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Blind vs Blind - up against SB jam.
tatty
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August 21, 2021 - 11:42 am
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Hi all

I recently noticed a common trend on my exit from MTT,… it always seems to be in a blind vs blind or blind vs button situation.  After the hand I usually feel like I made the correct decision and just got unlucky, but as quite often this happens in the money I am wondering if I should be assessing these spots a little differently and maybe not putting my tournament life on the line.  Last night was a typical situation;

$3 Online NL Hold’Em MTT (750 players), money bubble burst around 160 players I think, at this stage there are only 41 players left so well in to the money.

This particular hand I start with 20BB in the BB holding pocket 5’s, action folds round to the SB who has 20.5 BB (slightly more than me).  SB jams all-in.  This player I read as fairly competent and straightforward, maybe on the tighter side with VPIP of 17%.  I have been getting a good run of cards and raising quite a lot, so whilst my VPIP is only 19% I feel like my image to the other players may be that I am opening quite wide.

As I perceive the villain to be competent I believe he is probably making this move with any Ax, Kx, Qx, TT-22 pair (assume he would not jam with AA-JJ), but most likely scenario I feel is two over cards, one probably an A, in my mind at the time I saw this as a 50/50 flip, I was getting short and was not looking to ladder, I am targeting top 3, so thought this was an ok spot to take a risk.

I make the call and the run out comes 9,2,J rainbow, turn is an A and river a 9.  Villain shows A4 off and takes it down with 2 pair A’s and 9’s vs my 2 pair 9’s and 5’s.

After the hand I crunch the numbers and see with our exact hands I was a 70% favourite pre-flop and my cards vs his range I am still like a circa 55% favourite.  Am I right to think I made the right call, and in same situation I should call again?  I am aware of the concept of ICM, but have no idea how I would apply it and maybe that would indicate a fold…?

The Riceman
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August 22, 2021 - 2:27 am
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hello. It was totally the right call. Without checking my guess if you ran it thru a Nash calculator is that at Cev it’s worth at least 3% of the prize pool. You say it’s ITM so I guess if there’s a big pay jump coming up you could pass. [edit: Under ICM it’s usually a fold, depending on stack distribution…not sure why I wrote before it’s a call under ICM]. ICM spots are final table or other situations where there is significant pay jumps. Its a whole huge separate part of the game where different dynamics come in to play depending on whether you are a large stack, a medium, or a small stack. Generally, the large stack should be playing a wider range than normal in order to abuse the ICM dynamic at the final table, forcing smaller stacks to fold more than usual to ensure they ladder up the pay scale. Medium stacks should be plating conservatively, hoping the small stacks bust. Small stacks generally play a normal Cev game, they have the least to lose from the ICM dynamic. Using your 55 example therefore, if you were a medium stack 55 is a definite fold, but as a small stack it’s a definite call.

Really Vpip here is not too useful and you should IMO have a HUD for SB open limp/ SB steal%…but even if I had a large sample and he’s opening really tight from SB I’m still snap calling. 22 is also a snap. Play around with ranges using an ICM calculator.. which I expect you have. If you haven’t, and money is an issue, then you should prioritise an ICM calculator over TPE membership until you’re up to speed with push/fold.

tatty
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August 26, 2021 - 4:56 am
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Thanks Riceman.

After a quick google I see there are lots of free ICM tools available but these all seem to be focused on final tables, similar to what you mention in your reply.

When you say investing my resources into an ICM calculator, do you mean a solver?

If you can share an example/recommendation of what you are referring to that would be much appreciated.

The Riceman
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September 10, 2021 - 4:14 pm
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Hello again. Not sure about free ICM tools, I literally can’t help you there at all. In fact you probably know more than I about them. Yes, a solver. But not a multi street solver such as CREV or pioSOLVER. These are very expensive and deal with post flop scenarios, as well as pre flop. Pre flop shove/call/3bet calculators are less expensive. I’m thinking programs such as SNGWizard, Holdem Resources Calculator…ICMizer. They are all solvers. Even PokerSnowie is a solver. Heck…even Poker Equity Calculator on my phone is a solver, don’t get intimidated by the word. High stakes pros talk in hushed tones about their “solver solutions”, and us mere mortals shiver and blush as the software and their analysis seems light years ahead of where we are.

