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Blind vs. blind in 15k KO on FTP - ITM

Robjk16

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Guests

March 2, 2011 - 2:10 pm

Hey guys,

This hand came up after we were in the money in the 15K KO on FTP last night 88 left

Full Tilt Poker $15,000 KO Guarantee No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t500/t1000 Blinds + t125 – 5 players

TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

tysco1 (CO): BB = 13.5, t13489

johann123 (BTN): BB = 21.2, t21175

rjk16 (SB): BB = 17.5, t17500

eee555 (BB): BB = 99.9, t99946

BigMich08 (UTG): BB = 21.5, t21514

Pre Flop: (t2125) rjk16 is SB with 9 of spades J of hearts

3 folds, rjk16?

Stack if I fold: 16750

Stack if I shove and he folds: 19125

Stack if I shove he calls and I win: 34750

Stack if I shove and he wins: 0

I tried to use the calculation in the Theory Video on reviewing your own HH, and tried to plug everything into Poker stove. My range for his call was:

22+,A3s+,K9s+,Q9s+,JTs,A7o+,KTo+,QJo,Q9o – about 23%. If that is his range, I have around 35% equity.

So my calculation was:

.77=% he will fold(19125 = my stack if he does) + .23=% he will call(.35 = my equity in pot(34750 = my stack if I win)

14726.25 + 2797.37

EV of a shove = 17523.62

EV of a fold = 16750

This is a lot to ask, but I've never done this kind of work before, so I am asking if you guys could check this. Am I calculating this right? Am I leaving anything out? What would you have done in this situation? Thanks in advance for taking a look.

Rob

warriordefense08

Guest

Guests

March 3, 2011 - 9:08 am

I'm not too sure about the calculations and if yours are right. But, I do kno it being 5 handed I am going to shove this 100% of the time. I think you are far enough from the final table bubble and already in the money, ship it in my opinion!

goroyalblue

Guest

Guests

March 3, 2011 - 8:38 pm

ship it, get called. Hit str8 on the turn. Easy game.

praetor

Madness

High Stakes Mario Kart Propping

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Forum Posts: 1033

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June 22, 2010

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March 3, 2011 - 10:35 pm

Given his stack size he will probably call you, this is a flip at best. If I am going to shove on the superstack, I would like a little more equity, these guys always call in KOs with that much of a stack.

"Your either in Sheen's Korner or your with the trolls."

Chip

Guest

Guests

March 3, 2011 - 11:34 pm

I'd def tighten up that calling range, we have 17 bigs, no way is he calling off w JT/A7 etc.

I have avg villain 77+,A9s+,ATo+,KQ at 10% of hands

Pot	2125
Your Stack	16875
BB	1000
Effective Stack	16875
Single Call Range	10.00%
Left to Act	1
Call %	10.00%
Fold %	90.00%
Win %	31.00%
Lose %	69.00%

If we shove and get folds	19000
If we shove, get called and win	35875
If we shove, get called and lose	0

EV of a Shove	18212
EV of a Fold	16875
Net EV of a Shove	1337

EV as % of Stack	7.92%
EV as # of BBs	1.34
Risk of Busto	6.90%

stretch it to 12%

66+,A9s+,KTs+,QJs,ATo+,KJo+

Pot	2125
Your Stack	16875
BB	1000
Effective Stack	16875
Single Call Range	12.00%
Left to Act	1
Call %	12.00%
Fold %	88.00%
Win %	31.20%
Lose %	68.80%

If we shove and get folds	19000
If we shove, get called and win	35875
If we shove, get called and lose	0

EV of a Shove	18063
EV of a Fold	16875
Net EV of a Shove	1188

EV as % of Stack	7.04%
EV as # of BBs	1.19
Risk of Busto	8.26%

spreadsheets dont copy and past well, but u see the bottom line, this is a very profitable/standard shove, one opponent to get this through increases play equity significantly

Pot	2125
Your Stack	16875
BB	1000
Effective Stack	17375
Single Call Range	10.00%
Left to Act	1
Call %	10.00%
Fold %	90.00%
Win %	32.00%
Lose %	68.00%

If we shove and get folds	19000
If we shove, get called and win	36875
If we shove, get called and lose	-500

EV of a Shove	18280
EV of a Fold	17375
Net EV of a Shove	905

EV as % of Stack	5.36%
EV as # of BBs	0.91
Risk of Busto	6.80%

dvbronco

Guest

Guests

March 4, 2011 - 1:47 am

Most likely a shove but with those stack sizes table/player dynamics come into play….if the BB is any what tight jam 100% if he is spewy probably fold!!

Robjk16

Guest

Guests

March 4, 2011 - 9:23 pm

Thanks for the responses guys. I found the spreadsheet on the math video.

I shoved. He called with As, and I lost. It was easy to second guess myself when he turned over As, but I know that is just being results oriented.

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