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June 11, 2012
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No Limit Holdem Tournament PokerStars
9 Players
$75+$7
Blinds 250/500 9
UTG Hero 12,225
UTG+1 Gaelito23 17,969
MP1 chrisottawa 2,704
MP2 NightG214 11,040
MP3 sksjohny 3,529
CO Tedster2015 22,517
D AptiVova 21,374
SB Leitnant 16,622
BB LorTz 18,759
9 1,290 Hero is UTG K J
Hero raises to 1,105, 7 folds, LorTz calls 605
2 3,000 Q 9 2
LorTz checks, Hero bets 1,355, LorTz calls 1,355
2 5,710 5
LorTz checks, Hero bets 2,455, LorTz calls 2,455
River
2 10,620 K
LorTz checks, Hero ???
hero is 24/19 23% EP raise, Cbet 70%, turn Cbet 50%
villain is 26/15 with fold to Cbet 50% flop, 0% turn
shove river for 75% pot size?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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I wouldn’t, considering you raised UTG. Hard to see V calling with a lot of worse hands, and I do think better can be in his range.
Look at what happened with the sizing here: you bet roughly 40% pot on flop and turn, and now find yourself left with 75% pot on river. Better to structure that a little differently so that your bets are closer in size. With his exact hand and run out, I might even bet 2K on flop and then jam turn. But I definitely think flop should be larger one way or the other. I mean, wouldn’t you want to bet more here with AA/KK/99 (you should)?
June 11, 2012
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interesting point.
Does a bigger bet not make villains continuation range stronger? I think on such a dry board i am betting this much with about my entire range. I agree it could be bit bigger around 55% to make the difference not as big between turn and river.
If you bet bigger on the flop are you doing this with a split range or with your entire range?
splitting the range in a way:
bet big flop to shove turn: Top Pair and some sets, balance with hands that can pick up lots of equity on turn that might be good enough to even bet/call (KJhh)
bet small flop on turn: sets (QQ,99, AA(0.5),KK, balance that with some bet/fold hands that have some SD value if challed and then checked down but might also be just bet/fold if villain crai. Maybe PP would be good here.
what do you think?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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You’re right that a larger bet narrows your opponent’s range. For your potentially one-and-done bluffs (like this one, when you don’t improve on turn) that’s a good thing. For your value hands, it isn’t necessarily, but putting more money into the pot is.
I don’t think you should be c-betting your entire range here, which is part of the case for having a larger bet size: you should be polarized when you bet anyway. I mean, betting 88 or 87s would be pretty bad I think.
As for the split you propose, it depends on what you mean by “bet small”. If you have in mind something like what you did here, you still run into the problem of having some hands in that range that want to play a larger pot and up having to do it with a river shove that is not too hard to play against. Why do you want to have a bet small range? What are the hands that you want to bet but don’t think you can bet profitably for, say, 1750?
June 11, 2012
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Foucault said
I don’t think you should be c-betting your entire range here, which is part of the case for having a larger bet size: you should be polarized when you bet anyway. I mean, betting 88 or 87s would be pretty bad I think.
well my preflop range looks something like 66+,Axs+,A9o+,KTo+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,T9s
with 25-40BB i prefer having a range which is leaning more towards blocker instead of postflop playability. Thats why i put rather A9o in there instead of 87s.
so I would Cbet here for vlaue: TP+ wo QQ. i think stacks are shallow enough that i can check back QQ with the intention to getting it in in two bets on turn and river.
As bluffs i would bet all draws, most of the nut backdoor flush draws other than AKs. I think AKs has enough showdown value to work as a good bluff catcher on alter streets.
JJ and TT i am torned. Betting them i dont think we fold out many hands that are better but they are vulnerable enough to overcards that betting might be ok.
In this particular case i liek betting TT,JJ on the flop and river as it blocks the straighs.
does this make sense?
June 11, 2012
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i was curious about this so i run it in pio
i gave BB around a 40% defending range. Once with nuts discounted once with them in a full count.
For flop i gave the options to bet 25%, 33%, 65% and 100%
it turned out that it only bets 25% or 33% and not more. So i redid the tree and gave 30% PSB.
Now pio wanted to bet 100% of the range. I assume this is because we have a significant range advantage on this board.
i did the same for turn and it ended at something around 55% PSB. Rerunning the tree with this options the preferred line with KJhh on this run out was bet 25%, bet 55%, shove river. pio also said villain should call QJo otr.
comments on that?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Interesting, thanks for doing this. What % of pot is the river shove? For better or worse, I think there are a lot of opponents who prefer check-shoving rather than check-call-checking on the turn when there is only like 50% pot or something left in stacks. That might overall be good for us (gives a lot of leverage to our weak bluffs), but isn’t so good when we have big draws like this one, where we want to be the ones making the last bet.
Also, I know I’m the one who brought up flop sizing in the first place, but from some work I’ve seen on GTORB, c-bet sizing actually doesn’t tend to have a big effect on EV as long as you choose the right range. So, you should be more polarized when you bet larger, but a bigger/more polarized c-bet won’t be much better or worse than a smaller, merged one.
June 11, 2012
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i will double check what the river shove is.
good point about the turn.
i know the thing about similar EV. I assume this comes because we are starting to bet with fewer % of our range but with a more polarized one. So the same our value hands gain in value the bluffs loose.
i think one problem of the small sizing might lead to villain starting to c/r more and then we need to defend more of our weak/big betting range
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