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Bluff with QT on a paired board 100bb deep early on mtt

EstoEsPenarol

Lighting Money On Fire

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October 31, 2014 - 12:30 am

So lets see..

TOURNEY: Its a 2,2+R on stars. Late reg is over and we just came back from addon break.
VILLAIN: its quite tight, something like 10/8 in 100+ sample, didnt catch him doing anything too out of line and cant remember any hand he played before of this
PREFLOP: Im reaaally deep so I like peeling IP with a hand like QT vs a tight opener because he will miss most of the boards and I can take it with a float + turn bet. I think I couldve 3bet small (click back) to take control of the pot but flatting is the best way to go
FLOP: texture is great, a huge chunk of his range are broadways that completley missed so I stick to my plan of floating and betting turn if checked to me
TURN: Now the turn is interesting, because even though he does have some big aces on his range, I do have some big ones as well that I might have floated the flop with. Also, this can be a scary card for him (TT/KK, AT, AJ), and also is a great card for him to 2nd barrel so after he bets exactly half pot I decide to float for a 2nd time and wait for his check on the river to bet big and rep a big A
RIVER: The river doubles the A and Im pretty sure now that he does not have an A because of combinatory. When he makes it again exactly 50% I cant believe he has a value hand because he would try to go for max value here, my range is pretty much some aces, some pocket pairs?, and air, a big bet will get called by any pocket pair IMO from 88/99 to KK and ANY ace so why does he make it so small and “neutral”? To me he is betting some pocket pair from TT to KK just for yen and cant call a river raise. What I dont like at all is the raise size. I think I made it this small to rep a value bet wishing to be called but considering the range I put him into Im pretty much inviting him to call off, even if its just for information to see my hand: he has to be correct very few times to make this call profitable.

Poker Stars $2.00+$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t50/t100 Blinds + t10 – 9 players – View hand 2602525
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

JOelo83 (UTG+1): BB = 129.8, t12984
ASTARU (UTG+2): BB = 84.7, t8465
andpolem (MP1): BB = 125.7, t12568
JSMoore1901 (MP2): BB = 60.8, t6078
hossstyle77 (CO): BB = 121.7, t12170
Hero (BTN): BB = 112.4, t11240
PanForex (SB): BB = 144.7, t14465
RafaPJ10 (BB): BB = 121.5, t12155
awl65 (UTG): BB = 106.5, t10655

Pre Flop: (t240) Hero is BTN with T of spades Q of clubs
2 folds, ASTARU raises to t200, 3 folds, Hero calls t200, 2 folds

Flop: (t640) 8 of diamonds 4 of hearts 5 (2 players)
ASTARU bets t320, Hero calls t320

Turn: (t1280) A of spades (2 players)
ASTARU bets t640, Hero calls t640

River: (t2560) A of clubs (2 players)
ASTARU bets t1280, Hero raises to t2665, ASTARU calls t1385

—————–

Now looking back at it I think it might have been a little to pretentious and that he might not think at that deep level considering is a 2,2+, but still liked my line and think it worked out pretty alright!

Looking forward to your opinions!

joesmoe88

Grinding Micros

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October 31, 2014 - 1:04 am

I like your plan here but it seems like you got stubborn and deviated from the original idea. I think folding the turn is the play here. You make too many assumptions about what this guy will do and what his range looks like. If you told me a 10/8 took this line and asked what my calling range would be on the turn and river id say flopped sets and AQ+. Just think you leveled yourself here.

Foucault

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October 31, 2014 - 12:33 pm

Nah, just fold pre-flop. I know it feels deep for a tournament but you really are not that deep to be playing such an easily dominated hand. I don't follow your logic of picking this spot to plan a huge airball bluff as early as pre-flop. A tight player should be the worst target for this because he's far more likely to have a strong hand that will be hard to move him off of.

Even if it's true that he'll have an overly wide check-folding range on the turn, it's very expensive for you to take advantage of that. It costs you 520 chips just to get to the point in the hand where you think you'll have a good bluff spot, so if you were going to bet 640 on the turn had he checked you'd effectively be risking 1160 to win 670, which means you have to succeed really often. If he check-folds the turn 60% of the time and never check-call or check-raises, you still don't make money with this play.

Your turn logic is misguided as well. Just because you can have some Ax and he has some non-Ax doesn't mean you get to bluff profitably here. The Ax you float the flop with should be enough to protect you from bluffs on this card, but it's not enough to make your range a favorite vs his on this card, to the point where you can start looking at it as a good spot to bluff with air.

You should watch or re-watch my series on Bluffing, I think it will help you to find better spots and better understand what to look for.

Reasons14

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November 6, 2014 - 6:05 am

Preflop call is fine, it's going to be hard for us to make a bad call given the price we're getting.

However, while going about the hand, be aware of how many bluff combos and value combos you have in your range. Would you really play a set or straight this way? I'd guess with most of your value range, you probably lead flop and/or checkraise flop or call flop and check raise turn. Your range looks like a lot of flush draws, and you don't eve have that. Typically, boards that pair up when a lot of draws missed are the worst ones to bluff.

I also think that if you had Ax or even a boat, you would be a lot more likely to just bet/jam river instead of going for the check raise option, so that you can best rep bluffs.

Just remember, be aware of how you are playing your entire range.

MovesLikeDarvin

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November 14, 2014 - 2:45 pm

i dont “mind” preflop call, as ben said we're getting an okay price, and we'll have position and stacks to manuever with, which is good as well.

floating flop is also fine, we have a marginal backdoor straight draw and can prob rep hearts, plus if he has air, many 10/8s will check/fold bricked out turns. so your plan there is solid as well.

as played, i am snap-folding turn to a double barrel. 10/8 type players generally dont double barrel widely, even tho they probably should given their strong starting range pre. Ax hits his perceived range hard and i would expect weaker players to check/call Ax when they dont have an A more than bet it. i'd have chalked it up to a bad turn card and folded.

His triple on the river is EVEN stronger, and i cant imagine hes bet/folding too much now. if i didnt find a fold by the turn, i am by the river—my only other option is to raise, and like i said, he ain't bet/folding nearly enough for this plan to work out.

tl;dr, your plan was good in theory both pre and on flop, but poorly executed on turn and river.

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