February 3, 2013
November 19, 2012
Hmm tough. Gut says to just call such a nit..
shoving obv never gets better hands to fold, but im trying to decide if worse hands call..
also depends on his 3bet pre stats, maybe he's so nitty that he only 3bets AA or something ridiculous. He's flatting all pockets 2's through 10's, I doubt a nit like this is getting aggro on that flop with 2 overs or the 2nd nut flush draw.
So the only worse hand I can think of him calling with is a badly played KK, which is a verry questionable part of his range anyway, so *sigh* call for me.
August 23, 2012
You said he is running 16/5, but I don't know how useful those stats are for postflop play. What is the sample size? What is his flop XR%? If you don't have a big enough sample size for those stats then I don't think we should draw the conclusion that he is a nit and only XRs sets on this flop. You might know he is a nit from other information like how he has played previous hands and if he has said anything in chat.
As played, it's an easy shove over an aggressive player and close vs a nit. If you aren't sure on your reads then I definitely ship over the river bet . You CB small on a board that doesn't hit your UTG range but hits his defending range. A lot of players will read your sizing as weak and XR with a wider range. That should add more flushes in his range that we can get value from.
February 3, 2013
October 6, 2010
we are quite likely ahead of his range here, which includes a ton of flushes, so as you have mentioned its a pretty obvious call. i think the best way to work out whether to raise is what sort of hands you beat call if off if you shove. i think the king flush might call it off, but i doubt any lower flushes do. we can at least discount them.
so that leaves K9, KT, KJcc so 3 combos there, 4 combos of 99, 4 of 55, 1 of 44.
so his calling-a-shove range has us pretty crushed, so i think its a pretty clear call.
sorry if this is long winded, its a break in the Ashes Cricket and i have nothing better to do haha
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