March 21, 2013
I think I'd fold it and rather be in the tournament then busting against the range I expect he has.
His pfr isn't that crazy (28%) and I don't see him jamming with 99-22 on this flop. he might be doing this with AK-AQ, TT-KK, Qx (of which most will be pretty decent Qx imo as he has such a wide limping range where he'd limp his weak Qx hands) and any flushdraw .
Basically against this range I think it's not worth flipping and I'd sigh/fold.
I expect AA to be out of his range as he'll 4b it but more likely I expect him to limp reraise AA here;)
just curious…If you 3b for value/isolation I'd happily bet flop as I expect him to call all his lower pairs and only raise a big hand/draw. Especially since flop containst I'm even more inclined to bet, I would hate it when another club or A/K comes off on the turn if villain checks, not only would it kill our action but if villain becomes aggressive or stationy we'd be pretty bad shape.
If I expect him to call the 3bet, I would make it smaller maybe 240-275. I would definitely bet the flop for value.
As played, this is how I would range him…
I think he most likely has a flush draw which you have anywhere from 50-60% equity against if we assume he has at least one over card.
He has some Qx that beat you but there aren't many combos of these and I dont think he would play them this way.
I dont think he has overpairs, sets, or two pairs because he would either get it in pre or play a little lower post for value especially since you checked the flop.
There are also fringe factors like misclicks (more likely if his bet was 3866) and being leveled by hands like JJ or KK+(less likely if he is bad).
So basically you have to decide if 50-60% equity is enough for you to get it in at this level vs this field. That is a personal decision. I could go either way depending on my view of the field, my bankroll, and how many other tables I was on at the time.
June 1, 2012
We are not quiet at the top of our range here so think we can fold but its close. I think KQ+ is where folding becomes expoitable and i would not be folding that part of my range to this player type. As for his range it looks like flush draws, KQ,AQ,4,6 which we have about 50% equity against.
July 27, 2013
To me this looks like a pot ods decision.
Considering his range to be any pair, any flushdraw and most 7X hand we have an equity of 65% on this flop. Since we have to call 3k to win 6k its 50% odds on a 63% equity, so it looks like a call to me, am I right?
But still since it´s so early en the tournemant I guess that in game I would fold.
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