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August 24, 2015
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No Limit Hold’em Tournament T2,400/T4,800
Buy-in: $100+$9 USD Hold’em No Limit
PokerStars
8 players
Formatted by pokercopilot.com – Mac OS X hand history analysis and tracking
Stacks:
UTG – UTG (T74,963)
UTG+1 – UTG+1 (T165,553)
MP – MP (T136,698)
MP2 – MP2 (T565,971)
CO – CO (T223,016)
BTN – Hero (T162,666)
SB – SB (T147,689)
BB – BB (T231,237)
Preflop: (T12,000, 8 players) Hero is BTN with 7♥ A♥
5 folds, Hero raises to T9,600, SB raises to T22,996, 1 fold, Hero calls T13,396
Flop: 8♣ 6♥ 9♠ (T55,592, 2 players – Hero: T139,070, SB: T124,093)
SB bets T29,116, hero???
Just got moved to this table so only info on villain i have is that he is a very good reg. Do we shove (or raise and to what size) or call? Is preflop ok? hit me with thoughts 
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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Villain made it pretty small preflop so I imagine calling is okay. It’s possible shoving is profitable too but it depends on your table image etc as to how wide he’s likely to 3-bet you.
If we expect villain to c-bet maybe 70%+ of his 3-betting range on this board (fairly likely) then I think shoving flop is fine. We have BDFD and the overcard, plus a blocker to AA. It’s a relatively good board for our range and villain is unlikely to 3-bet too many hands that hit it, so I think we get a fair number of folds, plus by shoving our draws here we give ourselves protection for when we flop a set or 2pair and don’t want to have to just peel when there’s so many bad turns.
You can’t really make a smaller sizing than a shove here since 58k is almost half of effective stacks, and peeling is really awkward since villain can barrel us off our equity on some turns and is very unlikely to give us any value when we hit a straight or turn an Ace. I think shoving flop is fine.
September 29, 2012
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I think I would lean to shipping this preflop. This is in the range of hands I like to 4bet light with when the 3bet can be wide.
If the effective stacks were deeper, I think calling becomes more of an option, but I don’t think calling 3bets with 35BBs stacks with marginal/speculative hands like this is going to be profitable overall, unless you have postflop reads on specific weaknesses on your opponent.
As played, I think this is a fine hand to shove the flop with. If you get called, you still have outs. Even against AA, you have 35% equity and that is your worst case scenario. If he has KK, he will be really unhappy to have to call, and will quite often talk himself into a fold.
August 24, 2015
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Since this was the first hand at this table and the only info i have on villain (sharscope) is that he is a very good reg i went for the flat pre. His 3b was so small and i feel a lot of players generally makes smaller 3b OOP with more nutted hands that wants a call or a 4b. I might be wrong although the trend is more 2.5-3x cause very few people fold to a small 3b in position when getting 3b from the blinds when opening from LP. Also given that i have position and getting a good price i assume it is a profitable call. I think a solid reg wont think twice about calling with TT-AA on OTF if i jam probably not A9, K9 either. Seems like the Jam OTF vs unknown player seems like the best option here. Folding out 2 overcards by jamming has a lot of value as well as it would be a disaster if i call and he hits OTT. 
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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jjpregler said
I think I would lean to shipping this preflop. This is in the range of hands I like to 4bet light with when the 3bet can be wide.If the effective stacks were deeper, I think calling becomes more of an option, but I don’t think calling 3bets with 35BBs stacks with marginal/speculative hands like this is going to be profitable overall, unless you have postflop reads on specific weaknesses on your opponent.
As played, I think this is a fine hand to shove the flop with. If you get called, you still have outs. Even against AA, you have 35% equity and that is your worst case scenario. If he has KK, he will be really unhappy to have to call, and will quite often talk himself into a fold.
Shoving preflop over the 3-bet is most likely profitable, but given the odds we’re getting I think we have to be very confident in its profitability to be able to suggest it’s better than calling.
It’s also worth noting that our button opening range in this spot is likely very wide, and if we’re reducing our options versus 3-bets to mostly 4-bet shoving or folding, we’re likely to be very open to exploitation from good regs in the blinds like this guy. Let’s say we’re opening 40% of hands, 4-bet shoving 10% and flatting a very specific 5% range – in broad terms, this is super exploitable since we’re now defending our open-raising range less than 50% of the time versus a 3-bet, and villain can 3-bet to the sizing he chose with absolutely anything he wants. A7s is a reasonable hand to call the 3-bet with and we need to be calling the 3-bet a reasonable amount of the time (since our opening range is so wide to begin with), so I think calling is good. Shoving is likely okay too though, if you’re really worried about playing postflop versus this guy.
Side note – villain is never, ever, ever talking himself into folding KK when we shove this flop. He’s not folding TT+ at all, since we’re likely shoving a lot of our 66-99 preflop and we can only have a few combos of 98s. The profitability of getting it in on the flop comes from our raw equity, and our fold equity versus villain’s 3-bet bluffs that miss this flop completely.
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