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May 1, 2013
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ive seen some big game players calling raises with marginal hands like j10 j9 then calling off their entire stack to river with top or second pair, what i dont understand is though how do they know that their opponent is bluffing and not value betting qq aa kk , eg call raise pre with j10 , flop 1023 he bets u call turn say5 he bets u call river 8 he shoves and gets called by jack that wins but if ur holding j10 how do you know if he has a10 k10, aa, kk qq, jj?
Do they use hud to see how often players are opening and therefore if opening a lot they think they might be bluffing alot.
i cant use hud on my computer i dont have the memory capacity does that mean i cant make plays like these?
May 1, 2013
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cant make these plays
May 30, 2012
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I would say that it just comes from playing tons of hands, gaining experience, studying lines, and of course it is player dependent. I know that may not be the answer you are looking for, but when playing you are always asking yourself how to gain max value, and that leads to checking to your opponent to bluff at it with their missed draws, air, etc.
August 23, 2012
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When you see top name pros making calls like that, they doing it because the players they are playing against are incredibly aggressive. It would be suicidal to make those calls vs randoms in lower stake games because they are not going to be bluffing enough to make calling down profitabe. Also, you can use a HUD to see how often your opponent barrels with stats like: flop, turn, and river cb%.
February 3, 2013
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First of all it dependa on his villain and than on the board. Many players slow down with JJ+ on ur example board. They dont push on river, but making it maybe like 40-60% value bet. Most of time ppl are weak, if they 3barrel with a shove on river on dry board.
If i get called on flop and turn, when i cbet such a board, i get afraid of sets. So i check&call OOP on river or cbet river like 40-60% IP.
But its hard to say generally. It really depends on ur villain and the action. Depends on preflop action, on betsizing etc. Many factors u have to watch for. And if betsizing just screams “please dont call, i raise so huge, u CANT call this raise with just AT-JT” ur TopPair is very often good there. If he is 3barreling like 50-70% on flop, 50% on turn and 40-50% on river, its more often a monster, than huge bets
TPE Pro
June 14, 2012
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It's simply easier for you to have unpaired overcards than an overpair. If villain thinks your early position opening range is reasonably wide (we'll give you any pocket pair, any broadway combo, and any suited ace), there's 270 combos in your preflop range.
So the flop comes T32 rainbow. Of those 270 combos, just 81 give you top pair or better on T32r. Given your preflop range, you have top pair (48 combos), a set (9 combos), or an overpair (24 combos) about 33% of the time here. (And he might take sets out of your range, assuming you could be checking to trap.)
You said villain has JT. So let's take a jack and a ten out of the deck. That means you can now have just 30 combos of top pair, 7 combos of sets, and 21 combos of overpairs. That's 58 combos. This is a very small part of your opening range, and villain is often priced in to call down against that range if he thinks you're going to be barrelling your missed overcards, which make up the majority of your range.
So when the board runs out T3258, he's going to hang on with his JT almost every time (if he thinks you don't give up when you miss).
TPE Pro
June 14, 2012
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packallama said:
When you see top name pros making calls like that, they doing it because the players they are playing against are incredibly aggressive. It would be suicidal to make those calls vs randoms in lower stake games because they are not going to be bluffing enough to make calling down profitabe. Also, you can use a HUD to see how often your opponent barrels with stats like: flop, turn, and river cb%.
I'm not sure I agree with this 100%….there's a lot of spazzy randoms in low stakes these days. 
A HUD doesn't always help with turn and especially river betting frequencies in MTTs, since stacks are often too shallow to build a large enough sample of turn and river play.
TPE Pro
September 28, 2012
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What is likely happening here is that their range is wide enough(their being the person making the hero call). This means that they can still have a lot of marginal hands up until the final all in bet or river bet. This means that the villain can have a wide range(as in high stakes, the bettors range is more of a response to the perceived callers range, aka they c bet/cehck based off what they expect the caller to have). So when you have a wide range facing a big bet, you have to call with a certain % of your hands, in order to avoid being exploited by people who know your rnage is wide. The people bluffing are not trying to get top pair hands to fold, they are trying to get second pair and worse to fold, or not to give up agression in spots where both players have nothing/draws.
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September 1, 2012
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On a board like T2358 it does not make sense for someone to 3 barrel big, big, big, with their value hands especially when the preflop action was tame. They could be doing this hoping for a light call down but not that often.
If preflop action was min raise / flat call and you get a dry board like that, lets put yourself in the position of the aggressor and say you have AA and you are betting for value. You have to think about what your opponent has before you decide how to get value, and on this board, they most likely have nothing at all or a mediocre pair, such as a 10 or JJ. They could also have a set which crushes you. So you don't want to make 3 big scary bets, because you want to get value from a worse hand (you want to get called!). However if you are the aggressor and you have air in this spot, you probably want to try to push the player off some marginal hands, and a lot of villians will try to do this with big bets (you want to make it less attractive to call).
So if you are the guy with the JT on this board, you can call if you feel he is full of it, or if have knowledge of how he typically plays different hand strengths and if you think he is likely to barrell off here.
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