ICM calculator is not a great word for what these things do. in fact it is a misnomer. What they should really be called is Nash calculators. John Nash was a mathematician who came up with game theory. I’m not sure he had a direct interest in poker, (game theory has a wide and varied application), but we use Nash ranges in poker as a baseline, game theoretically optimal solution to any particular situation. In other words and in plain English, Nash gives us the correct line to take in a hand pre-flop, based on mathematics. You can’t argue with it, it is objective fact. When you are looking at a Nash solution, you are looking at a small part of the very solution to the game. (It is only correct to move away from Nash ranges in order to exploit an opponent who is also not playing Nash).

In poker tournaments we have two areas of the game where Nash ranges are different. The first is ChipEV, or cEV. In this stage of the tournament (the most of it), we are playing as though it is a cash game…straightforward poker, uninfluenced by any imminent pay jump. (You can Google the exact definitions of cEV and $EV yourself). When pay jumps start coming in to play in the tournament, our Nash ranges change. For instance, what was a profitable call under cEV may become a costly mathematical error when you risk losing a lot of money by getting busted just before a significant pay jump. ICM is also known as DollarEV, or $EV.

What’s the point? Just that ICM calculators do give you “correct” solutions under $EV. But the vast majority of the game is under cEV, and the calculator will give you “correct” solutions here too. (When you are inputting a hand in to an ICM calculator, you must be careful to tell the machine which equity model you need: $EV or cEV. $EV calculations are especially important on the final table.) 

I use Holdem Resources Calculator personally, which I love, but I hear the UI of ICMizer2 is more user friendly. 

Sorry if I babbled on…I just drank a whiskey and coke because I had QQ beaten by 99 on the exact Final Table bubble in a hyper…there I had to get that bad beat story off my chest over here! I hope what I have written is correct, but I’m just one step up from a recreational player, so if I got anything wrong anyone feel free to put me right please…

justfourfun
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September 28, 2021 - 9:11 am
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Early levels of MTTs is like watching a bunch of drunken sailors carelessly throwing money around.  As the blinds increase and the fish go home play will tighten and the Button versus blinds and blinds versus blinds situations become the most important dynamic at the table.  With this in mind it is important to study the two players to your left and right most closely.

in your post you state: “I have been getting a good run of cards and raising quite a lot, so whilst my VPIP is only 19% I feel like my image to the other players may be that I am opening quite wide.” The fact that you took the time to write this in your post leads me to believe that this was something you considered in this hand. Your image is irrelevant here.  There is a lot to consider when making important decisions so avoid thinking about irrelevant factors.

Then you state: “As I perceive the villain to be competent I believe he is probably making this move with any Ax, Kx, Qx, TT-22 pair (assume he would not jam with AA-JJ), but most likely scenario I feel is two over cards, one probably an A, in my mind at the time I saw this as a 50/50 flip, I was getting short and was not looking to ladder, I am targeting top 3, so thought this was an ok spot to take a risk.”

OK well… a lot going on in that discussion.  I really like the start of this part where you are ranging the Villian.  I think your range is somewhat accurate.  But, “Qx”… I would not put Q2 – Q7 in Vs range here.  I would put JT and J9 in his range and maybe 9 T. I would also put AA-JJ in his range.  You thinking in this spot about the fact that V would not jam with those premium hands is a problem.  V’s range here is so wide that you should not be taking the time to dissect AA-JJ.

When you state the most likely scenario is two overcards I agree but… there is also a substantial probability of A2-A5, K2-K5, and 22-44.  Combining those hands with the fact that two red fives are 55%/45% against a black offsuit AK makes this an easy straightforward call. if you start the hand with 20 BB (assuming a BB ante) you have 2 BB in the pot when this decision comes to you.  10% of your stack is in the pot.  Combining your 2 BB with that part of V’s jam which is a call of your 2 BB is 4BB.  You are risking then 18BB to win 40BB.  From a pure odds standpoint any hand that is 45% probability to win would be indifferent to making a call in this spot.

The discussion of ICM and solvers and calculators is misplaced as this decision in not close.  To win MTTs you have to call in this spot.

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