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(5 votes) 
July 9, 2015
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117 players left. 108 ITM.
Villain is reg. He has seen me play tight at this table (65 hands).
I wouldnt open light in this spot. BTN and BB are big stacks.
What line would you prefer with QQ (and the rest of our range)
PokerStars Hand #138213938224: Tournament #1272222041, $100+$9 USD Hold’em No Limit – Level XVII (400/800) – 2015/07/18 21:54:24 CET [2015/07/18 15:54:24 ET]
Table ‘1272222041 28’ 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: queste (13901 in chips)
Seat 2: Econometrist (48018 in chips)
Seat 3: USoGotPwned (62192 in chips)
Seat 4: Mr Longhit (28668 in chips)
Seat 6: YossiK18 (5742 in chips)
Seat 7: Catukinho (18034 in chips)
Seat 8: DotComRicher (5562 in chips)
Seat 9: flipmm (42949 in chips)
queste: posts the ante 100
Econometrist: posts the ante 100
USoGotPwned: posts the ante 100
Mr Longhit: posts the ante 100
YossiK18: posts the ante 100
Catukinho: posts the ante 100
DotComRicher: posts the ante 100
flipmm: posts the ante 100
Econometrist: posts small blind 400
USoGotPwned: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mr Longhit [Qh Qs]
Mr Longhit: raises 864 to 1664
YossiK18: folds
Catukinho: calls 1664
DotComRicher: folds
flipmm: folds
queste: folds
Econometrist: folds
USoGotPwned: calls 864
*** FLOP *** [4c As 5c]
USoGotPwned: checks
Mr Longhit: checks
Catukinho: bets 2420
USoGotPwned: folds
Mr Longhit: calls 2420
*** TURN *** [4c As 5c] [Ah]
Mr Longhit: checks
Catukinho: bets 4680
Mr Longhit: calls 4680
*** RIVER *** [4c As 5c Ah] [Th]
Mr Longhit: checks
Catukinho: bets 9170 and is all-in
Mr Longhit: ???
February 20, 2015
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It reads like you're playing your hand face up. If you had an ace, you wouldn't have checked and called all three streets.
You still have 12 bigs if you call and lose. But I think he has a medium pocket pair. Unless it's 10s, you're home free with a call.
July 15, 2015
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As Joel says, when you check/call, your hand looks like exactly what it is.
As the EP raiser, you have a serious range advantage on this flop. Take advantage of this by betting. If you are opening a tight range from here, I think you can cbet close to 100% of your range on this board. Especially if you plan on calling 2 bets anyways, you might as well keep the pressure on by putting the bets in yourself. If you are raised, you can comfortably fold. By checking, you are basically handing over your range advantage without a fight. Just think, if you are betting, villain has to be worried even with hands as strong as AJ and AT. Once you start check/calling, he can treat these hands as the effective nuts (any A can be treated as such). If he is allowed to bet all his As for value, he can also sneak in plenty of bluffs as well. We are forced to basically guess if his range skews too much towards bluffs or value hands, which is always a bad place to be.
If I did decide to check/call the flop, I think I would just give up on the turn. This will preserve a healthy stack that can still steal, resteal, etc on the bubble.
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December 6, 2012
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joelshitshow said:
It reads like you're playing your hand face up. If you had an ace, you wouldn't have checked and called all three streets.
Why not? It seems like you're implying that Villain can bluff and value bet with abandon once you check, so why not check some Aces? You should have plenty in your opening range, even from UTG, so you can check the weakest ones and still have a robust betting range. What, really, is accomplished by betting AT here?
For that matter, what's accomplished by betting QQ? You stop people from (most) bluffing, but you don't get called by worse nor do you get folds from better or even anything with substantial equity.
As played, I think I'd either fold river or maybe even soul read and fold flop. I don't see any reason to think Villain is jamming a pocket pair on the river, and it's not obvious to me that he would bet the flop with it either.
July 9, 2015
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Thanks for the replies. Normaly I try to break it down myself when I post a hand. I did that too yesterday after posting the hand. But an error accoured and I lost all content in the post. TILT!
