammed I didnt see much change on the range I had for him, I thought he would bet smaller with AA and KK. QQ semeed very possible but I beat smaller pairs and was ahead of the AK and AQ combos ( I am 60% against this range AQs+ AKo, 99-KK ). I decided to disregard the impact of cashing on my decision, so I called.
He Happened to have KK
and no miracle on turn and river so GG for me
I would appreciate any additional comments on this.
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