QQ very clearly ought to be strong enough to bet three times for value, particularly considering your sizing on the flop (which I like, don't get me wrong). The only reason to check the turn would be for exploitive reasons, because you think Villain won't defend as wide as he should on this board. Again, I think that's a good assumption against most MTT players, and I like the turn check.

When he near-pots the river, your hand is indeed a bluff-catcher. You aren't going to see pocket pairs or even a Jack from him. He either has a full house or he's bluffing.

I also don't think your hand matters much, given that he won't be value-betting worse. 99 might actually be a slightly better bluff-catcher if we think Villain is more likely to play 98o than Q9o. Likewise, AJ or AT might be better because I doubt he turns any Ax into a bluff, whereas if he called flop with KQ he might turn that into a bluff. But those are all really small differences.

He should get to the river with plenty of hands that would like to bluff, so it would be easy for him to exploit you if you were to fold most of your bluff-catchers. In my experience, though, most people just don't bluff as much as they should in this situation, and when they do they tend not to use sizing like this.

My only reluctance is that the sort of player who doesn't bluff here also tends not to have the wherewithal to bet this large with a full house. Still, I think I'd fold. I don't think you make a lot of money bluff-catching against large bets deep in donkaments.

Kalculater said:

@Foucault: What sort of bet sizing do you expect from villain with Jx? What sort of bet-sizing would you recommend we take in this spot with Jx, so as to exploit Mr Moon's calling range keeping it widest possible?

I don't particularly think a 200k gtd on Bovada is a donkament either. This is the maximum end of my buyin range however.

The smaller you bet, the more hands he should call with. Because your Jx loses to QQ/KK/AA, you need to keep quite a few weaker hands in his range to make value betting profitable. Even getting called by all combos of TT/99/77 only causes you to break-even on the bet. So really you need bet small enough that Villain calls consistently with 66 or AK.

ltcolumbo said:

As played, my read would be the pot size bomb on the river is to avoid a chop144/19 and he has Ax.  The effective stack started at 30 BB and you each have 21 left.  If he does have Ax, this is a good leverage move as you can fold and still have 20, but if you call villain expects to split.  So YES, QQ is at the top of the bluff catching range. 

That's an awfully specific, and optimistic, read.