I will do it again later tonight.
I try to play as balanced as I can. I would have Ax kombos in my c/c range for sure.
I think Foucault nails it allthough I dont see myself folding QQ on the flop.
I might overfold the turn perhaps if I think he wouldnt bluff enough here. But I dont think I have enough reasons to think that.
July 9, 2015
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Ok here goes.
This could be my preflop range.
On the flop my ranges has 146 kombos after card removal.
I would probably check this range:
78 kombos: KK-66, AdAh, AdAc, AhAc, AdJd, AhJh, AcJc, KdJd, KhJh, QdJd, QhJh, AdTd, AhTh, AcTc, JdTd, JhTh, Ad3d, Ah3h, Ac3c, Ad2d, Ah2h, Ac2c, AdJh, AdJs, AdJc, AhJd, AhJs, AhJc, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs
On the flop the pot is 5428 and villain bets 2420. So we need to defend 69% of our range for him not to auto profit. But since some of the bluffs still has equity i belive we have to defend a bit more when we call and not raise, right?
My c/c range on the flop would be these 60 kombos:
KK-88, AdAh, AdAc, AhAc, AdJd, AhJh, AcJc, AdTd, AhTh, AcTc, Ad3d, Ah3h, Ac3c, Ad2d, Ah2h, Ac2c, AdJh, AdJs, AdJc, AhJd, AhJs, AhJc, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs
After card removal I have 51 kombos.
Pot is now 10.268 and villain bets 4680. We need to defend at least 69% again.
I call with these 39 kombos:
KK-TT, AdAc, AdJd, AcJc, AdTd, AcTc, Ad3d, Ac3c, Ad2d, Ac2c, AdJh, AdJs, AdJc, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs
36 kombos left on the river. Pot 19.628 and villain bets 9170. We need to defend at least 68% of our range meaning 25 kombos.
If we fold all jacks and queens we have 24 kombos left. So QQ here is close. If we do call with some of our queens, I think it shoul be the ones that doesnt block villains missed FDs.
Neither call or fold on the river would be a mistake i guess.
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December 6, 2012
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Very nice work here. Really – I know this is tedious stuff, I have a hard time convincing myself to do such in-depth analysis.
You’ve done such a good job that I want to point out a few complications/further considerations:
1. The first and most important one is that Villain is betting into two people on the flop. When you find that he’ll auto-profit on bluffs if you don’t defend 69%, you are forgetting that sometimes BB will call or raise, so his bluffs won’t show a profit even if you fold more than this.
2. Make sure you consider Villain’s starting range as well. If V has a strong starting range and there is an Ace on the flop, it’s sometimes the case that he simply doesn’t have enough air in his range to exploit you with bluffs. In other words, it can be correct to fold even if you know V will always fire his air simply because there isn’t much of it relative to his value range (in such cases V should use small sizing and check some seemingly strong hands, such as top pair with a weak kicker – this is basically the strategy you’re playing as the UTG raiser on this board, in fact).
3. You are to consider that Villain’s bluffs may have equity against you, but cutting against that fact is the fact that his checks are not 0 EV with many of his potential bluffs. You don’t have to call often enough to betting 88 0 EV for the Villain, just enough to make betting no better for him than checking. This is related to the reason why betting QQ on the flop is not a good idea – it’s not that the bet would have lower than 0 EV, just that it would not produce higher EV than checking. In cases where Villain also has the option to make profitable checks, you don’t have to defend as much. This is why it matters a lot how much air (hands that are close to 0 EV to check) Villain can have.
4. You conclude “Neither call or fold on the river would be a mistake i guess. ” If Villain is bluffing and value betting well, this should be true. You have the sort of hand he should be trying to make indifferent (he can’t make you indifferent to calling with an A).
July 9, 2015
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Very good points and thanks for taking the time!
I cant believe i missed the fact that we were 3-way to the flop. Obv that means I dont have to defend that wide on the flop, since we are two players to defend against the bet. This would make QQ a fold on the river and I did in fact fold.
