hello TPE nation,

this very interesting spot came up in the big162 on stars.  we are 19 left with villain the being the CL at the moment and me being 3rd in chips. I was pretty much the table captain and run over the table

hero stats: 30/27 with 18.5% 3bet overall with 28% from the BTN. earlier i stacked a guy with 54s calling a 3bet IP and flopping and osd+FD and getting there. in another hand i check/jammed the nut FD vs a fishy player and got there. So my image is def really agg but the hands that went to showdown were all reasonably played

villain stats: villain is 18/15 with 50% CO open if folded to him. he has 850games tracked with 172$ average buy in and a roi of -27%. so he seems to be a HSMTT loosing player. given his solid HUD stats he is probably playing to high for his skill set

preflop i think its standard. my plan is to gii vs him 46BB effective. because my image is not the best i make the 3bet slightly bigger. villain has yet shown to 4bet and his foldto3bet is only 33%. therefore a slightly bigger 3bet extracts bit more value. my range here is prob something allong this

AA-99,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-ATs,A5s-A2s,KQs-K8s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J8s,T8s-T7s,97s-96s,86s-85s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s

after my 3bet i think he is flatting with something like

TT-22,AJo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,T9o,98o,AJs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s,76s,65s (20.7%, 245combos given my blockers)

i assume that he would 4b/call with TT+, AQ+ vs me

Poker Stars $150+$12 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t1600/t3200 Blinds + t400 – 6 players – View hand 2279997
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): BB = 45.6, t145829
dass (SB): BB = 40.8, t130542
goolirpoker (BB): BB = 23.3, t74549
00psiedaisy (UTG): BB = 32.0, t102247
LaurisL91 (MP): BB = 55.8, t178672
WICKED617 (CO): BB = 60.2, t192582

Pre Flop: (t7200) Hero is BTN with A K
2 folds, WICKED617 raises to t6400, Hero raises to t14555, 2 folds, WICKED617 calls t8155

Flop: (t36310) 7 Q K (2 players)
WICKED617 checks, Hero bets t11115, WICKED617 calls t11115

flop hits his range only marginally. comparing the whole ranges i am an 57-43 favourite. i assume he c/r sets (77, and 2pair). the majority of his holdings are weak pairs and draws. so the point here is to bet to maximize the value. i think a smaller Cbet is appropriate here as there are also not many combo draws he has. Again these he would play faster i assume.

still i think the Cbet was bit to small. probably 14-16k would be better. whats your thinking?

also what you do with an SPR of 3.6 if he c/r  here?

the turn is the point where it gets interesting.

what do you think of his leading range?

if i look at flopzilla i dont really see much he is leading. other then backdoor FDs with a pair which we are crushing and completed flushes against we have the Ac as a back up.

here the Flopzilla screenshot: