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big162 nut flush vs nit paired board, line check
florianm1
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July 8, 2013 - 6:27 pm
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hey guys,

 

villain is running 16/5 whats your line?

 

shove river?

 

Poker Stars $150+$12 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t350/t700 Blinds + t85 – 9 players – View hand 2254964
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

Obär89 (MP2): BB = 26.3, t18413
WinkyBinky (CO): BB = 19.2, t13451
DAVID_G77 (BTN): BB = 41.0, t28665
THE L0CKD0WN (SB): BB = 6.4, t4475
miguel18 (BB): BB = 38.3, t26778
Hero (UTG): BB = 62.1, t43451
cheryl2711 (UTG+1): BB = 21.4, t15014
DwnByDaBrdge (UTG+2): BB = 16.7, t11700
Weird.Fear (MP1): BB = 21.1, t14748

Pre Flop: (t1815) Hero is UTG with A of clubs 3 of clubs
Hero raises to t1400, 7 folds, miguel18 calls t700

Flop: (t3915) 9 of hearts 4 of clubs 5 of clubs (2 players)
miguel18 checks, Hero bets t1345, miguel18 raises to t3128, Hero calls t1783

Turn: (t10171) Q of clubs (2 players)
miguel18 bets t4271, Hero calls t4271

River: (t18713) 4 of diamonds (2 players)
miguel18 bets t7859, Hero ???

p1kZoR
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July 8, 2013 - 9:57 pm
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dont see any chance folding here. Holding the nutflush, and invested 60% already until river. A fold here would be pretty tight, not sure if its profitable since he could have a lower flush here

florianm1
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July 9, 2013 - 6:00 am
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p1kZoR said:

dont see any chance folding here. Holding the nutflush, and invested 60% already until river. A fold here would be pretty tight, not sure if its profitable since he could have a lower flush here

agree not folding? but jsut callin or shoving?

NBG
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July 9, 2013 - 6:43 am
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Hmm tough. Gut says to just call such a nit..

 

shoving obv never gets better hands to fold, but im trying to decide if worse hands call..

also depends on his 3bet pre stats, maybe he's so nitty that he only 3bets AA or something ridiculous. He's flatting all pockets 2's through 10's, I doubt a nit like this is getting aggro on that flop with 2 overs or the 2nd nut flush draw. 

 

So the only worse hand I can think of him calling with is a badly played KK, which is a verry questionable part of his range anyway, so *sigh* call for me.

danrose29
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July 9, 2013 - 9:04 am
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i dont see how you can fold here like someone said youve invested so many chips and yes maybe it feels like he may have fh especially if hes nit but i would call here everytime

florianm1
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July 9, 2013 - 11:44 am
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danrose29 said:

i dont see how you can fold here like someone said youve invested so many chips and yes maybe it feels like he may have fh especially if hes nit but i would call here everytime

as stated previously. Def not folding. 

 

but the question is to shove or just call

packallama
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July 9, 2013 - 12:38 pm
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You said he is running 16/5, but I don't know how useful those stats are for postflop play. What is the sample size? What is his flop XR%? If you don't have a big enough sample size for those stats then I don't think we should draw the conclusion that he is a nit and only XRs sets on this flop. You might know he is a nit from other information like how he has played previous hands and if he has said anything in chat. 

As played, it's an easy shove over an aggressive player and close vs a nit. If you aren't sure on your reads then I definitely ship over the river bet . You CB small on a board that doesn't hit your UTG range but hits his defending range. A lot of players will read your sizing as weak and XR with a wider range. That should add more flushes in his range that we can get value from. 

p1kZoR
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July 9, 2013 - 1:36 pm
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but the question is to shove or just call

 

Call is fine, dont think he gonna call very often with worse hands.

bennymacca
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July 10, 2013 - 8:32 am
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we are quite likely ahead of his range here, which includes a ton of flushes, so as you have mentioned its a pretty obvious call. i think the best way to work out whether to raise is what sort of hands you beat call if off if you shove. i think the king flush might call it off, but i doubt any lower flushes do. we can at least discount them. 

 

so that leaves K9, KT, KJcc so 3 combos there, 4 combos of 99, 4 of 55, 1 of 44. 

 

so his calling-a-shove range has us pretty crushed, so i think its a pretty clear call. 

 

sorry if this is long winded, its a break in the Ashes Cricket and i have nothing better to do haha

florianm1
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July 10, 2013 - 5:16 pm
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bennymacca said:

 

sorry if this is long winded, its a break in the Ashes Cricket and i have nothing better to do haha

Aussies and their circket 😀 have a friend travelling to UK to watch that and the last month he basically learned his GF which players she has to hate heartheartheartheartheartheartheartheartheart

 

well back to poker.

 

I just called as i did not like the paired board and tought he might have more FHs than weaker flushes.

 

he tablet KJcc for second nut flush. was bit shocked that he played it fast IP

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