In theori I dont want to make asumptions and guess villains range. My analyse is based on an unknown villain. That said, I think hes range is more pair heavy than Ax, given the flop being Axx and I having QQ. AQ+ and AJs+ and PP.
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December 6, 2012
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Mr Longhit said:
In theori I dont want to make asumptions and guess villains range. My analyse is based on an unknown villain. That said, I think hes range is more pair heavy than Ax, given the flop being Axx and I having QQ. AQ+ and AJs+ and PP.
This is IMO the case for folding flop. Based on the strength of his calling range, you'd have to think he's betting like 88 into two people.
July 9, 2015
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Not sure i agree/understand that.
If villain has so few combos of Ax because of my blockers and the texture, shouldnt I use that info to my advantage and bluff catch here? Shouldnt he be more likely to bluff than valuebet.
Given he is balanced, he is more likely to turn up with one of hes bluff hands here.
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December 6, 2012
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Mr Longhit said:
Not sure i agree/understand that.
If villain has so few combos of Ax because of my blockers and the texture, shouldnt I use that info to my advantage and bluff catch here? Shouldnt he be more likely to bluff than valuebet.
Given he is balanced, he is more likely to turn up with one of hes bluff hands here.
You're saying his range for seeing flop is mostly Ax and pairs, right? So the only hands he can “bluff” with are pocket pairs which are not very good for bluffing. The point I mean to get at is just that V won't have a lot of air in his range when he sees this flop.
July 9, 2015
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I get your point now.
But my guess of V's range could be wrong. He might have better bluff candidates than hes PPs.
But one thing should be sure. He doesnt have many value hands.
And if he doesnt think Im balanced here, he might bet hes PPs for protection.
I dont like all this guessing, so I think i will stick to the GTO ish approach here.
Dont think he would bet hes PPs on the turn though since there is not much to protect against in my range.
Turn is probably a fold.
June 2, 2012
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I'm curious, if hero gets to the river with that range of 36 combos by check calling flop and turn, would calling with A2, A3 and even AJ for that matter be any better or different than calling with QQ on the river? What value hands are in villains range? Is AJ ahead of villains value range or is it a bluff catcher just as much as QQ would be? Is it possible villain could be turning an Ax hand into a bluff? How come no one is considering that villain has a missed flush draw? Isn't it very plausible that after hero checks flop, villain takes an aggresive line with a flush draw and bombs all in on the river when he misses?
One thing I want to understand better is, we know what “our” range is, but what is our perceived range to Villain. It's not likely that they match 100%. So, one question might be is Villain trying to get me off of A6-A9 even though those hands aren't actually in our range?
Great analysis btw.
December 24, 2013
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I have a question about our check back range if we tweak the preflop ranges a bit. If our preflop range was around the same %, but instead of suited wheel aces, I had more suited 1 gappers, thereby having a smaller ratio of Ax to anything else, would I still want to have like ATs AJo in my check/call range? It feels like the reasoning would carry over. I feel I have glossed over this in low low spr situations in mtts (like 3bs or 4b pots where we get really good odds to see 3 due to sizing). In a low spr situation, checking with top pair screams like it makes sense to me because I'm often getting a stab from air and getting in vs any piece. However, in a deeper stack situation, would it make sense to ck/call that chunk of the range so I can also ck/call pairs? I think I sometimes go overboard when oop vs decent players and end up ck/calling too many high cards because their cbet when checked to stat is inflated. As I say that though, I can think of many situations where I'd open like KQs on the hijack, flop A33, check/call the flop, and win after it checks through. I know I've gone so far as to have middling air (some backdoors) and choosing to ck/call flop stab river instead of putting in 3bets oops. I don't at all like going on what I think is feel, but sometimes those kinds of situations cry out to me.
All that said, if we're simply heads up, would it make sense to bet JJ+ twice and ck/fold on river against villains who seem to have a clue but probably don't bluff enough there? We're getting a value bet out of king highs and lower pocket pairs. I see how you'd be exposed to bluffs vs villains who will have flush draws and other things, but there just seem like there would be more combos of pp than draws+aceX+sets like 6 combos of sets, 18ish combos of Ax, maybe 4 kinds of flush draws? then 55-TT is 36 combos.
