The fact that it is a shootout in which you win the table or die probably changes things in a way I don’t have the experience to analyze never having played a shootout before. I would think being aggressive is necessary to get all of the table’s chips. Waiting for monsters preflop and folding everything else doesn’t seem like the +EV approach.

Given the fact that you say villain is a tough player, I would think that means he has opened up his game somewhat wide to win chips others won’t win.

You check postflop with a pair of aces, terrible kicker. I think an argument can be made for a check or a raise. A check makes sense because you have top pair but a terrible kicker. No need to inflate the pot too much. A continuation bet makes sense with almost anything if you think villain will fold profitably for you.

Villain bets postflop, you call. I have no problem with the call. He could be betting anything since you showed weakness after the flop. You have showdown value so a 600 chip call seems fine.

The turn brings one straight possibility, no flushes. You still have showdown value with top pair, poor kicker. The fact that villain bets pot is pretty polarizing. You are either way ahead or way behind. You say that you believe that villain does not view you as a tough player. I think this awareness on your part of your image in the eyes of your opponent is important. If he thinks you are not a tough player, a pot-sized bet feels like a bluff to scare you away from what may well be way ahead of him. If he has you beat I would think he bets for value rather than pot. I think this may be a call.

Now, if villain thought you were a tough player, his pot-sized bet looks very different. In that case his overbet is meant to look weak/bluffy in an attempt to get you to call with a worse hand. It’s an I know what you know what I know leveling. Against a strong player this bet would actually look strong to me and I would think it would be a fold on your part.

As you have described it, I think he is bluffing.

3for3 said
I might be using fuzzy logic, but here goes anyway:

As played (perhaps I was supposed to just go with this hand; top pair; SPR 3.2)…but when we get to the river, we clearly have a bluff catcher.  

If my opponent is bluffing optimally, we are indifferent to calling/folding, except when we can add/subtract hands due to blockers.  Specifically, having a heart (or 2) in my hand would reduce bluffs in my opponents range.  Having a Jack would be great; reduces his KJ/J9 combos.   Having a 9 would be a mixture of good/bad; it reduces his J9 (good) but also reduces 97(missed straight).  Having a 7 would be bad, only reduces his 97…I guess the worst card to hold would be 7H.  

As to my actual hand, I do have a blocker to Aces up, and no blockers to any of the straights and flushes.  This makes my hand better to bluff catch than, say KK.

 

rpoker:  I don’t think one should just go with the ‘I think he is bluffing/value betting’.  Tough players will have some of both.    

I concur with your comment that you can’t just say he is bluffing/value betting. Constructing his ranges on every street is much more important. My point is that I think on the ranges of hands I would put him on throughout the hand, I think there are more bluffs than made hands that beat you that would bomb the river the way he did. I’m not saying I know he is bluffing. He absolutely could have it. I am saying his story seems suspicious. I think given the line he has taken combined with my range construction I think it is more +EV to call than fold. As played, do you disagree? In other words, do you feel his range combined with the run out results it being a fold for you on the river?

One other question, how did the fact that you have to win the table to move on enter into your thinking on his river bet? If you think it is 50-50 that he has you beat how does the win the table or die dynamic affect your decision? Does the need to win all of the chips make you more or less likely to want to call? What about 40-60 or 60-40? I guess I am asking, what percentage of his range that beats you does it have to be for you to call?

What did villain end up having?