I would be careful about making plays purely on 3b stats this early in tournaments. It looks too early for you to have 121 hands from this tournament specifically so the 3b stat could be based on later play in other tournaments. Unless I had seen the guy show down a weak 3bet from some early hands I would treat the 11% with caution plus the sample is very small.

So, preflop what do you range the guy on? Personally, I would range him more towards value hands out of the small blind than preflop bluffs as people generally don't get too out of line out of position this early when deep stacked. Range probably is like AT+, KJ+, 99+ etc. I don't think many guys are 3b bluffing QJ, TJ, 78s etc and small-mid pairs probably set mine. I'm not sure I would call preflop here versus the 3bet as we are dominated a lot but if you really feel he is aggro early then it is probably alright.

Flop basically whiffs you completely but could easily hit his value range. His bet is also quite strong on the flop and suggests a value hand to me more than air but again if you believe in your read strongly then floating may be ok. Again, I would cut my losses here.

Turn he bets out 70% pot again which is more and more looking like the guy has a real hand here. Basically he is committing himself to the pot with this bet and as far as he is concerned that T changes nothing. I cannot see any villain folding to a turn shove in this spot having shown as much strength as villain has throughout the hand. He is getting 3/1 odds here and I think you are relying on him having air over 50% of the time to make this profitable. I simply cannot see him folding that often so as played I still fold the turn to that sizing as I strongly feel we are just gambling.

I think in situations like these where you don't believe a players 3b preflop and call behind with weak speculative hands then you have to assess their strength postflop through sizing rather than timing of bets etc. Also, the quick bet could be AK. Its quite easy for villain to already have decided to fire 2/3 pot if a K comes down and do that quickly. It is not necessarily a cbet with air.

All in all, I'm happy to let the hand go preflop, on flop and on turn as played due to villain's sizing through the hand. Be interesting to see what others feel about it.

There are a couple of issues here:

1) From my experience, this bet is not super polarized as it can definitely be a value bet with a hand like AK, KQ or maybe 88-QQ. Its only a bet of around 60% of the pot which seems like a reasonable sizing with a good hand but maybe not a monster. To be fair it can be air but I would say definitely not as clear cut as you suggest.

2) Its expensive for you to float here. You still have no hand and are basically hoping he has nothing so you can presumably bet the turn 100% if he checks. He has to be betting with air and giving up a ton for this move to be profitable.

3) He has 3b you twice before. As far as gameflow is concerned, the more often someone has 3b you in the same spot, the more likely it is they have it next time. They will expect you to play back at them some time.

4) The turn bet shows a lot of strength to me and removes your fold equity to make a play (in my opinion). The biggest problem you have here is that you have nothing more than a draw and his bet is now forcing you to play for all your chips rather than vice versa and you have little fold equity.

Regardless of the result here I think this is a very high variance play which may or may not have succeeded on this occasion but will not succeed often enough to be profitable. I'm interested to see the result soon though although I am guessing villain folded

Congratulations on your read of this villain

One thing to note here out of your analysis. You suggest villain would have to fold 25% of the time for the play to be profitable yet he still called with A9o (so no draw + no pair) which makes me think getting people to fold 25% is optimistic. If villain is not folding A9o then I suspect you are getting a call virtually 100%.

I will say though that I do like your line against an aggro villain that takes a more standard line with cbets and second barrel sizing. If he bets say 200 on flop and then 460 or so on turn then I think this line could succeed a lot more when you have this read as you will then have some fold equity. It is still a risky and high variance play but fold equity does give you a higher risk v reward return.