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December 6, 2012
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PokerWilo said:
I'm curious, if hero gets to the river with that range of 36 combos by check calling flop and turn, would calling with A2, A3 and even AJ for that matter be any better or different than calling with QQ on the river? What value hands are in villains range? Is AJ ahead of villains value range or is it a bluff catcher just as much as QQ would be? Is it possible villain could be turning an Ax hand into a bluff? How come no one is considering that villain has a missed flush draw? Isn't it very plausible that after hero checks flop, villain takes an aggresive line with a flush draw and bombs all in on the river when he misses?
One thing I want to understand better is, we know what “our” range is, but what is our perceived range to Villain. It's not likely that they match 100%. So, one question might be is Villain trying to get me off of A6-A9 even though those hands aren't actually in our range?
Great analysis btw.
The nice thing about playing your own range in a balanced way is that you don't have to guess at V's range. The whole point is to prevent him from profiting from any strategy. So you will call enough that he can't profit by bluffing but not so often that he does better by checking his air than by betting it.
You're right that A2 and QQ will lose to the same hands on the river. There is nevertheless a very good reason why A2 is a better bluff-catcher than QQ. Think about it a bit and I think it will occur to you.
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December 6, 2012
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jacob,
Balancing perfectly is really, really complicated. Check out Expert Heads Up NLHE or Applications of NLHE for examples.
It's often the case that for hands on the margins (eg the worst hands you would value bet or best hands you would bluff-catch with), the difference between playing them one way vs the other is 0 or very close to 0. What ends up mattering, when you are unsure about your opponent's strategy, is your frequencies. If you always fold your pure bluff-catchers, you won't lose anything vs a balanced opponent and you'll actually make money vs one who bluffs too little, but you'll lose a lot vs one who bluffs too much. This is true even though at equilibrium the EV of calling and folding are both 0.
In your example, the worst Ace in your range will probably play about as well as a c/c as as a bet. The more bluffs you have in your betting range, the more incentive your opponent has to call you wide on the flop, which makes it easier for you to get value from weaker top pair hands. The more folds you have in your checking range, the more incentive your opponent has to bluff you, and thus the more value there is for the non-folds in your checking range.
You mention a really good thing, which is c/c with some floats. Many people end up only check-calling pairs or better, which makes it difficult for them to show up with bluffs on the river after the turn checks through and thus difficult to get value from stronger hands in this spot as well.
June 2, 2012
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Foucault said:
PokerWilo said:
I'm curious, if hero gets to the river with that range of 36 combos by check calling flop and turn, would calling with A2, A3 and even AJ for that matter be any better or different than calling with QQ on the river? What value hands are in villains range? Is AJ ahead of villains value range or is it a bluff catcher just as much as QQ would be? Is it possible villain could be turning an Ax hand into a bluff? How come no one is considering that villain has a missed flush draw? Isn't it very plausible that after hero checks flop, villain takes an aggresive line with a flush draw and bombs all in on the river when he misses?
One thing I want to understand better is, we know what “our” range is, but what is our perceived range to Villain. It's not likely that they match 100%. So, one question might be is Villain trying to get me off of A6-A9 even though those hands aren't actually in our range?
Great analysis btw.
The nice thing about playing your own range in a balanced way is that you don't have to guess at V's range. The whole point is to prevent him from profiting from any strategy. So you will call enough that he can't profit by bluffing but not so often that he does better by checking his air than by betting it.
You're right that A2 and QQ will lose to the same hands on the river. There is nevertheless a very good reason why A2 is a better bluff-catcher than QQ. Think about it a bit and I think it will occur to you.
Well bc we have a blocker to a value hand which means less combos of value hands villain can have. So yes Ax is a better bluff catcher than QQ even tho they both beat the same hands. Much like OP pointed out that QQ, if on the fence here, it would be better to call with combos of QQ that do not block villains missed flush draws.
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